SIO: 1: Tropical Low (was Invest 98S)

[Subtrop]

98S INVEST 220421 0000 10.7S 103.3E SHEM 15 1007

[Hurricane2021]

according to GFS... This system could be the next and last Major Cyclone in the 2021-22 Southern Hemisphere cyclone season, while EURO shows little to no development

May be named as Anggrek or Darian.

[doomhaMwx]

This sure looks like a TC already with that banding and all. No scatterometer data to confirm the intensity, but a nearby buoy happened to record a SLP of 1002-03mb at 08Z today (compared to central pressure of 1007mb indicated in the ATCF). TCWC Jakarta is ignoring it either.

98S INVEST 220424 1200 12.9S 98.9E SHEM 20 1007
98S INVEST 220424 0600 12.2S 99.4E SHEM 20 1007

[wxman57]

It appears to be at least a depression, though scatterometers have missed it for the past 24 hours. Australia BoM appears intent on not issuing advisories, as it will likely peak today then begin to weaken. They require TS wind to wrap over half way around the center for an upgrade to a TS, and they generally don't bother with depressions. Next scatterometer passes will occur in the net hour or two. May get some confirmation on its winds then.

[doomhaMwx]

Finally, a good pass from HY-2C. Winds are at least 30kts. I wonder if it will be sufficient to trigger an upgrade from JTWC.



Update: ASCAT also passed over the system several hours later and found 35-40kt winds east of the LLCC.