ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Maybe this is the burst, but I've seen a few of these die out. We need more than one tower IMO.

[dukeblue219]

Hurricane intensity has been pushed back 24-30 hours over the last few advisory cycles and starting to run out of time

Not quite sure I'd agree with that... There is a ton of time left for this thing to become a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

I don’t see the track shifted much at all this advisory.

The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in
this direction, but only on the order of 15-20 n mi in the extended
range.

[Hammy]

Hurricane intensity has been pushed back 24-30 hours over the last few advisory cycles and starting to run out of time

Not quite sure I'd agree with that... There is a ton of time left for this thing to become a hurricane.

It's going to have to ramp up soon to reach hurricane intensity before Cuba.

[sma10]

Hurricane intensity has been pushed back 24-30 hours over the last few advisory cycles and starting to run out of time. Either this is going to do what the season as a whole did continue to struggle, only to explode at the last minute, or we're going to see a major forecasting bust like we did with Debby in 2000 and Erika in 2015.

I'd say the chances are 50/50 in either direction at this point.

Meanwhile, the storm has done precisely what the Euro has predicted over the past several cycles. No intensification until approach to Cuba. The "bust" is on the GFS/HWRF

[tropicwatch]

I guess recon flights are able to fly over Cuba now since the newest recon is doing just that.

Was about to mention that and will save time.

[islandgirl45]

The new NHC track puts the eye of Ian about 50 miles to my west off the Pinellas coast at 28.3/84.0, albeit weakening to a Cat 2 (85 kt)

That point is 75 miles offshore. Consensus is about 30 miles offshore. NHC will be adjusting closer to you tonight. Be prepared for hurricane conditions Thursday.

If the NHC adjusts the 11pm track to roughly the location of where the TVCN is now, and given the NHC's current intensity forecast for Ian, would you generally expect coastal Volusia County (Daytona Beach and south) to experience tropical storm winds? Or something less?

[gatorcane]

Sat loop showing the northward jog:

[Jelmergraaff]

Maybe this is the burst, but I've seen a few of these die out. We need more than one tower IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/qURQV2z.gif

I have not seen such a strong burst yet. This could well be what takes it into RI-stage.

[USTropics]

Some observations from today:

Mid-level circulation was slightly offset to the SE from the LLC earlier today, you can see this in the HWRF analysis. There is also some subtle dry air towards the western quadrant that is noticeable, and this has likely put a cap on convection in combination with d-min as the circulation has expanded (typical evolution of a developing system).


This was also observed in the CIMSS 700mb (mid-level) vort signature. Here is an animation that shows the MLC sort of lurching north in the past 3-6 hours. This has likely caused the more northward motion observed earlier today on satellite.


Compare this to the LLC, and the system is now more vertically stacked:


Convection will increase into the evening and overnight and we can start to see this now on satellite imagery. The latest signs of vertical hot towers is another indication the storm is becoming more vertically stacked, as this is a mechanism to tighten the circulation up so to speak. Expect some pulse up and pulse down phases as it continues to develop over night.

[StPeteMike]

Though I expected a steady increase of strength today and pretty much Ian wanted to just stay as is, tomorrow SHOULD be different. It looks like it’s trying to get its outflow set up to feed into it all day Monday, we will have to see if it stays together overnight.

[psyclone]

The overall convective canopy seems to be thickening.

[StormPyrate]

That looked like a fairly substantial North jog on vis!

it was, as discussed on the 5PM NHC discussion

[eastcoastFL]

That northern jog put Ian to the right of everything for the moment. Let’s see if he gets back on course or if there’s some major shifts, I’d say the whole state is still in play for Florida.

[eastcoastFL]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/t ... eFinal.gif

[Nimbus]

That looked like a fairly substantial North jog on vis!

it was, as discussed on the 5PM NHC discussion

5 PM discussion track history:
"PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H"
That is the heading I get if I average the storm track 10 hours from sunrise to the convective burst near sunset.
NW is 315 degrees which recon may find in a few hours or we can calculate in the morning.
They have till 36 hours before landfall to shift the track but I'm not sure they will follow the TVCN this time.

[Iceresistance]

Recon is booking it towards Ian, bearing is at 377 knots (433.8 mph).

[eastcoastFL]

Now this is kinda funny. My local NOAA forecast has had “tropical storm conditions possible” put up taken down and put back up twice today. Last time they were up for wed and wed night now it’s Wed night - thu night

Wednesday NightTropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
ThursdayTropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday NightTropical storm conditions possible. A 40 percent chance

[ConvergenceZone]

Maybe this is the burst, but I've seen a few of these die out. We need more than one tower IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/qURQV2z.gif

That is definitely a really nice tower....Like you said, we'll see if this one is able to persist.

[HippyFarmGirl]

Consensus is about 30 miles offshore. NHC will be adjusting closer to you tonight. Be prepared for hurricane conditions Thursday.

wxman57 has your position changed with the latest round of data? Last I saw, you had said about 50 miles north of Tampa.