ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[JPmia]

I still think that the EC is too far north. The place to watch is the NW Caribbean, not the eastern BoC. Low tracks across the southern FL Peninsula on Saturday, with all squalls well to the east of the center. Recon will likely find 35-40 kt winds in a small area of squalls well east of the center, and the NHC will call it Alex on Friday. Southern Florida is in somewhat of a drought, so the rain may be welcomed. I don't think there will be any land observations of TS sustained wind, just gusts in passing squalls.

Sounds like Tropical Storm and/or PTC watches may be needed for southern Florida then.

[AutoPenalti]

IMO this may be a little bit harder for models to track than what people realize, looks like it's trying to consolidate east of the Yucatan, and it seems to be doing it rather quicker than models have it. Shear is also decreasing in the area.

[cycloneye]

Increasing vorticity east of Yucatán.

[AutoPenalti]

[skyline385]

It's down to 925mb as well, there is also a very distinct increase in it over the last 3 hours.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[Sciencerocks]

[AutoPenalti]

Anti-cyclone will be displaced to the east.

[ChrisH-UK]

Belize and Cancun Radar loops. Looks a bit messy but shows some rotation in it.

[MGC]

CCW rotation becoming evident in visible satellite loop this morning. Looks like an ULL is spinning up over the BOC also. Odds increasing for a TC to form, thinking a TD next 24-36 hours IMO....MGC

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS is darn near locked in with the euro now with a path across South Central FL.

[zzh]

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/gXlK12n.jpg

Yep, clearly seen on vis satellite that the vorticity east of the YP is not quite yet at the surface and surface circulation remains elongated.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very, very broad LLC. Most of the rotation is in the mid-levels.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/gXlK12n.jpg

Getting close!

[cycloneye]

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, gradual
development is forecast and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression while it moves slowly northeastward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next day or two. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula during
the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida,
and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is looking like that vorticity center is trying to tuck under the convection east of it on visible satellite.

[NDG]

Buoy 42056 east of YP reporting pressure down to 1009mb, down 3 mb from 24 hrs ago.


Jun 1, 12:50 pm 79 73 82 ESE 27G36 1009.00

[Sciencerocks]

Getting better organized.

[Jelmergraaff]

Getting better organized.
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/8559/oe4Lbv.gif

I'm noticing two things. For one, it does indeed seem to organise pretty well, at least, better than some models are showing. ECMWF (06z) is for example not really showing any distinct LLC for the coming 24 - 30 hours. The second thing is a movement of the center of convection - which is currently over water - to the NNW. This could indicate a developement like GFS (12z) is showing, where a closed-off system moves right through between Cuba and Cancun.

[AutoPenalti]

Every hour just appears to be better organized.