EPAC: ROSLYN - Remnants

[MarioProtVI]

I’m getting Patricia vibes for some reason, I hope I’m wrong and recon finds it’s only like 105 kt later on.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2022 Time : 055020 UTC
Lat : 16:54:35 N Lon : 105:48:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 982mb / 70kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -6.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 220629
TCSENP

A. 19E (ROSLYN)

B. 22/0600Z

C. 17.0N

D. 105.7W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN LG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 5.0. AN
OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B RESULTS IN AN EADJ OF +0.5. THE RESULTING DT
IS 5.5 WITH NO ADDITION FOR BANDING. THE MET IS 5.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT
IS 5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER
12 HOURS TO 1.5 T NUMBERS. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION WORKSHEET RESULTED
IN AN AVERAGE DT OF 5.3 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR
THE BREAKING OF CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[Yellow Evan]

[Astromanía]

Omg what a beauty

[kevin]

Raw T# is up to 6.5 (935 mb, 127 kt).

[kevin]

Unless we get unexpected weakening due to an EWRC or a sudden increase in shear I would be very surprised if recon doesn't at least find a cat 4 later today. I think the forecast intensity will be increased significantly during the next advisory.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...ROSLYN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 106.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES




Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Roslyn has intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours. A
well-defined eye has formed in infrared satellite imagery since the
time of the previous advisory, with cloud tops in the surrounding
central dense overcast (CDO) as cold as -80 degrees Celsius. The
satellite presentation has improved significantly enough to yield
Dvorak data-T numbers of 5.5 (102 kt) from TAFB and SAB at 06 UTC.
Since Roslyn's structure has improved a bit since that time, the
initial intensity is set at 105 kt.

The initial motion is now northwestward, or 315/6 kt. Roslyn is
expected to continue recurving around the western periphery of a
mid-level high centered over Mexico during the next 36 hours. The
bulk of the track models indicate that the hurricane will pass just
offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, by tonight, and then
accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday, likely making landfall
on the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit. After landfall,
Roslyn's remnants are expected to accelerate toward the northeast
over northern Mexico. The updated NHC track forecast shows a
slightly wider recurvature than the previous forecast during
the first 24 hours, following the tightly clustered model
solutions, but the expected landfall ends up in the same general
location as before.

Roslyn has roughly another 12 hours before deep-layer southwesterly
shear increases to moderate levels. But before that happens, the
environment appears conducive for additional strengthening,
possibly still at a rapid rate. SHIPS Rapid Intensification
indices indicate there is a 50/50 chance of a 20-kt increase in
winds over the next 12 hours, and given the short-term satellite
trends, the NHC intensity forecast now shows Roslyn reaching
category 4 intensity later today. The increase in shear should
induce some weakening in the last few hours while Roslyn approaches
the coast of Mexico, but the storm could still be at or near major
hurricane strength around the time of landfall on Sunday. After
landfall, the 5000- to 8000-ft mountains of the Sierra Madre
Occidentals are expected to significantly disrupt Rosalyn's
circulation, and even though a remnant low is shown in the forecast
over the Mexican Plateau at 48 hours, it's likely that Rosalyn will
have dissipated by that time.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength
when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds
and a dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane
Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be
rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 17.3N 106.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.3N 106.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 20.1N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 22.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 25.7N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1583763509698916354

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1583763509698916354

I don't see an EWRC anymore on Satellite.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ22 KNES 221205
TCSENP

A. 19E (ROSLYN)

B. 22/1131Z

C. 17.6N

D. 106.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN AN E#
OF 5.0 WITH EADJ +0.5 FOR A DT OF 5.5. EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
PRESENT. MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[tolakram]

saved loop

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-13-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1583763509698916354

I don't see an EWRC anymore on Satellite.

In these early stages, it can sometimes be very hard to tell on IR imagery. The CDO is currently in the process of expanding; if the eye starts clouding up, then there’s a secondary eyewall under there.

[cycloneye]

125 mph.

EP, 19, 2022102212, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1062W, 110, 955, HU

[Tireman4]

Yikes. Goodness this will be interesting

[cycloneye]

AF plane has departed for the very important mission when Roslyn is still intensifying. Hopefully, they complete the mission safely and not turn around.

[Kingarabian]

Most latest MW pass Is an AMSR2 pass that looked pretty decent, but doesn't look strong enough to support 125mph.



Recon will be telling.

[Iceresistance]

Raw ADT T# at 6.6, recon really needs to be there soon!

[InfernoFlameCat]

South Easterly shear seems to be on the rise. The outflow is restricted on the NorthWest edge of the Hurricane.

[Iceresistance]

There is a dry slot that is trying to interfere with the intensification of the storm, I hope that is the case because we don't want a nasty landfall over Mexico from Roslyn.