ATL: IAN - Models

[blp]

Check out the trend. Don't remember seeing that big of jump inside 7days

[AxaltaRacing24]

That's less than 5 days away too. That's going to have to show up on the first forecast if they call this PTC 9 or TD 9 tomorrow morning (say, at the 5 am advisory).

I was thinking about this. We are going to be forced to prepare early, because the "cone of ratings" will get everybody scrambling by tomorrow night.

[skyline385]

GFS running showing a 957 system moving N through Western Cuba. Florida may be in big big trouble!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2022092300&fh=96

Just completed the turn, headed towards Ft. Meyers probably this run

https://i.imgur.com/T0CfGdq.png

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like just south of Sarasota

[HurricaneBelle]

Landfall in the Sarasota/Bradenton area. This would spare the nightmare Tampa Bay surge scenario but still bring a significant wind event to the area.

[PandaCitrus]

Well the GFS finally caved seems Euro was the winner. Tampa to Naples is under the biggest threat. highest probability probably port charlotte/ft myers cutting across the state like Charley if I had to call it

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS shifted right to Landfall Wednesday morning around Venice or Sarasota, FL

[CrazyC83]

I believe that extra balloon launches to determine the strength of the trough, as well as Gonzo going into the Gulf and western Caribbean, are key now. If that's 5 days away, we need to get a better idea.

[Hurricaneman]

Landfall in the Sarasota/Bradenton area. This would spare the nightmare Tampa Bay surge scenario but still bring a significant wind event to the area.

https://i.imgur.com/hXAXgvd.png

Would also be bad for the theme parks

[sponger]

This is one ugly run. Thank goodness we are five days out!

[PandaCitrus]

I believe that extra balloon launches to determine the strength of the trough, as well as Gonzo going into the Gulf and western Caribbean, are key now. If that's 5 days away, we need to get a better idea.

Do you think Tampa is still under a threat or it won't get that far north?

[CrazyC83]

I believe that extra balloon launches to determine the strength of the trough, as well as Gonzo going into the Gulf and western Caribbean, are key now. If that's 5 days away, we need to get a better idea.

Do you think Tampa is still under a threat or it won't get that far north?

The range remains very wide, but we need more data to narrow it down. It's certainly still in play, but everywhere (almost) in the Gulf and East coasts are.

[AtlanticWind]

CMC coming in with what looks like S. Fla hit

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS is considerably quicker at deepening 98L vs the Euro as well.

[AJC3]

Landfall in the Sarasota/Bradenton area. This would spare the nightmare Tampa Bay surge scenario but still bring a significant wind event to the area.

https://i.imgur.com/hXAXgvd.png

A landfall around Englewood would be really bad surge-wise for Charlotte Harbor (Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda)

[Teban54]

As if that wasn't bad enough, GFS stalls it for 18 hours...

[AdamFirst]

The GFS run would cause a flooding nightmare after landfall. It wants to crawl across the state as it slowly spins down. Some of their ensemble members were alluding to this sort of ENE motion crossing the state.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: 150+ miles further SE track vs 12Z with landfall near Ft Myers at 132 (vs aimed at Big Bend on prior run) and then NE into the peninsula:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 67.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2022 0 13.3N 67.3W 1007 29
1200UTC 23.09.2022 12 14.2N 69.3W 1009 27
0000UTC 24.09.2022 24 14.6N 71.1W 1008 26
1200UTC 24.09.2022 36 14.7N 73.6W 1007 26
0000UTC 25.09.2022 48 15.1N 75.4W 1005 30
1200UTC 25.09.2022 60 15.8N 77.4W 1004 32
0000UTC 26.09.2022 72 17.6N 79.2W 1002 37
1200UTC 26.09.2022 84 20.2N 81.1W 1000 38
0000UTC 27.09.2022 96 22.5N 82.3W 996 32
1200UTC 27.09.2022 108 24.1N 83.2W 994 40
0000UTC 28.09.2022 120 25.4N 83.0W 992 52
1200UTC 28.09.2022 132 26.7N 82.9W 993 45
0000UTC 29.09.2022 144 27.5N 82.0W 996 45

[CrazyC83]

As if that wasn't bad enough, GFS stalls it for 18 hours...

That appears to be because of land interaction weakening making it too weak to be in contact with the trough. This is a very sensitive forecast.

[sma10]

GFS is considerably quicker at deepening 98L vs the Euro as well.

We should also bear in mind that the globals strength is in tracking, not so much intensity. If GFS for example shows 950mb ...well, that tells me watch out.