ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

The rush for supplies appears to have begun here in Tallahassee. I just passed a gas station packed with people.

[Blown Away]

A definite NW heading has started with Ian if not a NNW heading, LLC much more defined than yesterday.

https://i.imgur.com/EgfqkZx.gif

More NNW gets Ian faster to FL, meets trough sooner and moves NE over southern half of FL Peninsula. Climatology says Ft Myers S to Keys and then out into the Atlantic. This stops all the nonsense stall, loop, turns NE back into CONUS. JMHO

Also no extremely rare Big Bend armpit track…

[wxman57]

With the GFS shifting east, the TVCN will shift east, too. NHC track will shift east at 21Z. My track takes the center about 30 miles west of the coast at Tampa early Thursday morning. I'm thinking I'm still too far west.Maybe another 0.1 or 0.2 east for now.

[cycloneye]

AF302 and AF304 are moving to a base that is closer to Ian. That is why you will see "Unassigned Mission" on the Tropical Tidbits Recon page.

Any ASCAT pass that has been released?

[underthwx]

A definite NW heading has started with Ian if not a NNW heading, LLC much more defined than yesterday.

https://i.imgur.com/EgfqkZx.gif

More NNW gets Ian faster to FL, meets trough sooner and moves NE over southern half of FL Peninsula. Climatology says Ft Myers S to Keys and then out into the Atlantic. This stops all the nonsense stall, loop, turns NE back into CONUS. JMHO

Also no extremely rare Big Bend armpit track…

What is the timing of this trough? I read yesterday that a NOAA reconnaissance flight yesterday afternoon, as well as dropsondes?, would aid in resolving both the steering flow around Ian, and the trough...

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking at vis, the core of this storm is tiny. Reminds me of how small Delta’s core was. If the core stays that small, it isn’t unreasonable to think Ian could make up for lost time in the strength department when it decides to ramp up. I don’t think we’ll see much before tonight though

[Teban54]

So what's the reason why Ian just couldn't fire deep convection in the last 20 hours or so...?

[Frank P]

Sat loops sure look like Ian is moving NNW… interesting development for sure!

[tronbunny]

I know that the flooding can be really bad, but I think we should all be grateful of the amount of shear that's forecasted to be in the northern gulf.... I can't even imagine how horrible this situation would have been if the conditions were great for intensification, rather than weakening. Cat 1 to maybe Cat 2 seems the most likely strength at landfall... .. I'm not really concerned about the wind as much though, except on the coast... I'm concerned about the rain/surge, especially if the EURO wins out and there's more of a stall over Florida......

i’m 14 miles inland is that safe from wind and surge?

You should be looking for those answers in the discussion thread. We cannot predict what happens here. We are just watching how the mathematical algorithms manage the synoptic data ingested.

[psyclone]

With the GFS shifting east, the TVCN will shift east, too. NHC track will shift east at 21Z. My track takes the center about 30 miles west of the coast at Tampa early Thursday morning. I'm thinking I'm still too far west.Maybe another 0.1 or 0.2 east for now.

You're venturing into my corner of the world with that track. I was swimming in the gulf yesterday just above clearwater. Water was clear, probably 85 or so and the sea was so flat you could take a canoe out there. This area has tons of areas vulnerable to surge...and so many vectors to deliver it...since we're a peninsula on a peninsula.

[Hurricane2022]

So what's the reason why Ian just couldn't fire deep convection in the last 20 hours or so...?

Likely Dry Air

[cheezyWXguy]

So what's the reason why Ian just couldn't fire deep convection in the last 20 hours or so...?

Likely Dry Air

It seems like the multiple weak centers yesterday resulted in a lack of surface convergence, causing that deep convection to collapse. This likely caused a lot of atmospheric stability that the storm is only now starting to fight off

[Hurrilurker]

Ian showing slow signs of improvement on visible, but still looks like a real mess on IR.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574043337165676544



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574045180541300736



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574057672898330625



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1574079140826910722

[SconnieCane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574043337165676544



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574045180541300736



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574057672898330625



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1574079140826910722

Seems like different formative TCs organize/intensify in different ways in seemingly similar environments. Some fire -80C hot towers at will but there's no LLC underneath them. Ian has the structural organization but the convection isn't there.

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[Iceresistance]

AF302 and AF304 are moving to a base that is closer to Ian. That is why you will see "Unassigned Mission" on the Tropical Tidbits Recon page.

Any ASCAT pass that has been released?

ASCAT-B clipped the eastern side of the wind field, but no direct hit otherwise.

[Sanibel]

Much better structure and center rotation than yesterday...


Just itchin to RI IMO...

[Michele B]

Remember, the 5pm NHC forecast was already east of TVCN (which had a drastic west shift at that time). I think they didn't want to make a huge shift at 5pm, and they're just catching up at 11pm.

Also, while convection is a bit anemic now, I think it might just be a pulse down phase. IIRC, one of Eta or Iota (I can't remember which) was almost devoid of convection at one point.

As wxman pointed out earlier nhc is likely to follow the tvcn as a safe bet, which I imagine holds even more true about n times of uncertainty like this. I have hunch the 0z models will start pushing back east, and if they do the nhc will adjust, but I really don’t want to bet on anything at this point. My personal unofficial view is that still that Sarasota to the big bend should be on high alert, but I’d much rather leave decisive statements to the people who do this for a living.

So here's what we heard from just about everybody in church today (this is in DeSoto County, btw).

"It's going to the Panhandle now."

"It's going to Tampa."

"It's going north of Tampa. We're out of the cone."

"It's going to fizzle out in the Gulf."

"It's not coming here"

"It's going to the east coast."

"It's just going to be a little wind and rain. No big deal."



My point? TWC and other "officials" definitely need to do a better job of educating the public. They OBVIOUSLY hear a partial - something - spoken, maybe ONCE and then latch onto it.

LOTS of disinformation bouncing around here today, and it could cost lots of people dearly.

Even after telling you that Wal-mart and other stores are PACKED and they are out of water and gas and other things, they STILL insist there's no threat.

[SapphireSea]

With Ian, more than ever, the old adage to track and watch MLCs within convection rather than low-level eddies or former centers: Ring True. This is much like a few storms we seen in the past in Isaac / Isaias where an LLC gets replaced many times, and the fact that there are so many competing centers keep it weaker than expected for longer. The other fly in the ointment is going to be the track / momentum of whatever center truly takes over as they -could- be influenced by the other circulations to make unforecasted wobbles or movements.

Ultimately I think as most tropical systems, whatever center is being generated by convection will end up winning out and end up being influenced by others. For example if a dying but also vigorous mid-low level center is to the E of a newer center, this new center might be steered S and W ward a bit. Vice-versa if an old center is W-ward then we can see more of a N and E wobble until it dissipates.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574043337165676544?t=rdDkfxI173tgdGYvAmOtzA&s=19
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574045180541300736?t=va5MiNUxqaSeYp4JNNkf9A&s=19
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1574057672898330625?t=0mjNEgs7BwOVxPquzIEjjg&s=19
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1574079140826910722?t=VpK4DPVp5W03QUo3t_LFDA&s=19

Watching Ian kinda feels like watching a match in a pool of gasoline. You know it’s going to ignite soon despite it taking a while, but you’re still waiting for that spark to set things in motion. Ian is eventually going to ignite, whether it be this afternoon or tonight or tomorrow morning or maybe not until it’s about to make landfall. Maybe sunset/DMax will help trigger the deep convection that’ll lead to Ian’s expected intensification.