ATL: EARL - Models

[skyline385]

It’s pretty hard to get a SFL hit here if steering collapses, but the trend is worrying.

Jesus, the Bahamas with Dorian 2.0

Agree. If steering collapses it will find any little pinhole weakness possible and start N. That’s what we’ll organized TC’s do.

The problem will be its location when the collapse happens. Its already getting plenty close to SFL and if it collapses over it, then it will most likely be a worst case scenario.

[lsuhurricane]

Euro Ensembles strongly favor a recurve.

[gatorcane]

End of 12z ECMWF looks like the start of a counter-clockwise loop, had the run gone out farther thinking it would start heading northeast. That is one timely ridge over Florida to “save the day” if it verifies, haven’t really seen that type of ridge much this summer.

[tarheelprogrammer]

End of 12z ECMWF looks like the start of a counter-clockwise loop, had the run gone out farther thinking it would start heading northeast, that is what timely ridge over Florida to “save the day” if it verifies, haven’t really seen that type of ridge much this summer.

Timely to say the least but the most likely outcome in most scenarios like this. Still time to change but we have all seen this song and dance before.

[Nimbus]

It’s pretty hard to get a SFL hit here if steering collapses, but the trend is worrying.

Jesus, the Bahamas with Dorian 2.0

At 25N these storms recurve on their own unless they are trapped under the east side of a ridge.
But usually we see a front or at least a short wave move off the east coast periodically so I'm not looking for this yet.

[Iceresistance]

It’s pretty hard to get a SFL hit here if steering collapses, but the trend is worrying.

Jesus, the Bahamas with Dorian 2.0

We're also at the letter D too. This may be the same storm track but with a different D, literally!

[toad strangler]

It’s pretty hard to get a SFL hit here if steering collapses, but the trend is worrying.

Jesus, the Bahamas with Dorian 2.0

Agree. If steering collapses it will find any little pinhole weakness possible and start N. That’s what we’ll organized TC’s do.

The problem will be its location when the collapse happens. Its already getting plenty close to SFL and if it collapses over it, then it will most likely be a worst case scenario.

Ya, location means everything as the Bahama’s would attest to. I just don’t believe any steering past 3-5 days and that’s stretching it. I’ll never forget Matthew. Models kept shifting W for days and days after showing many runs of a safe re-curve.

Bottoms line is nobody on this planet knows anything beyond the near term. Just have to track it! With the understanding that a recurve away from the SE CONUS would be textbook climatology.

[skyline385]

HAFS-S running now

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1563969377690607619

[Spacecoast]

Euro Ensembles strongly favor a recurve.

[Meteorcane]

Some good news for CONUS interests is that the EPS mean 500mb pattern still supports a general SW shunting of the western Atlantic ridge in the long term with below normal heights then favored in the western Atlantic (which would favor a weakness developing allowing the system to go north/northeast). This setup results in the bulk of the EPS cyclone tracks recurving OTS east of the CONUS. That being said even using ensemble averaged fields it is difficult to have high confidence in the synoptic setup beyond about 6-7 days so it will bear watching in the meantime.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

EPS control run is over South Florida and stalls as a rather potent hurricane.

[skyline385]

Agree. If steering collapses it will find any little pinhole weakness possible and start N. That’s what we’ll organized TC’s do.

The problem will be its location when the collapse happens. Its already getting plenty close to SFL and if it collapses over it, then it will most likely be a worst case scenario.

Ya, location means everything as the Bahama’s would attest to. I just don’t believe any steering past 3-5 days and that’s stretching it. I’ll never forget Matthew. Models kept shifting W for days and days after showing many runs of a safe re-curve.

Bottoms line is nobody on this planet knows anything beyond the near term. Just have to track it! With the understanding that a recurve away from the SE CONUS would be textbook climatology.

For me, even 3-5 days is too much. As we have seen time and time again, steering currents can change even 24-48 hours out which is why we have the NHC cone. The models right now only serve to tell us a general location where the system will end up. It is going to vary a lot between now and next week.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[skyline385]

It’s pretty hard to get a SFL hit here if steering collapses, but the trend is worrying.

Jesus, the Bahamas with Dorian 2.0

Agree. If steering collapses it will find any little pinhole weakness possible and start N. That’s what we’ll organized TC’s do.

The problem will be its location when the collapse happens. Its already getting plenty close to SFL and if it collapses over it, then it will most likely be a worst case scenario.

EPS 12Z, that Control member stalling over FLL and cutting though the peninsula up north is the scenario I was talking about lol



Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[toad strangler]

The problem will be its location when the collapse happens. Its already getting plenty close to SFL and if it collapses over it, then it will most likely be a worst case scenario.

Ya, location means everything as the Bahama’s would attest to. I just don’t believe any steering past 3-5 days and that’s stretching it. I’ll never forget Matthew. Models kept shifting W for days and days after showing many runs of a safe re-curve.

Bottoms line is nobody on this planet knows anything beyond the near term. Just have to track it! With the understanding that a recurve away from the SE CONUS would be textbook climatology.

For me, even 3-5 days is too much. As we have seen time and time again, steering currents can change even 24-48 hours out which is why we have the NHC cone. The models right now only serve to tell us a general location where the system will end up. It is going to vary a lot between now and next week.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

Which is why I said 3-5 is stretching it. Sometimes the set up is not as tricky and models can hone in at the latter part of my stated range. But if dicey steering is at hand it’s almost a nowcasting type of tracking.

[aspen]

Agree. If steering collapses it will find any little pinhole weakness possible and start N. That’s what we’ll organized TC’s do.

The problem will be its location when the collapse happens. Its already getting plenty close to SFL and if it collapses over it, then it will most likely be a worst case scenario.

EPS 12Z, that one member stalling over FLL and cutting though the peninsula up north is the scenario I was talking about lolhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220828/ea9ef74b3a5132cf68b7fe56ca6c9937.jpg

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

A track like the ensemble mean would be great — it would avoid the Caribbean, Bahamas, SEUS, and Bermuda while passing through a large swath of >28.5C SSTs for at least a week. If 91L survives the dry air in its path and goes on that recurve track, it could have some serious ACE potential. We get some tropical eye candy for the first time in ages, hurricane-weary land areas are spared, everyone’s happy.

Please don’t be another Dorian and stall over the Bahamas for 2-3 days.

[Spacecoast]

18z GFS...

[AutoPenalti]

18z GFS...
https://i.ibb.co/sjSdNDq/ed4.gif

Another shift south?

[SouthFLTropics]

Am I seeing things or did the GFS just plow straight through a ridge?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LarryWx]

Based on many of the EPS members also slowing down nearby at 240 hours with similar H5 and then mainly recurving safely offshore the US once resuming movement after 240, I feel that the storm would very likely have recurved offshore the US had the 12Z Euro gone past 240 hours. You can also kind of tell by looking over N America at H5/sfc at 240 on the Euro op.

 But this is merely speculation on what's already very speculative, the 240 hour position on an operational run. Things will surely change quite a bit over the next few days even though as of this moment staying OTS probably has a slight advantage as of now imho.