ATL: FIONA - Models

[SFLcane]

Find those bending westward eps members rather interesting in the bahamas.

[LadyBug72]

So the Euro with a general left/west bias recurves early, GFS with a recurve bias goes up the coast, and Canadian with a general east/right bias goes into the Gulf

And here we are stuck in the middle!

[SFLcane]

Hmmm…

[pgoss11]

Hmmm…

https://i.postimg.cc/bJxYh3Tm/CAA63840-D263-44-FC-A7-C6-C60206-E08-E5-A.jpg

Still a long way to go with this one. Those westward bends could be trouble.

[Emmett_Brown]

The 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro take a powerful typhoon Merbok into the Bearing Sea between Alaska and Russia by 18Z Friday as a sub 945mb low, which is a very powerful storm for this time of year in the Bearing sea. The GFS and Euro seem to agree on Merbok's strength and speed of motion through the next 100 hours, and their upper air pattern looks pretty similar. But, the GFS is a lot slower with the motion of TD7 than the Euro. It will be interesting to see if Merbok actually get's that strong as an extratropical low, and if this would change the downstream pattern if it doesn't verify.

[Blown Away]

12z EPS.
Seems if TD7 deepens below @980 mb before @70W the trough will catch TD7 and push N. If TD7 remains somewhat shallow >980 mb past 70W when it moves off Hispaniola/Cuba the building high pressure may block TD7 into Bahamas, FL, GOM or mid Atlantic? If the second scenario plays out when TD or TS moves off Cuba/Hispaniola, lots of blues/reds indicating a very good environment for strengthening under the high pressure. JMHO

[tolakram]

12Z Euro run

[AtlanticWind]

Gfs 18z a little south and faster

[sma10]

Gfs 18z a little south and faster

Yeah up to 138 hrs and the system is significantly south of the 12z GFS and 12z Euro

[tolakram]

The solution looks very similar to euro, timing aside.

[BobHarlem]

So far the 18z track on the GFS is more similar to the 6z than 12z, but stronger than 6z.

[Blown Away]

The solution looks very similar to euro, timing aside.

https://i.imgur.com/5uwezyn.png

GFS big SW shift at @162 hours and still quite a bit slower than Euro. Amazing how Hispaniola just devours tropical systems.

[Nimbus]

https://i.imgur.com/xD2jzrg.jpg
12z EPS.
Seems if TD7 deepens below @980 mb before @70W the trough will catch TD7 and push N. If TD7 remains somewhat shallow >980 mb past 70W when it moves off Hispaniola/Cuba the building high pressure may block TD7 into Bahamas, FL, GOM or mid Atlantic? If the second scenario plays out when TD or TS moves off Cuba/Hispaniola, lots of blues/reds indicating a very good environment for strengthening under the high pressure. JMHO

There is a recon flight scheduled for early tomorrow afternoon eastern time.
Radiosondes will have clear data about things like humidity and shear for all the different column levels.
Models should start to agree a little better once they get a better grip on the potential.

[gatorcane]

The GFS shows a clear weakness over Florida and the SW Atlantic with the Bermuda High shunted east. So the storms turns north over the Eastern Bahamas. The forecast is similar to the Euro.

[sma10]

The GFS shows a clear weakness over Florida and the SW Atlantic with the Bermuda High shunted east. So the storms turns north over the Eastern Bahamas. The forecast is similar to the Euro.

This does not have the look of a recurve.

[Blown Away]

The GFS shows a clear weakness over Florida and the SW Atlantic with the Bermuda High shunted east. So the storms turns north over the Eastern Bahamas. The forecast is similar to the Euro.

So far it seems after impacting the GA's TD7 will go N, but there was @300 mile shift W in the 18z at @192 hours.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop:

[Blown Away]

Saved loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/DwrnMbK5/gfs-z500a-Norm-eus-fh168-216.gif

No slam dunk OTS look from there.

[sma10]

Saved loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/DwrnMbK5/gfs-z500a-Norm-eus-fh168-216.gif

No slam dunk OTS look from there.

Combined with the fact that this is 10 days out... still in dartboard territory

[BobHarlem]

18Z GFS Manages to clip the northeast part of Nova Scotia near Louisbourg and gets over eastern Newfoundland still fairly formidable. but otherwise stays offshore once past the eastern Bahamas.