ATL: NICOLE - Models

[jlauderdal]

Good shift to south by the 12z early models, including the TVCN consensus, I would expect a shift south by the NHC's track.
UKMET is keeping the TVCN from being even further south towards Palm Beach County.

https://i.imgur.com/Ww86RpY.gif

Not surprising tvcn came south based on our friend the GFS. Gonna have to include myself now for landfall...Hollywood to Melbourne, significant shift south as Stuart was on my southerly point earlier

[tolakram]

Just curious for our experts please describe what the models 48 hours from potential landfall in general got it right with Ian ? There seemed to be a consensus that was all Tampa and I think was underplaying storm winds. All accept the ICON got it right as far as landfall don’t remember what it predicted in storm winds. But it was a complete miss at 48 hours including the NHC !

Please do not follow any single model, they all have their strengths and weaknesses and will vary wildly based on upper level conditions. In the case of Ian the forecast was initially pulled to far north due to the GFS insisting on a more northerly track. Model watchers noted the GFS was an outlier. In this case the GFS is furthest south at the moment, but the models are generally close with variance in the windfield size. If the GFS gets it right this time I don't think we all will start following everything the GFS indicates.

[BobHarlem]

12z icon is landfall in Palm Bay cat 1 then briefly gets into the Gulf. Please do not latch on to the Icon (or any model really) it's more for the trends.

[tolakram]

ICON missing some frames on tidbits but looks to be a bit stronger.

[tolakram]

[AdamFirst]

12z ICON landfalls on the St Lucie-Indian River County line, pretty much same as last run. Stronger at landfall, though.

[tolakram]

12Z ICON landfall

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[AdamFirst]

12z GEM (Canadian) into Indian River-Brevard County line.

[SFLcane]

NeW GFS...

 https://twitter.com/OnTropics/status/1589649101846908929

[Hypercane_Kyle]

For those wondering, the 16.3 is what's going to replace the current version of the GFS.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: landfall near/just south of Cape Canaveral, which is similar to its prior run and 100+ miles north of Euro, GFS, and JMA but is similar to CMC and just north of ICON (interesting battle between Euro/GFS/JMA and UKMET/ICON/CMC) (Euro 12Z not out yet)



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.11.2022

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.3N 69.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.11.2022 0 26.3N 69.1W 1004 37
0000UTC 08.11.2022 12 26.9N 70.8W 1002 33
1200UTC 08.11.2022 24 27.6N 72.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 09.11.2022 36 27.4N 74.6W 1000 45
1200UTC 09.11.2022 48 27.0N 76.2W 998 42
0000UTC 10.11.2022 60 27.0N 78.5W 997 45
1200UTC 10.11.2022 72 28.4N 81.1W 996 38
0000UTC 11.11.2022 84 29.2N 83.2W 997 31
1200UTC 11.11.2022 96 30.8N 83.3W 1001 29
0000UTC 12.11.2022 108 34.8N 80.3W 1000 33
1200UTC 12.11.2022 120 40.2N 73.5W 992 46
0000UTC 13.11.2022 132 48.7N 64.6W 983 41
1200UTC 13.11.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

[cane5]

Just curious for our experts please describe what the models 48 hours from potential landfall in general got it right with Ian ? There seemed to be a consensus that was all Tampa and I think was underplaying storm winds. All accept the ICON got it right as far as landfall don’t remember what it predicted in storm winds. But it was a complete miss at 48 hours including the NHC !

Please do not follow any single model, they all have their strengths and weaknesses and will vary wildly based on upper level conditions. In the case of Ian the forecast was initially pulled to far north due to the GFS insisting on a more northerly track. Model watchers noted the GFS was an outlier. In this case the GFS is furthest south at the moment, but the models are generally close with variance in the windfield size. If the GFS gets it right this time I don't think we all will start following everything the GFS indicates.

Cool thanks Tolka

[NDG]

At least we are seeing better consensus from the latest global models.

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS...

[LarryWx]

I think the 12Z UKMET track is probably too far north. Why? Because it initialized at 26.3 N, 69.1 W. The NHC actual position for then was 25.9 N, 69.1 W. This means Nicole was initialized by the 12Z UKMET ~30 miles too far north.

[JPmia]

For those wondering, the 16.3 is what's going to replace the current version of the GFS.

Is there a link for the 16.3 GFS version?

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z HWRF coming in much stronger thru 40 hrs

[Canelaw99]

Well….

 https://twitter.com/craigsetzer/status/1589664531613188096

[SFLcane]

Woah... huge