ATL: NICOLE - Models

[Blown Away]

06z GFS… Landfall @Pompano Beach then NW across Peninsula.

[jlauderdal]

06z GFS… Landfall @Pompano Beach then NW across Peninsula.

Stop, it was boca not pompano, ha. Gfs hanging tough with this southerly move, nhc staying north, for now.

[Blown Away]

06z ICON… Landfall @Ft. Pierce/Vero… Similar to 00z

[Blown Away]

06z HMON… @Cat 1 near Pt. St Lucie; 971 mb

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF… Cat 1 into WPB; Big circulation/eye; 06z models coming in stronger than 00z…

[NDG]

06z GFS and 0z Euro are fairly close, both have landfall in Palm Beach County. What is interesting is how faster the GFS now is when the last couple of days was much slower, might be the reason why it brings Nicole far offshore into the GOM.
Euro continues its solution of Nicole staying subtropical which the NHC is dismissing its solution.

[NDG]

Interesting that both GFS and Euro show low windshear and moist environment over the eastern GOM, with both models now showing it to reach the eastern GOM before the sharp turn to the NE.
I guess Nicole is going to be full of surprises for us.

[DESTRUCTION5]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4xg9xCcF/hwrf-ref-17-L-fh3-75.gif [/url]
06z HWRF… Cat 1 into WPB; Big circulation/eye; 06z models coming in stronger than 00z…

Many models including HWRF intensify her all the way to landfall. Bastardi is thinking low end cat 2.

[N2FSU]

NAM doing NAM things:


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[cane5]

So has ICON changed in the last 24 hours which I think had it landing more South ?

[Blown Away]

So has ICON changed in the last 24 hours which I think had it landing more South ?

No, the ICON has been a north outlier mostly from the beginning. It did shift some S from its Daytona area to near Port St Lucie.

[cane5]

Interesting that both GFS and Euro show low windshear and moist environment over the eastern GOM, with both models now showing it to reach the eastern GOM before the sharp turn to the NE.
I guess Nicole is going to be full of surprises for us.

https://i.imgur.com/c8lGXVx.png
https://i.imgur.com/3SUMyEI.png

Not really trough won’t arrive until late Friday….

[tolakram]

Here's the ICON trend for two timepoints.





I believe all models except the CMC are now taking Nicole across Florida into the gulf.

[tolakram]

The Euro 6Z is running (note this is 850mb, not surface).

[cane5]

So has ICON changed in the last 24 hours which I think had it landing more South ?

No, the ICON has been a north outlier mostly from the beginning. It did shift some S from its Daytona area to near Port St Lucie.

Thanks for the quick reply….

[cane5]

Here's the ICON trend for two timepoints.

https://i.imgur.com/jv1ONlV.gif

https://i.imgur.com/DY43SK1.gif

I believe all models except the CMC are now taking Nicole across Florida into the gulf.

The latest ICON also shows it making landfall right above Gainesville…hummm if true that negates the strong high pressure ridge having much impact… something looks strange with that model ?

[NDG]

Euro is trending for much better UL conditions as Nicole tracks over the gulf stream and while making landfall, this might be one of those systems that may not much loose strength as after making landfall.

[NDG]

Good shift to south by the 12z early models, including the TVCN consensus, I would expect a shift south by the NHC's track.
UKMET is keeping the TVCN from being even further south towards Palm Beach County.

[chaser1]

HWRF forecast is interesting showing relative weak winds and core gradient in spite of it's forecast of 976 mb at landfall. Even then, it still looks "low-topped" and only "quasi-tropical" to me. Shallow storm may display hurricane force near/above the surface but those winds appear to translate far far less at the surface with values greatly reduced over inland areas.

[cane5]

Just curious for our experts please describe what the models 48 hours from potential landfall in general got it right with Ian ? There seemed to be a consensus that was all Tampa and I think was underplaying storm winds. All accept the ICON got it right as far as landfall don’t remember what it predicted in storm winds. But it was a complete miss at 48 hours including the NHC !