EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Close-up view of the weak circulation.

[WiscoWx02]

Close-up view of the weak circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/c9j2VEo.gif

Definitely a surface low but convection to the north stealing all of it’s thunder Waiting to see if the diminishing of that convection that we are witnessing will allow this low to take over convection wise.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1540708646174195712




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1540725959149514755

[InfernoFlameCat]

That LLc means a lot. This system will be able to hold together and it’s chances of dissipating before becoming a tropical cyclone have substantially decreased.

[cycloneye]

2 PM.

Tropical Atlantic:
The low-level wind field associated with a tropical wave located
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become better defined
today, but the wave is only producing limited shower activity.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
during the early to middle part of next week. This system is
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across
the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[zzh]

[WiscoWx02]

Looks like nothing but a naked swirl as of right now. Has a long way to go before it reaches more favorable conditions. Tonight will be a moment of truth on its chances of holding on until it reaches those conditions most likely.

EDIT: HWRF shows convection beginning to fire within that circulation this evening after the sunsets out there...actually believe that's a logical possibility because I can't count the number of times anemic storms suddenly come to life after the sunsets in the Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

Circulation looks good but yeah needs convection. Let's see if it refire's tonight.

[cycloneye]

Too Weak.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94L)

B. 25/1730Z

C. 7.9N

D. 36.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM NO LONGER MAINTAINS PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAKING
THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS LESS THAN
1.0. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN AND SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR REGENERATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[Kingarabian]

Usually these pulse convection without a well defined LLC. This has been doing the opposite all morning.

[zzh]

Still a little misaligned.

[aspen]

Circulation looks good but yeah needs convection. Let's see if it refire's tonight.

12z HWRF expects a much healthier looking wave by tomorrow morning with some convection popping tonight. It did do a decent job initializing it as pretty anemic.

[zzh]

Decent circulation. Just needs convection

[cheezyWXguy]

A couple new pops of convection over the circulation center as the sun sets. Nothing impressive on IR, but maybe it’s the start of what the hwrf was showing.

[WiscoWx02]

A couple new pops of convection over the circulation center as the sun sets. Nothing impressive on IR, but maybe it’s the start of what the hwrf was showing.

Noticed that as well. Have been watching the cumulus field on the southeast side most of the day. Right on cue as the sun starts to set.

[wxman57]

I'm not concerned about how it looks today. I had said it would lose convection after it started accelerating westward yesterday. I don't really think it'll slow down much until it passes 75W, so it may have a hard time organizing until it reaches the SW Caribbean. Still reminds me of Cesar in 1996. With that track, I'll have a 4-day 4th of July weekend. Fine with me.

[cycloneye]

Let's see what happens at DMAX.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Do you guys think we in Barbados can have a repeat of Elsa last year with 94L

[ChrisH-UK]

Last look before sun down. 94L is looking a bit bare, the wave in front looks in better condition and is showing signs of curling up, the wave behind that is also starting to spin is looking a bit bare like 94L. There's a good circulation on both but the convection activity has dropped, i would guess they will pick up again as they approach the Caribbean.

[Visioen]

Lol my brother lives in Nicaragua. Not along the coast though, he'll prob be fine.
Still would've liked for 94L to take it's business elsewhere.
We'll see.