ATL: NICOLE - Models

[Blown Away]

A closer look at the latest 0z TVCN consensus model.

https://i.imgur.com/ed8zZG0.gif

18z GFS & EURO are at least 50 miles S at the FL landfall point and they both bury into FL Peninsula compared to the TVCN’s skimming E coast. Unusual to see that big of a spread

Euro is a bit closer to the TVCN - it’s hard for me to tell on the low res but it kinda looks like Ft. pierce and GFS looks like Stuart. The Canadian skews the average making landfall around the space coast

18z Euro landfall @WPB and 00z early TVCN is N of Vero, that’s @70 miles!

[gatorcane]

00z model suite.

https://i.imgur.com/ZmSUkc0.png

Just a couple of shifts away from it recurving just off the FL east coast with no landfall in the US.

[InfernoFlameCat]

00z model suite.

https://i.imgur.com/ZmSUkc0.png

Just a couple of shifts away from it recurving just off the FL east coast with no landfall in the US.

I believe the TVCN will shift West with the Euro and GFS. It is getting skewed by some other weaker models right now. Granted, the gfs could also be a skew, but I trust it over most other models.

[Coolcruiseman]

A closer look at the latest 0z TVCN consensus model.

https://i.imgur.com/ed8zZG0.gif

There is your current hurricane center track, they stick to that track as close as they possibly can without going against common sense

Looks to be around Sebastian about 20-30 minutes south of my location. Guess it's time to buckle up.

[WiscoWx02]

Weakening trend in most of the models as well I've noticed through the day today.

[ronjon]

00z model suite.

https://i.imgur.com/ZmSUkc0.png

Just a couple of shifts away from it recurving just off the FL east coast with no landfall in the US.

Umm...with the Euro, GFS, and UKMET all pretty close to landfall point on the Florida east coast and them all taking it w-nw across the peninsula to near the Gulf coast, I'd say unlikely at this point. With tomorrow's model runs, we'll be at 72 hours or less to landfall. Should be pretty certain by then if they continue to converge on Stuart-WPB area landfall.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, the end of the 18Z UKMET (hour 60) is 50 miles NE of the 12Z's hour 66 along with a slightly weaker upper ridge to the NW. This implies to me that the 18Z probably would have landfalled on FL N of the 12Z's Stuart area.

[tolakram]

This is the Euro 0z and 12z trend.


18Z


ICON


GFS


ICON and UKMET are NOT the best models and the NHC has stats to prove it. It pains me to see people come to the models thread and start hugging a model that agrees with their ideas instead of trying to stay objective.

[tolakram]

One more, the 0/12Z Euro trend a little later in the run.

[Blown Away]

This is the Euro 0z and 12z trend.
https://i.imgur.com/hOfK3Aj.gif

18Z
https://i.imgur.com/1O6RLaQ.png

ICON
https://i.imgur.com/BXnbn6a.gif

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/75Ut7ue.gif

ICON and UKMET are NOT the best models and the NHC has stats to prove it. It pains me to see people come to the models thread and start hugging a model that agrees with their ideas instead of trying to stay objective.

The 00z early TVCN went rogue and shows skimming Central FL coast and a recurve while majority of the 18z globals are well south and WNW into FL Peninsula. That’s the chatter.

[tolakram]

Here's the latest UKMET run


Here was the UKIE yesterday

[ThunderForce]

Pretty weird that the 00z track consensus doesn't seem to match the 18z or 12z operational models for GFS and Euro. The 18z and 12z GFS and 12z Euro feature this storm making it at least near the west coast and Gulf before curving north to north-northeastward.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Pretty weird that the 00z track consensus doesn't seem to match the 18z or 12z operational models for GFS and Euro. The 18z and 12z GFS and 12z Euro feature this storm making it at least near the west coast and Gulf before curving north to north-northeastward.

simple answer, the CMC and ICON.

[eastcoastFL]

I was looking at the HWRF and HMON. Those two still plow right across the state pretty far into the gulf before turning north towards the panhandle and big bend.

[Pelicane]

Latest ICON was weaker but trended west. Instead of riding up the coast it travels inland across the peninsula.

[LarryWx]

0Z ICON comes well inland into FL instead of skirting the coast due to stronger ridging to the NW and N.

[Spacecoast]

Isn't the position error (for TVCN,UKM,CEM2,AVNO, ECMO) at 96 hours approx 150 miles?

That's also the width of the FL peninsula, so east coast vs west coast are within a reasonable margin of error as the storm tracks N in four days.
Also, this isn't a straight line forecast track. It's a sideways 'S' track, so they all may have an even higher position error, since 3 'curves' have to be predicted correctly.

Regardless, the impact area is very large, and encompasses most of FL.
4-6" of rain, and Tropical storm force winds (10m) seem likely. Perhaps stronger..

[chaser1]

Given the baroclinic type system at hand (as well as further insight to nuanced pattern change over the CONUS), I took a look at the latest 0Z NAM. It's been quite steady and still calling for a 987 storm to come in around Vero around 6Z Thurs

[Blown Away]

0Z ICON comes well inland into FL instead of skirting the coast due to stronger ridging to the NW and N.

Big shift W.

Larry noticing many models going over Peninsula are actually dropping in mb, 00z ICON, 18z EURO??

[SFLcane]

Um holy moly… this is Andy’s model which did very well with Ian.