ATL: IAN - Models

[cheezyWXguy]

GEFS looks like it’s largely clustered near the Sarasota/Tampa area, very near the op. That said, tonight’s model runs basically tell us the whole peninsula is in play. Would expect additional shifts as the system develops, as its track will likely be influenced by how much it strengthens in the next couple of days.

[BobHarlem]

GFS, Icon, and CMC spends Wednesday through Friday dumping rain on Florida. So may be a big deal regardless of exactly where landfall happens.

[caneseddy]

GEFS looks like it’s largely clustered near the Sarasota/Tampa area, very near the op. That said, tonight’s model runs basically tell us the whole peninsula is in play. Would expect additional shifts as the system develops, as its track will likely be influenced by how much it strengthens in the next couple of days.

Agreed..I don’t think the shifts are done..I think Euro shifts back west to around where the 12z run was and the GFS will continue trending south is my feeling…

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[tomatkins]

GEFS looks like it’s largely clustered near the Sarasota/Tampa area, very near the op. That said, tonight’s model runs basically tell us the whole peninsula is in play. Would expect additional shifts as the system develops, as its track will likely be influenced by how much it strengthens in the next couple of days.

Just seems like a really tough forecast even beyond the usual concerns. First there is the will it won't it hit Cuba (and for how much will that weaken it), and then the angle of attack on Florida is always tough (like a few hours off in the timing of the turn can mean dozens of miles of change in the landfall), then you have the timing and location of the stall if that happens (what if it stalls just offshore and drifts north - or crosses then drifts north on the east coast).

Lots of variables for a storm that hasnt even formed yet and which will be there in five days or so.

[chaser1]

CMC rides it up the coast from Ft Myers weakening.

So CMC, GFS, and ICON all show a landfall in Florida followed by a slow northernish motion. Not great.

Just for giggles, throw the NAM in with everyone else.... except it showing an earlier Florida impact with a 12Z Monday position just north of the Cuban coast moving NNW toward the Keys.

[ncapps]

CMC rides it up the coast from Ft Myers weakening.

So CMC, GFS, and ICON all show a landfall in Florida followed by a slow northernish motion. Not great.

Just for giggles, throw the NAM in with everyone else.... except it showing an earlier Florida impact with a 12Z Monday position just north of the Cuban coast moving NNW toward the Keys.

I was looking at that earlier. Maybe similar track to Euro with it missing CONUS or just a near brush with a Cat 1. Would take this sort of solution at this point.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z HWRF gets it down to 934mb west of Florida, let’s see what the HMON shows next

[skyline385]

0z HWRF gets it down to 934mb west of Florida, let’s see what the HMON shows next

Where you seeing that? Cant find a fully loaded HWRF anywhere yet.

[caneseddy]

0z HWRF gets it down to 934mb west of Florida, let’s see what the HMON shows next

I think that’s the 18z run because the 00z run has only gone out to 90 hours..

[cheezyWXguy]

0z HWRF gets it down to 934mb west of Florida, let’s see what the HMON shows next

Where you seeing that? Cant find a fully loaded HWRF anywhere yet.

Ah dang must be getting late. That was the 18z. 0z is out to 90 hours and so far is quite a bit weaker

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF further south or slower and 20mb weaker

ends roughly the same just 20mb weaker

[AutoPenalti]

Euro even weaker, not even a tropical storm. 998mb. Further North.

[Teban54]

Even 0z HWRF is coming to agreement with 0z GFS, CMC and ICON with the general area. We'll see what happens with 0z Euro, and whether models change again in future runs.

Much weaker than last few runs, but it might be too early to say if it's just a fluke or a trend.

[CronkPSU]

Even 0z HWRF is coming to agreement with 0z GFS, CMC and ICON with the general area. We'll see what happens with 0z Euro, and whether models change again in future runs.

Much weaker than last few runs, but it might be too early to say if it's just a fluke or a trend.
https://i.postimg.cc/gcfVm2vH/image.png

still a sub 960 storm right off the coast...not great

[BobHarlem]

0z euro, very very slight left shift from 12z.



Moves out (doesn't stall like the others)

[AxaltaRacing24]

0z euro.

https://i.imgur.com/8B1b7gT.png

Moves out (doesn't stall like the others)
https://i.imgur.com/yeT9UGJ.png

Yeah. Anywhere from the keys to the big bend was in play tonight.

[Bocadude85]

0z Euro brings a strengthening storm through the keys and then NE across SW Florida.

[BobHarlem]

Exits Florida here:





Euro is slightly slower than 12z, arrives in SW Florida early Wednesday instead of Tuesday night. And 0z is much closer to Naples than 12z. Exit point on the east is a little further north also. Then clips outer banks quite a bit stronger, and slams into Long island after that.

[Teban54]

Friendly reminder of Euro's weak bias and how it can affect track in this case:
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1573125286744449024



I really can't see Euro's intensity play out, especially given the organization trends today.

[Teban54]

Meanwhile, Euro wants a Long Island Express.