ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Owasso]

[Poonwalker]

Ian has a fully wetted field to play on after he engulfed that upper low. Impressive expansion of moisture content. That was the last obstacle. RI should begin soon

[lando]

Here are a bunch of good webcam links that will be useful and should be saved https://www.fox13news.com/live-weather-webcams

[StPeteMike]

Hurricane watches for much of the west coast of Florida I am assuming at 5 am. Tropical storm warning for the Keys at that time as well.

[eastcoastFL]

I’m guessing that large band to the NE is why we’re still looking at 4-6 inches of rain on this side of the state

[drewschmaltz]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/08/20222681910-20222690040-GOES16-ABI-AL092022-08-1000x1000.gif

Ian has a fully wetted field to play on after he engulfed that upper low. Impressive expansion of moisture content. That was the last obstacle. RI should begin soon

You can clearly see the FIST is developing.

[bcargile]

Guess Jim has decided to go to Clearwater, time for evacuations?

https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1574217798548684801?s=46&t=AHDn9B26Y8x67LdEQ8mIoQ


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Is he a day ahead? Or did I lose a day??

[Fancy1001]

I have a bad feeling that the NHC might be underestimating the max potential intensity if Ian stays on the right half of the cone.

[Blown Away]

It should again be stressed that there is still significant
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time
frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.

11pm Disco… Kinda surprised they still have “significant uncertainty” given the GFS/EURO have generally moved towards an agreement from Big Bend to Tampa??

[skyline385]

It should again be stressed that there is still significant
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time
frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.

11pm Disco… Kinda surprised they still have “significant uncertainty” given the GFS/EURO have generally moved towards an agreement from Big Bend to Tampa??

I dunno this doesn't look very certain to me, also the models have flip flopped a bit daily

[eastcoastFL]

It should again be stressed that there is still significant
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time
frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.

11pm Disco… Kinda surprised they still have “significant uncertainty” given the GFS/EURO have generally moved towards an agreement from Big Bend to Tampa??

I think they said that because they know they might have to move that line over tampa and they don’t want people to think they’re in the clear.

[cheezyWXguy]

It should again be stressed that there is still significant
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time
frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.

11pm Disco… Kinda surprised they still have “significant uncertainty” given the GFS/EURO have generally moved towards an agreement from Big Bend to Tampa??

I’m guessing they’re saying that because even small track changes have large effects on the impacts experienced at a given location

[beachnut]

Well, after seeing the 11pm it's clear we need to leave. My Dad's house in Estero is a few miles inland and available since he's up north so that looks like the best option, otherwise it's my brother's place in Pompano. The house is ready, spent all day yesterday on it, just need to close the shutters and put up the fabric panel for the lanai opening, then go through the painstaking decisions about what to take beyond the important papers, clothes, etc. Can't take it all unfortunately. Such a pain in a$$ leaving but I know our elevation and what the high tides and king tides do on our basin so not taking any chances. It's like Irma all over again, except this time I don't think we'll be spared from the surge and will likely have significant damage. I hope and pray that I'm wrong. Everybody please be safe ...

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.postimg.cc/YC9R30mG/image.png

Okie dokie...that does not look good at all

Also wow, the NHC's newest cone is going to stir up quite the talk. This has the potential to be a very dangerous system. I hope people in Ian's path are prepared.

[Teban54]

What a difference 5 hours can make. Getting that shrimp look at the end.

[HDGator]

Well, after seeing the 11pm it's clear we need to leave. My Dad's house in Estero is a few miles inland and available since he's up north so that looks like the best option, otherwise it's my brother's place in Pompano. The house is ready, spent all day yesterday on it, just need to close the shutters and put up the fabric panel for the lanai opening, then go through the painstaking decisions about what to take beyond the important papers, clothes, etc. Can't take it all unfortunately. Such a pain in a$$ leaving but I know our elevation and what the high tides and king tides do on our basin so not taking any chances. It's like Irma all over again, except this time I don't think we'll be spared from the surge and will likely have significant damage. I hope and pray that I'm wrong. Everybody please be safe ...

It looks like you're making the right decisions to be prepared and making safety the priority. I hope and pray you make it through without serious damage to your home. This is looking more ominous this evening.

[eastcoastFL]

Thank you to the person who provided the cayman radar link. It’s actually not bad

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Huh, so the next Sunday NIght Football game is scheduled to be KC at Tampa Bay....

We’ve seen games be postponed for Hurricanes before. We shall see how everything turns out.

If it hits Tampa hard they might relocate. Maybe even if it just gets close to Tampa, because of the logistics and need to drive in broadcast equipment ahead of time. Might be moved to KC, since there are games that day at many of the logical neutral emergency sites: New Orleans, Houston, Dallas, Indy, Atlanta, Detroit. Might use Cincy, Chicago, or Minneapolis, but I bet they use KC. Jax too close to the path if it impacts Tampa and Miami would have the equip access issues.

Playing right after a hurricane with major damage would be a logistical headache, and bad optics if resources were diverted to restore utilities to the stadium, etc. Could cancel/postpone to let the players deal with their families, but past history suggests they'll most likely to play Sun nite and in KC (if a major hit near Tampa).

Obviously a very unimportant thing compared to possible damage to homes and lives, but an interesting side topic.

Indeed a very interesting topic…

If this storm pops Tampa the way the models & NHC are predicting, this is going to affect sports in the Tampa Bay region for awhile. Bucs and USF Football might have to play their games in Orlando’s Camping World Stadium aka Citrus Bowl. The Rays would have to play their playoff games in Miami. Hell, if Ian is bad enough, the roof of Tropicana Field might not survive…

[chaser1]

It should again be stressed that there is still significant
uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time
frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.

11pm Disco… Kinda surprised they still have “significant uncertainty” given the GFS/EURO have generally moved towards an agreement from Big Bend to Tampa??

Honestly, my guess is that their uncertainty has more to do with the concern that the EURO or GFS might actually continue with easward shifts

[eastcoastFL]

It’s def starting to make some moves. A lot of very cold cloud tops and deep convection continuing. Lots of hot water ahead too and it doesn’t appear to be headed for cubas mountainous areas