ATL: IAN - Models

[sma10]

18z ICON is further Southwest early on but it doesn’t change the end result…. Strike on SW Florida and crossing towards Lake Okeechobee.

Yes it's basically the exact same track as 12z, only a little slower. And extremely similar now, timing and track-wise, to the euro

[eastcoastFL]

NHC gave it a nudge west at 5pm. I doubt this will be the last adjustment prior to landfall. Still a lot of time left here and a lot of models to be run.

[Frank P]

TVCN comes ashore in Bradenton, South of Tampa Bay.

Found it, actually the TVCN does go just east of the heart of Tampa. Would expect a good surge on the east shores of the Bay as well. Would not bode well for Tampa surge wise if any more shifts to the north would occur either..
https://i.ibb.co/YWrKRKr/D5-F36-BC6-3043-433-E-82-C6-E7168-C176779.jpg

Where does the TVCN exit on the east coast?

Actually the run stops in SE Georgia.

[BobHarlem]

Happy Hour GFS already a bit right of 12z at 15 hours out, and just slightly right of 12z at 48 hours. at 60 hours out, pressure is 8mb lower than what the 12z had it at the same point.

[shah83]

Intensification is much more rapid on the 18z GFS. Gotta wonder if it will get a chance at a completed EWC and get bigger in the Gulf.

[Frank P]

GFS 18z hour about the same spot as 12z but 8 mb lower at 54h

[Iceresistance]

GFS 18z hour about the same spot as 12z but 8 mb lower at 54h

Might be sniffing out the earlier-than-expected increasingly favorable conditions.

EDIT: Also somewhat slower compared to 12z

[Blown Away]

GFS 18z hour about the same spot as 12z but 8 mb lower at 54h

Might be sniffing out the earlier-than-expected increasingly favorable conditions.

EDIT: Also somewhat slower compared to 12z

18z GFS Trend... Little slower & east

[AutoPenalti]

GFS about the same

[Blown Away]

I'm just waiting for the moment when the universe is back on balance and the GFS and it's bias is to the right of the Euro.

[Pelicane]

GFS 18z hour about the same spot as 12z but 8 mb lower at 54h

Might be sniffing out the earlier-than-expected increasingly favorable conditions.

EDIT: Also somewhat slower compared to 12z

Slower movement could be better for Florida as it would allow the cold front to get to it sooner.

[skyline385]

935mb so far

[Iceresistance]

GFS 18z hour about the same spot as 12z but 8 mb lower at 54h

Might be sniffing out the earlier-than-expected increasingly favorable conditions.

EDIT: Also somewhat slower compared to 12z

Slower movement could be better for Florida as it would allow the cold front to get to it sooner.

Not if the storm is to the west of the state.

[SunnyThoughts]

GFS...you can back off on the intensity now..k? Unreal Looks to be a little farther North this time as well.

[skyline385]

Peaked at 935mb, now starting to weaken

[kevin]

This is the strongest GFS run since it started showing a track over Cuba. Here's the last 4 runs.

00z = 949 mb (954 mb pre-Cuba)
06z = 940 mb (947 mb pre-Cuba)
12z = 943 mb (952 mb pre-Cuba)
18z = 935 mb (944 mb pre-Cuba)

[Pelicane]

Might be sniffing out the earlier-than-expected increasingly favorable conditions.

EDIT: Also somewhat slower compared to 12z

Slower movement could be better for Florida as it would allow the cold front to get to it sooner.

Not if the storm is to the west of the state.

I'm talking about the second big trough that will dump cold dry air into the gulf in around 5 days. If it's slower, it could miss the first trough and get weakened by the second one.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS further west from florida peninsula

[Iceresistance]

Slower movement could be better for Florida as it would allow the cold front to get to it sooner.

Not if the storm is to the west of the state.

I'm talking about the second big trough that will dump cold dry air into the gulf in around 5 days. If it's slower, it could miss the first trough and get weakened by the second one.

Oh, I see now. The first trough appears to be stronger than the previous run.

[gatorcane]

I'm just waiting for the moment when the universe is back on balance and the GFS and it's bias is to the right of the Euro.

Yeah that is throwing me off too. I am suspect of those NE tracks over the southern peninsula on the Euro.think we will see the Euro shift some more to the west and the GFS will shift some to the east. They basically will meet in the middle somewhere.