ATL: IAN - Models

[MJGarrison]

06Z Euro is ever so slightly NE through 90. 9mb weaker, also.


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[ConvergenceZone]

Is Wxman leaning toward GFS or Euro?

Yea, as someone else mentioned, wxman doesn't see anyway that the GFS verifies, which is why he's sticking to his Southwest Florida landfall. The last I heard he was predicting a Fort Myers(or somewhere in that vicinity) landfall....not sure if that's changed in the last couple of hours though...

[BobHarlem]

18z Euro at its endpoint of 72 hours matches the 12z to its end, pretty much over Grand Cayman.

[ronjon]

There isn't a big move coming from South to North. It's a minimal longitude move from Ft. Myers to Tampa when traversing that way. Trust me, I know. I was in the path of Charley until a minimal jog occured

I hear ya brother. Watched and bit my nails with Charlie and Irma but the magical tampa deflector shield popped up at the last minute.

I did get hammered hard though brother on Indian Rocks beach with Irma. Winds measured up to 100 mph. Lost lots of trees, fencing and no power for 5 or 6 days. My neighbor came through with a front loader to clear the streets. We alway get it bad near the beach. Same with Frances and Jeanne. It was weird, I drove to Tampa after Irma and didn't see nearly as much damage

Yeah was really referring to storm surge...had Irma come further north along the coast, we would've be hammered by 10 feet of surge.

[otowntiger]

06Z Euro is ever so slightly NE through 90. 9mb weaker, also.


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Not surprised that it’s weaker. It seems to be struggling with shear perhaps longer than expected.

[Abdullah]

A few months back I saw this website (I'm pretty sure from this forum somewhere) that showed a list of all the model runs and their specific times along with whether they'd started, were initializing, and so on and so forth. It was just a white background, times new roman font text, and was very expansive. Does anyone on here know of this website?

Tropical Tidbits- owned and operated by Levi Cowan

Nah it wasn't that, I found what I was looking for -> https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

[Iceresistance]

A few months back I saw this website (I'm pretty sure from this forum somewhere) that showed a list of all the model runs and their specific times along with whether they'd started, were initializing, and so on and so forth. It was just a white background, times new roman font text, and was very expansive. Does anyone on here know of this website?

Tropical Tidbits- owned and operated by Levi Cowan

Nah it wasn't that, I found what I was looking for -> https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

It can be searched as "NCEP Model Status"

This website does the status of the model runs based from the United States, the NAM, GFS, GEFS, RAP, and HRRR.

[Abdullah]

18Z HWRF is trending slower and farther east

Looks like it actually ends up further west to me, or at the very least where it was before.

Yeah you're right

It's funny how these things work, in the early hours they could be one direction but in the long term they actually end up going the other way.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/Weathernerds/status/1573468101558927360

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF

[Poonwalker]

Is Wxman leaning toward GFS or Euro?

Yea, as someone else mentioned, wxman doesn't see anyway that the GFS verifies, which is why he's sticking to his Southwest Florida landfall. The last I heard he was predicting a Fort Myers(or somewhere in that vicinity) landfall....not sure if that's changed in the last couple of hours though...

He predicted just north of Tampa to Sarasota. The GFS and it’s ensemble has been all over the place and still is. It has the trough moving out quicker which leaves a very weak steering situation. The key will be how long the trough digs in and whether it gains a reinforcing surge as predicted by the Euro. Euro is launching the storm a bit farther north and quicker than the Gfs which plays a role in the overall influence of the trough when the storm is in the GOM as well.

[crimi481]

Are any Models showing it stalls in n.e. Gulf? Does loop di loops?

[skyline385]

18Z Euro



Compared to 12Z

[tolakram]

18Z euro trend

[caneseddy]

18Z Euro

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/e13ad0bc26c2895cc085e642b1eb9cb8.jpg

Compared to 12Z

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220924/c61bafc3ea876cb63f088f3d3a57366a.jpg

Just a smidge east than on the 12z..may not seem like much there but that could make a huge difference where it landfalls in Florida...wish it would go out more than 90 hours

Also if you extrapolate out; it would be passing just east of Havana, but barely.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Blown Away]

18Z euro trend
https://i.imgur.com/m8AizRs.gif

Thank you, you do a great job posting relevant info…

[sma10]

18Z euro trend
https://i.imgur.com/m8AizRs.gif

Let's admit - if the Euro ends up being wrong, it's at least been consistent

[Bocadude85]

Is Wxman leaning toward GFS or Euro?

Yea, as someone else mentioned, wxman doesn't see anyway that the GFS verifies, which is why he's sticking to his Southwest Florida landfall. The last I heard he was predicting a Fort Myers(or somewhere in that vicinity) landfall....not sure if that's changed in the last couple of hours though...

He predicted just north of Tampa to Sarasota. The GFS and it’s ensemble has been all over the place and still is. It has the trough moving out quicker which leaves a very weak steering situation. The key will be how long the trough digs in and whether it gains a reinforcing surge as predicted by the Euro. Euro is launching the storm a bit farther north and quicker than the Gfs which plays a role in the overall influence of the trough when the storm is in the GOM as well.

Last forecast I saw from wxman was landfall in Ft.Myers at 85kts..did I miss his updated forecast?

[caneseddy]

Yea, as someone else mentioned, wxman doesn't see anyway that the GFS verifies, which is why he's sticking to his Southwest Florida landfall. The last I heard he was predicting a Fort Myers(or somewhere in that vicinity) landfall....not sure if that's changed in the last couple of hours though...

He predicted just north of Tampa to Sarasota. The GFS and it’s ensemble has been all over the place and still is. It has the trough moving out quicker which leaves a very weak steering situation. The key will be how long the trough digs in and whether it gains a reinforcing surge as predicted by the Euro. Euro is launching the storm a bit farther north and quicker than the Gfs which plays a role in the overall influence of the trough when the storm is in the GOM as well.

Last forecast I saw from wxman was landfall in Ft.Myers at 85kts..did I miss his updated forecast?

That's what I last saw as well.

[Blown Away]

He predicted just north of Tampa to Sarasota. The GFS and it’s ensemble has been all over the place and still is. It has the trough moving out quicker which leaves a very weak steering situation. The key will be how long the trough digs in and whether it gains a reinforcing surge as predicted by the Euro. Euro is launching the storm a bit farther north and quicker than the Gfs which plays a role in the overall influence of the trough when the storm is in the GOM as well.

Last forecast I saw from wxman was landfall in Ft.Myers at 85kts..did I miss his updated forecast?

That's what I last saw as well.

5pm was moved slightly W and finished just offshore just S of Tampa area..