ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Hard to discern any center at 13.5 looking at the latest sat loops

From an infrared image?

Yes

[Frank P]

Possible center at 14.7N/79.3W, pressure 1000 mbar.

That center location aligns nicely with the IR sat loops I posted. System still looks like it is moving generally to the west / WNW

[StAuggy]

I'm certainly no Met but it appears to me that the GFS ensembles initialized the latest run south (20 - 30 miles?) of the verified position. Of course, is there a TRUE verified position yet may be the real question. On the other hand, the Euro initialized its run significantly closer to the "verified" position.

https://i.postimg.cc/VsDftMNW/AVNO-enstrendtrack-0.png
GFS

https://i.postimg.cc/SKgXxPHc/ECMF-enstrendtrack-0.png
Euro

That said, if we assume the GFS initialized too far south, then should one also assume the GFS track may also be too far west at 24/48/72 hours AND too slow?

I think this is spot on. The gfs also has this stronger sooner which will send it more west. The euro has it weaker longer leading to an earlier motion north. I think it still has an RI period and the euro solutions into the peninsula worry me because it could be very strong

[wxman57]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far west by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

[Blown Away]

Maybe no well defined at the surface, but you can see the low level clouds circulating @15N/79W. Ian’s has bigger problems if it’s down by 13.5.

[BobHarlem]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far east by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

" My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far east by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF."

Assume you meant "pulled too far west" there

[Airboy]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 11:20Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Ian
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 10:47:56Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.88N 79.38W
B. Center Fix Location: 276 statute miles (444 km) to the SW (218°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,092m (10,144ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 20° at 19kts (From the NNE at 22mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34kts (39.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SSW (197°) of center fix at 10:30:44Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 281° at 18kts (From between the W and WNW at 20.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the S (177°) of center fix at 10:40:36Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 41kts (47.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the NNE (27°) of center fix at 11:00:17Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 133° at 42kts (From the SE at 48.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) of center fix at 11:07:23Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,065m (10,056ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) from the flight level center at 11:07:23Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 12°C (54°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SE (130°) from the flight level center

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/LXdnN4xD/74506634.gif [/url]

Maybe no well defined at the surface, but you can see the low level clouds circulating @15N/79W. Ian’s has bigger problems if it’s down by 13.5.

Recon has confirmed a LLC near 15°N, 79.5°W.

[caneman]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far east by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

" My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far east by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF."

Assume you meant "pulled too far west" there

I thought the same thing you just said. Sounds like he's looking at Cedar Key. I also believe that if it comes in at Tampa it will remain strong and devastating

[aspen]

Recon supports 40kt/1001mb. An improvement over yesterday, but for a system in this kind of environment, I think we were all expecting something more impressive.

[wxman57]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far east by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

" My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far east by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF."

Assume you meant "pulled too far west" there

I think you misread my post, better check it again.

[redingtonbeach]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far west by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

So you are leaning toward a Gainesville trajectory? Maybe Cedar Key landing? Cat 2'ish?

[chris_fit]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far west by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

As always, thanks for your analysis.

Yes or No - If you were Tampa Area (Bradenton) - Would you be shuttering up?

My plan is to wait until this afternoon models, if E shift in most guidance, shutter up - otherwise no. Wise plan?

[caneman]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far west by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

As always, thanks for your analysis.

Yes or No - If you were Tampa Area (Bradenton) - Would you be shuttering up?

My plan is to wait until this afternoon models, if E shift in most guidance, shutter up - otherwise no. Wise plan?

While I'm not 57, I do live here near the beaches of Pinellas. I think it's a wise plan. The NHC mentions their 72 hour forecast is pretty solid. So, I'd wait til probably tomorrow morning at 1st light to see if they have it pointed at or near us. It doesn't even need to hit us, a 25 to 50 mile brush to the west could do some pretty good damage too.

[StPeteMike]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far west by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

As always, thanks for your analysis.

Yes or No - If you were Tampa Area (Bradenton) - Would you be shuttering up?

My plan is to wait until this afternoon models, if E shift in most guidance, shutter up - otherwise no. Wise plan?

Would also wait til probably whatever comes out either this afternoon or even this evening. Almost all the models have been pretty set with between the mouth of Tampa Bay and Big Bend area.

[ronjon]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far west by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

As always, thanks for your analysis.

Yes or No - If you were Tampa Area (Bradenton) - Would you be shuttering up?

My plan is to wait until this afternoon models, if E shift in most guidance, shutter up - otherwise no. Wise plan?

I'm going to wait until this afternoons suite of models but it doesn't look good for me along the nature coast in Hernando Beach. This could be the repeat of the 1921 hurricane for the Tampa Bay area (guess our luck finally ran out).

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1574006391987208195

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573969695178465280

Strange how this is in the most favorable environment of any storm this season, and yet it’s the only one to struggle with low-level divergence. None of the models picked this up.

What do you mean? Several did. And NHC has been telling us It wasn’t supposed to crank until down the line which would be later today or tomorrow.

[MBryant]

I'd look north of 15N for the center. That stuff down south is insignificant. Strong mid-level center around 15.5N. Surface center will form/relocate there. Still looks like northern FL Peninsula, north of Tampa. NHC is now acknowledging the strong shear that would lead to weakening prior to landfall. However, the farther (farther = distance, not "further") south it impacts Florida, the stronger it would be at landfall. My track is east of their track (along TVCN) because TVCN is likely being pulled too far west by the errant (likely) GFS and HWRF. Starting on advisory...

As always, thanks for your analysis.

Yes or No - If you were Tampa Area (Bradenton) - Would you be shuttering up?

My plan is to wait until this afternoon models, if E shift in most guidance, shutter up - otherwise no. Wise plan?

Would also wait til probably whatever comes out either this afternoon or even this evening. Almost all the models have been pretty set with between the mouth of Tampa Bay and Big Bend area.

My plan since before RITA is:

1. Basic Prep before 7/1
2. Specific Prep 5 days out. Beat the run on perishables.
3. Watch Storm 2K and beat the local Official notices by 12 hours. Beat evacuation traffic.

[tolakram]

floater views:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022#homePageLink

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/meso_band.php?sat=G16&lat=14N&lon=78W&band=GEOCOLOR&length=60&dim=1

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16_meso1.html