ATL: IAN - Models
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
80kt/969mb by 06z Monday morning on the HWRF. This is shaping up to possibly be its strongest run yet.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Euro sticking to its guns looks like. Interesting
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
chris_fit wrote:LarryWx wrote:chris_fit wrote:Anyone have 12z UKMET?
12Z UKMET: strongest run yet and SW of prior run with LF near Tampa area:
TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 74.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2022 0 14.7N 74.5W 1007 26
0000UTC 25.09.2022 12 14.2N 77.0W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.09.2022 24 14.9N 79.2W 1004 27
0000UTC 26.09.2022 36 15.4N 81.4W 1003 25
1200UTC 26.09.2022 48 17.0N 82.8W 1002 30
0000UTC 27.09.2022 60 18.9N 84.2W 1001 30
1200UTC 27.09.2022 72 20.9N 85.1W 998 34
0000UTC 28.09.2022 84 23.0N 85.6W 996 42
1200UTC 28.09.2022 96 24.5N 85.8W 994 42
0000UTC 29.09.2022 108 25.6N 85.1W 993 51
1200UTC 29.09.2022 120 26.6N 84.1W 991 55
0000UTC 30.09.2022 132 27.0N 83.2W 986 54
1200UTC 30.09.2022 144 28.3N 82.5W 987 47
Thanks Larry. Where was the previous LF?
Is pretty much on the same track as its previous 0z run.
What is weird is that the UKMET has been left biased most often than not this season.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Euro sticking to its guns looks like. Interesting
The 12Z isnt out yet
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
12z HWRF at 943 mb and 114 knots Tuesday Night near the western tip of Cuba.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
A very close call for the westernmost tip of Cuba.
HMON so far is similar but weaker.
HMON so far is similar but weaker.
Last edited by aspen on Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
The trends on the GFS are interesting, but I'm not sold on it by any means. It's being very inconsistent, shifting as much as 100+ miles west each run. The Euro, thus far, has been very consistent with its solution. If the 12z Euro comes in significantly further north (into the Panhandle), I will be much more inclined to believe the GFS.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Euro sticking to its guns looks like. Interesting
The 12Z isnt out yet
Was looking at the 06z
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
BobHarlem wrote:Quick summary 12z cmc and gfs Destin, shift west. Icon and ukmet shift right. To cedar key and Tampa Bay respectively.
Euro?
Clear as mud.
12Z UKMET didn't shift right. It actually is SW of 0Z points before hitting FL, but still ends up hitting near Tampa area a day later than the 0Z run.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
12z HWRF is currently the strongest run yet
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
I would think the 12z Euro starts to fold to the GFS. 06z ensembles started showing tracks matching GFS so we will see. Something has to give today as this is getting ridiculous.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
HWRF/HMON both show a peak in the low to mid 930s in the southern Gulf late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Out to 120 hours the 12Z UKMET tracks north well offshore west coast of Florida with the other west leaning track models, then the track suddenly turns sharply east and drags back all the west longitude they had gained from the earlier runs?
Its like a Charley move but I don't see any trough split, just a slightly later ridge evolution than the GFS.
The 1031 mb high is centered a little further west over Hamilton NY for the UKMET run.
Its like a Charley move but I don't see any trough split, just a slightly later ridge evolution than the GFS.
The 1031 mb high is centered a little further west over Hamilton NY for the UKMET run.
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:I would think the 12z Euro starts to fold to the GFS. 06z ensembles started showing tracks matching GFS so we will see. Something has to give today as this is getting ridiculous.
wxman57 says it’s the worst model there is for this set up. We shall see!
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:I would think the 12z Euro starts to fold to the GFS. 06z ensembles started showing tracks matching GFS so we will see. Something has to give today as this is getting ridiculous.
This is getting ridiculous, but that doesn’t mean the euro has to fold. Euro is better at picking up patterns more than gfs. Gfs has been widely inconsistent, whereas Euro has been consistent on a peninsula hit. Guess we will see
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SEASON_CANCELED
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
FLWeatherX wrote:PTrackerLA wrote:I would think the 12z Euro starts to fold to the GFS. 06z ensembles started showing tracks matching GFS so we will see. Something has to give today as this is getting ridiculous.
This is getting ridiculous, but that doesn’t mean the euro has to fold. Euro is better at picking up patterns more than gfs. Gfs has been widely inconsistent, whereas Euro has been consistent on a peninsula hit. Guess we will see
It isnt just GFS. CMC aswell, only outlier seems to be UKMET and whatever EURO does
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ObsessedMiami
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Everyone clutching every Magic 8 ball, rabbits foot and Ouija board today for these model runs lol
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