ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[Kazmit]

989mb is unexpectedly impressive. I was not expecting much strengthening.

[Hurrilurker]

This guy Ian seems to really be stumping at least some of the models. Not only has the track been all over the place after coming off Cuba, but the predicted organization either isn't happening or is happening later than predicted, earlier estimates were ~60-70 KT by this time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

8kts at flight level and 40 kts at surface. It's not quite aligned but close

[Teban54]

Wow, 989mb extrapolated with a tiny pressure gradient. Maybe the HAFS’s solutions of a pinhole-into-EWRC structure for tomorrow might verify.

And the board went from "not even a Cat 1" to "pinhole RI" in 2 hours.

[InfernoFlameCat]

We might get a special advisory for this. Wow.

[johngaltfla]

Just like Cheez said, from "downcasting" to "oh crap, time to drag out the plywood" in less than 12 hours.

[Hammy]

Wow! Ian fooled us all today. Went the unorthodox way of intensifying by not building convection, just gradually tightening the circulation to an eye-like appearance.

Special advisory probably needed.

There's an hour until the intermediate, since it's not at hurricane intensity they might wait.

[Abdullah]

Dropsonde found 993 millibars with 35 knot winds

[InfernoFlameCat]

Dropsonde found 993 millibars with 35 knot winds

https://i.imgur.com/vziRthn.png

That supports 990-989mb right there. Pressure confirmed. Wow.

[PandaCitrus]

A lot can happen in 36 hours. Kind of scary how quickly storms in this area can ramp up. There is going to be a major freak out if we see a Cat 4 with the NHC path hitting Tampa tomorrow or Tuesday.

Just like Cheez said, from "downcasting" to "oh crap, time to drag out the plywood" in less than 12 hours.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 50 kt for the intensity based on that data, with respect for the rapid drop in pressure (now looks to be 990 mb).

[HurricaneBelle]

We might get a special advisory for this. Wow.

Unless there's a change in watches/warnings necessitated by this, we don't need one.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1574167714372804608




image copy

[Sciencerocks]

[zhukm29]

A lot of systems look bad right before they explode in good conditions. There's more than enough time for Ian to become a powerful cyclone, given the time it has in pristine conditions. Once things fully align, Ian will be off to the races, which is why when we shouldn't be downcasting before the nuke is ready to explode

[skillz305]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3109/Xfbp1o.gif

My god that storm looking North

[psyclone]

This system is mirroring the season...delayed but not denied.

[JaxGator]

Wow! Ian fooled us all today. Went the unorthodox way of intensifying by not building convection, just gradually tightening the circulation to an eye-like appearance.

Special advisory probably needed.

Definitely a power keg ready to go off. At least it’s starting to look like it atm. Ian trying to fool us like the Dark Lord’s Sauron and Sidious, only revealing their true nature when ready.

[CronkPSU]

maybe the NHC and every model will get it wrong but I am thinking a lot of these posts about how it will never develop and why is it so weak will look pretty silly in 24 hours....it has more than enough time and favorable conditions to get to Cat 4

I guess I should have said the doubters might look pretty silly in under THREE hours, not 24…