ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

https://twitter.com/brianwftv/status/1589317423928578048?s=46&t=IVYmYD9MlHbtfwmm12Fv7g

My case in point. Brian says it’s unusual for this time of year. Meaning, he’s not saying a hurricane or ts is definitely going to happen. But he’s not ignoring the GFS and other supporting models either. He is sticking with both sides of the data as it comes in. the word for weather in Latin means change so there’s no room for dogmaticism.

[MarioProtVI]

The more time goes on the more I think this is really trying to be like Kate 1985… both are expected/ended up forming from non-/subtropical origins, unusually warm SSTs with similar high pressure locations (sitting off SE coast), and identical strength (moderate hurricane) into Florida. Is 2022 trying to be 1985, with Fiona as the Gloria equivalent (but further offshore), and Ian being the Elena repeat but worse for Florida?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2022110618, , BEST, 0, 224N, 667W, 35, 1005, D

[MetroMike]

Looks like the Hurricane Hunters will take off around 2am central time 0800Z.

Apparently yes,today they had a training flight scheduled, what timing.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/1589333348182364161

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1589338732171255808

[caneman]

Here on the West coast Friday Denis Phillips on the Tampa ABC affiliate was saying he is not worried about this at all.
Not judging him but not too smart to go out on a limb and give a false sense of security to viewers even though thats what they really want to hear.

I know i saw that and turned off part way through. I liked him for Ian but didn’t like his dismissiveness of the GFS for 98L.

He's playing the odds and dumping needed water on the social media panic squad, there's plenty of time to change course if that's appropriate. Backdoor storms typically aren't a big deal here...they tend to lack precip and wind is of an offshore component. The threat is to the east coast. a substantial beach eater with nasty conditions over multiple high tide cycles could pose a real threat for those areas. Looks like good drinking conditions for west coasters at this point..

I wouldn't really agree with you. I lost power from both Jeanne and Frances for about a week each.

[chris_fit]

A hurricane approaching FL from the east in the 2nd week of November... I gotta see it to believe it and as of now i just don't. I do believe a big storm with a large gale and storm force windfield is possible if not likely. I could see a massive beach erosion event from the mid atlantic southward at the very least. I do agree with the Tampa bay area mets tamping down the hype squad on this side of the state as of now..but a nice offshore breeze with some passing party squalls in November sounds amazing.

Thing is, bunch of us still recovering from Ian. Myself have a portion of my roof tarped, I'm in the Parrish area. Breezy conditions with squals sounds a little less appetizing than amazing.

[GCANE]

Swirl is kicking up some high-vorticity convection now.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, this thread is not about a person but is about the system tagged as invest 98L.

[GCANE]

Buoy down to 1006mb

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EST

[weeniepatrol]

Buoy down to 1006mb

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EST

[Blown Away]

Swirl is kicking up some high-vorticity convection now.

Where would you put the COC?

[Jr0d]

How far north this goes before diving south is going to be crucial as is how far it dives south. If it goes far enough north before diving south it may miss Florida completely. Further south than forecasted and Miami and even the Keys could get a direct hit. Right now of course the models have narrowed the most likely landfall between Palm Beach and Daytona.

Also an important note is this will likely not start acquiring tropical conditions until it starts to dive south.

How big of a dive south also plays a major factor in the potential strength. Worst case this will be over the gulf stream while in a favorable environment for strengthening.

Best case, this never goes fully tropical and the east coast of Florida will see gale force winds(as well as much of the US east coast) with much less rain.

It also appears this will not take on tropical features until it starts diving south.

While the widespread gale force winds and high surf for the east coast is easy forecast..when, where and if thus becomes fully tropical not so much.

While unlikely, if this does find a "bubble" of favorable conditions kind of like the GFS shows, this could be a major hurricane. On the flip side and much more likely will never be fully tropical and the top winds will likely be high end gale, low end storm force.

[tropicwatch]

Swirl is kicking up some high-vorticity convection now.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mDrwZCfZ/goes16-vis-98-L-202211061907.gif [/url]

Where would you put the COC?

Somewhere in between buoy 41046 Location: 23.822N 68.384W Winds out of the northeast
and
Buoy 41043 Location: 21.026N 64.793W Winds out of the south-southwest.

[Michele B]

How far north this goes before diving south is going to be crucial as is how far it dives south. If it goes far enough north before diving south it may miss Florida completely. Further south than forecasted and Miami and even the Keys could get a direct hit. Right now of course the models have narrowed the most likely landfall between Palm Beach and Daytona.

Also an important note is this will likely not start acquiring tropical conditions until it starts to dive south.

How big of a dive south also plays a major factor in the potential strength. Worst case this will be over the gulf stream while in a favorable environment for strengthening.

Best case, this never goes fully tropical and the east coast of Florida will see gale force winds(as well as much of the US east coast) with much less rain.

It also appears this will not take on tropical features until it starts diving south.

While the widespread gale force winds and high surf for the east coast is easy forecast..when, where and if thus becomes fully tropical not so much.

While unlikely, if this does find a "bubble" of favorable conditions kind of like the GFS shows, this could be a major hurricane. On the flip side and much more likely will never be fully tropical and the top winds will likely be high end gale, low end storm force.

The other consideration is that it’s a very large system and will create impacts far from its center, be it tropical or subtropical.

[gatorcane]

Big increase of 850mb vorticity;

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1589353087277608960

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RobertSpetaWX/status/1589362723816902656

[GCANE]

Swirl is kicking up some high-vorticity convection now.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mDrwZCfZ/goes16-vis-98-L-202211061907.gif [/url]

Where would you put the COC?

Now, somewhere under the clouds.