ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

HH is less than 100 miles from the coast. They have to find it sometime.

if you look at the wind direction they already passed it to the east. At least a larger Vort that direction

[GCANE]

Seeing an east to west moving tower with a hot spot in front of it.

[Iceresistance]

Recon has found a closed LLC

[GCANE]

Seeing an east to west moving tower with a hot spot in front of it.

Off-the-scale rain rate with that tower.

[GCANE]

Recon has found a closed LLC

Karl, son of Julia.
Who would have thought she would turn into a GoM system?

[Zonacane]

Looks like Karl has formed

[Iceresistance]

Recon has found a closed LLC

Karl, son of Julia.
Who would have thought she would turn into a GoM system?

Karl might be called the "Ghost of Julia"

[Aric Dunn]

Recon has found a closed LLC

They found a weak vort/eddy likely rotating around a much larger circ the NW

[wxman57]

That LLC is well-removed from the convection where they found the TS wind, about 150 miles away. Winds were well below TS strength within 100 miles of the weak LLC, and those TS winds were not really part of the circulation. What will the NHC do? They'll call it Karl.

[Aric Dunn]

REcon flying around in the void between eddy's/vorts.

[tropicwatch]

Recon has found a closed LLC

They found a weak vort/eddy likely rotating around a much larger circ the NW

https://i.ibb.co/QDjDFCQ/poop.png

Looks like they are checking that out now.

[zzzh]

Recon confirmed what I said earlier.

[Buck]

That LLC is well-removed from the convection where they found the TS wind, about 150 miles away. Winds were well below TS strength within 100 miles of the weak LLC, and those TS winds were not really part of the circulation. What will the NHC do? They'll call it Karl.

Technically, that would still meet the criteria for them to name it.

[wxman57]

That LLC is well-removed from the convection where they found the TS wind, about 150 miles away. Winds were well below TS strength within 100 miles of the weak LLC, and those TS winds were not really part of the circulation. What will the NHC do? They'll call it Karl.

Technically, that would still meet the criteria for them to name it.

I think that the requirement is for a minimum of one LLC? It's a mess. Models had all initialized a center closer to 20N/95W.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep vort to the SE is just rotating around larger LLC to the north. now we just wait..

with convection popping over the northern LLC. should see in consolidate shortly.

[zzzh]

Looks like it just got named Karl. lol

[Iceresistance]

Looks like it just got named Karl. lol

It's still Invest 93L until the NHC puts out Advisory #1 for either TD 14 or TS Karl.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it just got named Karl. lol

It's still Invest 93L until the NHC puts out Advisory #1 for either TD 14 or TS Karl.

It is Karl.

[wxman57]

First NHC track will look like the TVCN (consensus) below, but likely without the flip north at the end. That northward turn may be caused by missing model data toward the end of the plot. Green numbers are date and CDT time (24 hr clock). First point is 11/13, which would be the 11th (today) at 1300 CDT.

http://wxman57.com/images/TVCN-Karl.JPG

[Aric Dunn]

Keep flying recon keep flying.. dont leave yet. turn more to the north/nnw..