ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

LLC coming together pretty quickly as it enters the eastern carrib. Convection should increase soon as divergent flow moves overhead. Wont be much longer.

https://i.ibb.co/sWPF2Dy/llllllll.png

https://i.ibb.co/S79c255/G16-ABI-FD-BAND02-20220921-143020.gif

https://i.ibb.co/2v8Hbk8/G16-ABI-FD-BAND02-20220921-153020.gif

Im thinking most likely it wont be classified until this weekend, the models dont show much development until this is west of PR's meridian and it does not look good right now. Kind of reminds of another storm that stayed south initially and looked really ragged before becoming a major, but cant remember the name right now..this was early 2000s maybe even late 90s.

This gives the wave around 35W enough time to become Hermine. I think the odds are pretty good this will become Ian.

[wxman57]

I see no LLC even starting to organize. Just a tropical wave that's heading for northerly shear produced by Fiona's outflow. Could become a TD Friday afternoon. More likely on Saturday.

[Blown Away]

LLC coming together pretty quickly as it enters the eastern carrib. Convection should increase soon as divergent flow moves overhead. Wont be much longer.

https://i.ibb.co/sWPF2Dy/llllllll.png

https://i.ibb.co/S79c255/G16-ABI-FD-BAND02-20220921-143020.gif

https://i.ibb.co/2v8Hbk8/G16-ABI-FD-BAND02-20220921-153020.gif

Nice to have you back Aric... Good timing as 98L becomes front and center...

[ConvergenceZone]

I see no LLC even starting to organize. Just a tropical wave that's heading for northerly shear produced by Fiona's outflow. Could become a TD Friday afternoon. More likely on Saturday.

Hopefully this just becomes a sheared mess due to the trough and nothing big to worry about.................

[Javlin]

I see no LLC even starting to organize. Just a tropical wave that's heading for northerly shear produced by Fiona's outflow. Could become a TD Friday afternoon. More likely on Saturday.

I have to agree ATTM but starting to feel the further S and W this moves without some real development in the next 48hrs the more W it goes?

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity
near the southern Windward Islands and over adjacent waters. The
system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely
become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the
southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central
Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands
should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are affecting these islands. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern
Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later
this week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to survey the system this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Hurricanehink]

LLC coming together pretty quickly as it enters the eastern carrib. Convection should increase soon as divergent flow moves overhead. Wont be much longer.

https://i.ibb.co/sWPF2Dy/llllllll.png

https://i.ibb.co/S79c255/G16-ABI-FD-BAND02-20220921-143020.gif

https://i.ibb.co/2v8Hbk8/G16-ABI-FD-BAND02-20220921-153020.gif

Im thinking most likely it wont be classified until this weekend, the models dont show much development until this is west of PR's meridian and it does not look good right now. Kind of reminds of another storm that stayed south initially and looked really ragged before becoming a major, but cant remember the name right now..this was early 2000s maybe even late 90s.

Isidore 02?

[SFLcane]

I don't trust 12Z GFS. Drives it right into a west-east jet core. Sheared storms (west-east) always track right of the forecast.

This!

[psyclone]

Thank goodness we've survived our annual model storm here in the Tampa bay area!

[SouthDadeFish]

I see no LLC even starting to organize. Just a tropical wave that's heading for northerly shear produced by Fiona's outflow. Could become a TD Friday afternoon. More likely on Saturday.

There are signs of a very weak surface circulation forming south of Grenada. Note the cyclonic surface flow and weak pressure gradient. Convection is pretty disorganized. Both the 12Z EC and GFS show a closed surface circulation formed by the end of the day Thursday. It's unclear if enough organized convective activity will be present to classify 98L as a TC at that time.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1572642830753091585

[Tireman4]

I am not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on tv, but gee, is this not hyping a bit much

"This is the most significant threat for the U.S. mainland we've had this hurricane season," AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
The system, known now as Invest 98L, was located near the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday.
An "Invest" is an area that the National Hurricane Center is watching closely with advanced computer models and other resources, including the Hurricane Hunters, for possible development, according to Weather.com.
Most computer models predict the system will be a tropical storm by the weekend in the Caribbean. The models then show the system strengthening into a hurricane by early next week. If it becomes a named storm, it would be called Hermine. According to Weather.com, t​he majority of computer forecast models curl the system – probably at hurricane strength – northward into the Gulf of Mexico around the middle of next week."


https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... 6#comments

[Hammy]

[MississippiWx]

I am not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on tv, but gee, is this not hyping a bit much

"This is the most significant threat for the U.S. mainland we've had this hurricane season," AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
The system, known now as Invest 98L, was located near the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday.
An "Invest" is an area that the National Hurricane Center is watching closely with advanced computer models and other resources, including the Hurricane Hunters, for possible development, according to Weather.com.
Most computer models predict the system will be a tropical storm by the weekend in the Caribbean. The models then show the system strengthening into a hurricane by early next week. If it becomes a named storm, it would be called Hermine. According to Weather.com, t​he majority of computer forecast models curl the system – probably at hurricane strength – northward into the Gulf of Mexico around the middle of next week."


https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... 6#comments

I'm sure this topic will be deemed "off-topic" material by mods, but I read this earlier. It is nothing more than click-bait material by Accuweather. The forecast even looks official with not much mention of it not being an official forecast. It's just your typical "want to be first" headline from media.

[Poonwalker]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOV92rd1WFE

[wxman57]

That's it! I hate the ECMWF now. What does it have against Mickey Mouse? We have a vacation planned to Disney World Oct 22-29. Hope the power is back on by then.

Seriously, the EC sees the west-east jet core across the Gulf, GFS just drives the storm right into it. EC is more believable, though nowhere on the peninsula is safe yet.

[Iceresistance]

That's it! I hate the ECMWF now. What does it have against Mickey Mouse? We have a vacation planned to Disney World Oct 22-29. Hope the power is back on by then.

Seriously, the EC sees the west-east jet core across the Gulf, GFS just drives the storm right into it. EC is more believable, though nowhere on the peninsula is safe yet.

A bit OT, but I went there in April/June, this is the exact reason why we've decided to go there then and not now.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572658661201440768

[Hurricane Mike]

An afternoon video update on 98L (and the others of course)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2knBk9c0cE

[wxman57]

That's it! I hate the ECMWF now. What does it have against Mickey Mouse? We have a vacation planned to Disney World Oct 22-29. Hope the power is back on by then.

Seriously, the EC sees the west-east jet core across the Gulf, GFS just drives the storm right into it. EC is more believable, though nowhere on the peninsula is safe yet.

A bit OT, but I went there in April/June, this is the exact reason why we've decided to go there then and not now.

Well, it's an 8-day forecast. April-June is my busiest time of year, plus there's no Halloween party then. There's always a hurricane threat a week or two before our trip. Lots of uncertainties beyond 3-4 days. Not impossible for it to skirt the southern peninsula and head out to sea. Best case.

Doesn't look even remotely close to becoming a TD this afternoon. Little swirls here and there are meaningless at this point. Oh, it's going to develop, but not today.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2022092118, , BEST, 0, 110N, 620W, 30, 1007, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982022.dat