ATL: IAN - Models

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472?s=20&t=NXaK5mFSz-g3VqVc2YjQBA

That ensemble mean is artificially pushed east by members that are 980mb or higher, which we all-but know this won’t be. The left half has members more representative of the expected strength, which take the storm further up the west coast

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472?s=20&t=NXaK5mFSz-g3VqVc2YjQBA

That ensemble mean is artificially pushed east by members that are 980mb or higher, which we all-but know this won’t be. The left half has members more representative of the expected strength, which take the storm further up the west coast

Um ok.. lol

I will side with the Euro and its ensembles on this for consistency as the gfs has been all over the place.

[psyclone]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472?s=20&t=NXaK5mFSz-g3VqVc2YjQBA

That ensemble mean is artificially pushed east by members that are 980mb or higher, which we all-but know this won’t be. The left half has members more representative of the expected strength, which take the storm further up the west coast

I've noticed that phenomenon. is that due to the more western solutions being over the water longer or some other factor? I feel like my zone is really riding the line..

[Blown Away]

Where is a good website to get GFS & EURO rainfall predictions?

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472?s=20&t=NXaK5mFSz-g3VqVc2YjQBA

That ensemble mean is artificially pushed east by members that are 980mb or higher, which we all-but know this won’t be. The left half has members more representative of the expected strength, which take the storm further up the west coast

Um ok.. lol

I will side with the Euro and its ensembles on this for consistency as the gfs has been all over the place.

I didn’t say anything about the gfs. In fact on an earlier post I said I think it’s wrong too

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1573391408882409472?s=20&t=NXaK5mFSz-g3VqVc2YjQBA

That ensemble mean is artificially pushed east by members that are 980mb or higher, which we all-but know this won’t be. The left half has members more representative of the expected strength, which take the storm further up the west coast

What.

To further explain, the eastern half of the eps guidance is composed of weaker members (>980mb) which are not representative of what the expected intensity will be. The western half is stronger, and more in line. A stronger system will be on the western side of this guidance. Looking at this ensemble alone, the assumption would be a storm like this would landfall closer to Cape Coral than Everglades City where the ensemble mean is

[Frank P]

Well the TVCN shifted north closer to Tampa on the 18z Model Track Guidance so maybe the NHC is considering the latest GFS run after all and the fact that the Euro also shifted a tad. I can’t tell exactly where the TVCN goes inland but I think it might be a hair just north of Tampa. Not what anyone in Tampa would like to see, regardless I expect the NHC forecast track to shift up the west coast, exactly how far who knows. Find out soon enough. Fairly tight agreement on the track att. Additionally, the LLC is now under the convection blob it was chasing after recently and if the shear can back off I expect development chances to start to increase now.

[Wakeknight]

Well the TVCN shifted north closer to Tampa on the 18z Model Track Guidance so maybe the NHC is considering the latest GFS run after all and the fact that the Euro also shifted a tad. I can’t tell exactly where the TVCN goes inland but I think it might be a hair just north of Tampa. Not what anyone in Tampa would like to see, regardless I expect the NHC forecast track to shift up the west coast, exactly how far who knows. Find out soon enough. Fairly tight agreement on the track att.

TVCN comes ashore in Bradenton, South of Tampa Bay.

[MJGarrison]

That ensemble mean is artificially pushed east by members that are 980mb or higher, which we all-but know this won’t be. The left half has members more representative of the expected strength, which take the storm further up the west coast

What.

To further explain, the eastern half of the eps guidance is composed of weaker members (>980mb) which are not representative of what the expected intensity will be. The western half is stronger, and more in line. A stronger system will be on the western side of this guidance. Looking at this ensemble alone, the assumption would be a storm like this would landfall closer to Cape Coral than Everglades City where the ensemble mean is

Don’t we also not trust the global models to properly resolve pressure of the system? Typically we expect in this situation for the pressures to be a little lower than the global models might show? That could make the right most solutions a little more reasonable when compared with what we actually expect from the storm.


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[Frank P]

Well the TVCN shifted north closer to Tampa on the 18z Model Track Guidance so maybe the NHC is considering the latest GFS run after all and the fact that the Euro also shifted a tad. I can’t tell exactly where the TVCN goes inland but I think it might be a hair just north of Tampa. Not what anyone in Tampa would like to see, regardless I expect the NHC forecast track to shift up the west coast, exactly how far who knows. Find out soon enough. Fairly tight agreement on the track att.

TVCN comes ashore in Bradenton, South of Tampa Bay.

Found it, actually the TVCN does go just east of the heart of Tampa. Would expect a good surge on the east shores of the Bay as well. Would not bode well for Tampa surge wise if any more shifts to the north would occur either..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Expecting the track to shift north at 5pm... closer to Bradenton IMHO.

Windshield wiping left-and-right in full play, but at least we've narrowed down that FL will probably be impacted along with Cuba.

