ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Good recon went through eddy #1 and are moving on..

[chris_fit]

...12Z GFS is smoking that crack again. Worst model for this storm.

It might be trying some stronger things than crack, Sir.

[aspen]

Recon has found a possible weak LLC at ~14.1N/75.6W. Doesn’t seem like Ian has strengthened or organized all that much since the last flight.

[cycloneye]

There is the center. Or maybe another one they find later?

[psyclone]

Ian is looking good now with nice rotation and feathery outflow getting established. I believe the NHC when they forecast a period of rapid intensification. Conditions ahead + calendar and location...

[verruckt]

I think the recent batch of models are off their rocker.

We will probably have a better idea come late tonight / tomorrow morning once some recon data gets ingested.

[eastcoastFL]

On microwave imagery you get a good look at its development the past 24 hours

[eastcoastFL]

I think the recent batch of models are off their rocker.

We will probably have a better idea come late tonight / tomorrow morning once some recon data gets ingested.

They’re as good as the data they receive. They’ll have much better data now that recon is in the storm.

[skyline385]

Webb has been saying how Ian sliding west reminds him of Ivan, well the similarities are definitely there

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Webb has been saying how Ian sliding west reminds him of Ivan, well the similarities are definitely there

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Ivan.gif

Lets hope this happens

Unlike Ivan, the atomosphere in the northern gulf doesnt appear to favor a strong storm

[otowntiger]

On microwave imagery you get a good look at its development the past 24 hours

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/last24hrs.gif

that’s always a very cool look. But what it’s showing me is there looks like very little development has occurred over the last 24 hours- pretty much as expected.

[caneman]

There is the center. Or maybe another one they find later?

https://i.imgur.com/cAybfEa.png

Sure looks like it's closer to 15 to me.

[SoupBone]

Minor changes to Ian's position now are not so significant. Major weather feature will be a deepening trof across the central and western Gulf this week. No matter where Ian tracks in the Caribbean, it's not crossing the upper wind flow. That flow would take it to Florida. 12Z GFS is smoking that crack again. Worst model for this storm.

Seeing you post this is pretty awesome and hilarious. I'm still concerned with these west shifts as it puts more of Tampa under a larger storm surge.

[Sanibel]

It's admittedly dart-throwing but a weak center is a perfect set up for the current manifesting SW center suddenly sensing the trough tomorrow and switching to the more north Euro center and track with a huge swing back east with the models...

[Aric Dunn]

There is the center. Or maybe another one they find later?

https://i.imgur.com/cAybfEa.png

Sure looks like it's closer to 15 to me.

What they flew through is very likely just a weak vort rotating around. 13.5 - 13.9N 76 west is where they need to fly...

[Category5Kaiju]

Webb has been saying how Ian sliding west reminds him of Ivan, well the similarities are definitely there

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Ivan.gif

I totally forgot how wide the cones were back in the early 2000s. Compared to now we've really gone long ways about improving cones of uncertainty.

[MJGarrison]

There is the center. Or maybe another one they find later?

https://i.imgur.com/cAybfEa.png

Sure looks like it's closer to 15 to me.

What they flew through is very likely just a weak vort rotating around. 13.5 - 13.9N 76 west is where they need to fly...

They did fly near there….just looks like it may be the bottom of an elongated circulation?


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[Iceresistance]

ADT Raw T is at 3.8 with a .7T constraint.

I think that Ian might be starting to RI or something, but we can only be sure when recon gets there!

[ronjon]

Minor changes to Ian's position now are not so significant. Major weather feature will be a deepening trof across the central and western Gulf this week. No matter where Ian tracks in the Caribbean, it's not crossing the upper wind flow. That flow would take it to Florida. 12Z GFS is smoking that crack again. Worst model for this storm.

Seeing you post this is pretty awesome and hilarious. I'm still concerned with these west shifts as it puts more of Tampa under a larger storm surge.

The west shifts are all plausible as GFS is really intensifying IAN into a CAT 4/5 over the GOM. It has consistently lifted out the east coast trough faster (by 24 hours vs the Euro). The GFS is rebuilding the ridge at 500 mb east of Florida as the trough lifts out causing a more N-NW movement in the GOM. Now is this correct? Euro doesn't agree and keeps reloading the trough and makes it deeper. Lets see if 12z Euro moves west at all. 12z ICON shifted west which was the closest model to the Euro solution so lets see before we pronounce the GFS as offbase.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Webb has been saying how Ian sliding west reminds him of Ivan, well the similarities are definitely there

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Ivan.gif

Lets hope this happens

Unlike Ivan, the atomosphere in the northern gulf doesnt appear to favor a strong storm

Don't be too quick to cheer if that happens. Recall that the Gulf was actually quite hostile to Ivan as well, which was weakening on approach, yet its impacts were historic at the time. A stronger storm that misses Cuba and becomes a significant hurricane in the Gulf will not suddenly lose all the kinetic energy associated with it should it begin to weaken. The surge and rain threat will be severe even if the wind threat is not quite as bad. This is not a win scenario for anyone.