[NDG]

32 out of 50 EPS ensemble members take it TD 9 into southern FL, 9 keep it on the gulf side, ~9 east of Fl.

[islandgirl45]

Well the TVCN shifted north closer to Tampa on the 18z Model Track Guidance so maybe the NHC is considering the latest GFS run after all and the fact that the Euro also shifted a tad. I can’t tell exactly where the TVCN goes inland but I think it might be a hair just north of Tampa. Not what anyone in Tampa would like to see, regardless I expect the NHC forecast track to shift up the west coast, exactly how far who knows. Find out soon enough. Fairly tight agreement on the track att.

TVCN comes ashore in Bradenton, South of Tampa Bay.

Found it, actually the TVCN does go just east of the heart of Tampa. Would expect a good surge on the east shores of the Bay as well. Would not bode well for Tampa surge wise if any more shifts to the north would occur either..
https://i.ibb.co/YWrKRKr/D5-F36-BC6-3043-433-E-82-C6-E7168-C176779.jpg

Where does the TVCN exit on the east coast?

[Nimbus]

Well the TVCN shifted north closer to Tampa on the 18z Model Track Guidance so maybe the NHC is considering the latest GFS run after all and the fact that the Euro also shifted a tad. I can’t tell exactly where the TVCN goes inland but I think it might be a hair just north of Tampa. Not what anyone in Tampa would like to see, regardless I expect the NHC forecast track to shift up the west coast, exactly how far who knows. Find out soon enough. Fairly tight agreement on the track att. Additionally, the LLC is now under the convection blob it was chasing after recently and if the shear can back off I expect development chances to start to increase now.

The westward trend may continue, its mostly with the stronger members that follow deeper steering and strangely the GFS precipitation pattern was sheared west of center as it tracked past Tampa bay in the 12Z run?
There is an anticyclone starting to build centered south of Jamaica which will help ventilate.

There may be cooler drier air in the northern gulf if it does track up into the big bend area.

[pgoss11]

TVCN comes ashore in Bradenton, South of Tampa Bay.

Found it, actually the TVCN does go just east of the heart of Tampa. Would expect a good surge on the east shores of the Bay as well. Would not bode well for Tampa surge wise if any more shifts to the north would occur either..
https://i.ibb.co/YWrKRKr/D5-F36-BC6-3043-433-E-82-E7168-C176779.jpg

Where does the TVCN exit on the east coast?

On the 18z ensembles it looks like it stays inland into Georgia but someone else could provide more information

[tolakram]

As we head into a nervous period here I want to review a couple of things as we've had to remove a few posts.

1. Please stay on the topic of model runs and do not post one linters or reactions, it just fills the thread with junk and makes meaningful posts harder to find. We have a discussion thread for that.

2. Never tell others how to behave or what to do. Period. We get this every year, people coming into the models thread to tell people not to watch the models or react to them. Maddening. If you think model watching is useless then stay out of the model threads.

3. Know the S2K rules and do not violate them. If you post a tweet that violates these rules it's your post and you will be held responsible. This reminder makes more sense in the discussion thread but I will put it here as well. False information is going to be an issue as it usually is when a storm approaches the coast. Accidents happen of course, just use your best judgement.

Thanks!

[Steve]

That ensemble mean is artificially pushed east by members that are 980mb or higher, which we all-but know this won’t be. The left half has members more representative of the expected strength, which take the storm further up the west coast

What.

To further explain, the eastern half of the eps guidance is composed of weaker members (>980mb) which are not representative of what the expected intensity will be. The western half is stronger, and more in line. A stronger system will be on the western side of this guidance. Looking at this ensemble alone, the assumption would be a storm like this would landfall closer to Cape Coral than Everglades City where the ensemble mean is

Two straight awesome posts that got dissed for literally lack of understanding. Great stuff as always Cheezy and an important reminder that the middle of the ensembles has to be vetted by reality.

[Frank P]

Well the TVCN shifted north closer to Tampa on the 18z Model Track Guidance so maybe the NHC is considering the latest GFS run after all and the fact that the Euro also shifted a tad. I can’t tell exactly where the TVCN goes inland but I think it might be a hair just north of Tampa. Not what anyone in Tampa would like to see, regardless I expect the NHC forecast track to shift up the west coast, exactly how far who knows. Find out soon enough. Fairly tight agreement on the track att. Additionally, the LLC is now under the convection blob it was chasing after recently and if the shear can back off I expect development chances to start to increase now.

The westward trend may continue, its mostly with the stronger members that follow deeper steering and strangely the GFS precipitation pattern was sheared west of center as it tracked past Tampa bay in the 12Z run?
There is an anticyclone starting to build centered south of Jamaica which will help ventilate.

There may be cooler drier air in the northern gulf if it does track up into the big bend area.

Any slow down of the system would most likely result in a more western scenario, something to watch for in the coming days.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z ICON is further Southwest early on but it doesn’t change the end result…. Strike on SW Florida and crossing towards Lake Okeechobee.