EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2022071500, , BEST, 0, 110N, 991W, 30, 1009, DB

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1547743742802550784

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962022 07/15/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 54 64 75 84 86 84 83 80 72 66 61 52
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 54 64 75 84 86 84 83 80 72 66 61 52
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 44 52 61 69 71 69 66 61 54 47 40 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 13 14 13 13 11 14 18 20 19 14 9 2 3 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 0 3 0 -2 4 0 -1 0 0 1
SHEAR DIR 60 56 60 61 62 62 84 61 38 28 53 44 52 38 8 167 138
SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.9 27.4 26.7 25.4 24.3 23.0 22.2 21.0
POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 158 160 162 160 153 149 143 143 138 132 118 106 92 85 72
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 74 76 79 78 79 81 80 77 78 76 72 67 64 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 11 11 13 16 20 24 26 26 28 28 27 27 27 24
850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 5 4 14 13 31 31 46 39 31 41 63 63 66 73 60
200 MB DIV 53 67 63 69 88 125 122 162 123 86 118 83 56 32 6 -6 9
700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -3 -8 -3 -8 -5 -4 -3 -1 0
LAND (KM) 568 547 535 527 520 462 416 428 461 598 657 710 764 880 1038 1137 1250
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 11 10 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 27 31 33 31 29 26 16 10 6 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. 29. 27. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 20. 23. 22. 23. 22. 18. 16. 15. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 24. 34. 45. 54. 56. 54. 53. 50. 42. 36. 31. 22.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 99.1

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/15/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 22.1% 17.9% 16.5% 0.0% 18.3% 16.8% 33.7%
Logistic: 1.6% 15.5% 4.9% 3.0% 1.1% 7.4% 18.1% 11.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.3% 2.1%
Consensus: 3.4% 13.5% 7.8% 6.5% 0.4% 8.7% 12.1% 15.7%
DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 8.0% 21.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/15/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

6z GFS more bullish than past runs. 965mb so far at hour 102

[Yellow Evan]

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, continue
to gradually become better organized. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico later today or tonight while moving
toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ27 KNES 150620
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 15/0530Z

C. 11.7N

D. 99.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET
IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON PT BECAUSE BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962022 07/15/22 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 46 58 73 78 79 75 72 67 61 56 49 43
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 46 58 73 78 79 75 72 67 61 56 49 43
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 46 52 54 52 49 46 42 37 32 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 14 13 13 11 12 15 24 23 20 15 8 6 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 0 1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 2
SHEAR DIR 52 52 60 62 54 74 91 58 42 47 43 47 51 15 55 107 135
SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.0 23.4 23.4 22.0 22.4
POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 160 161 157 152 149 144 140 134 125 113 97 97 82 86
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 75 76 77 79 79 78 76 72 72 69 65 60 55 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 11 11 15 17 22 22 25 24 25 25 24 24 21 19
850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 -1 8 9 9 23 39 35 43 50 63 64 70 71 66 67
200 MB DIV 61 57 71 82 119 118 154 158 116 91 68 38 15 0 -19 -8 -14
700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -5 -2 0 -4 -7 -4 -8 -8 -3 -2 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 557 552 550 532 515 452 413 446 532 636 722 850 937 1077 1200 1341 1496
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 11 11 12 13 11 11 11 11 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 31 33 31 29 30 24 14 10 6 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. 33. 32. 30. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 17. 19. 22. 21. 21. 19. 16. 15. 11. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 21. 33. 48. 53. 54. 50. 47. 42. 36. 31. 24. 18.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 99.8

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/15/22 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.34 2.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 1.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 16.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 7.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 4.3% 15.5% 7.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6%
Consensus: 0.2% 9.0% 6.1% 0.4% 0.1% 6.9% 10.5% 2.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/15/22 06 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Satellite data indicate an area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico has become better defined
since yesterday, and its associated showers and thunderstorms show
good signs of organization. If these trends continue, a tropical
depression could form as soon as this morning well offshore of the
coast of southern or southwestern Mexico while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in high seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Reinhart

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ27 KNES 151231
TCSENP

A. NONAME (96E)

B. 15/1130Z

C. 11.8N

D. 101.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET
IS 1.5 DUE TO DEVELOPING TREND. PT IS 2.0.FT IS BASED ON PT DUE BANDING
FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/1112Z 11.8N 101.2W SSMIS


...NGUYEN

[cycloneye]

EP, 06, 2022071512, 01, CARQ, 0, 118N, 1005W, 30, 1007, TD, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 160, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, X, 300, 7, SIX, S,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 06, 2022071512, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1005W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 160, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009, TRANSITIONED, epA62022 to ep062022,

EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 0, 118N, 1005W, 30, 0, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0, , 0, BJR, 305, 8,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 3, 120N, 1008W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 0, , 0, BJR, 300, 7,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 12, 127N, 1019W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, BJR, 305, 9,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 24, 136N, 1035W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 55, 0, , 0, BJR, 300, 9,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 36, 144N, 1049W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 50, 30, 50, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, BJR, 300, 8,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 36, 144N, 1049W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, BJR, 300, 8,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 48, 152N, 1066W, 65, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, BJR, 295, 9,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 48, 152N, 1066W, 65, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, BJR, 295, 9,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 48, 152N, 1066W, 65, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, BJR, 295, 9,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 60, 159N, 1082W, 75, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 60, 70, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, BJR, 295, 8,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 60, 159N, 1082W, 75, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, BJR, 295, 8,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 60, 159N, 1082W, 75, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 0, 15, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, BJR, 295, 8,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 72, 167N, 1102W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 70, 80, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0, , 0, BJR, 295, 10,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 72, 167N, 1102W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0, , 0, BJR, 295, 10,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 72, 167N, 1102W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0, , 0, BJR, 295, 10,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 96, 180N, 1150W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0, , 0, BJR, 285, 12,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 96, 180N, 1150W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0, , 0, BJR, 285, 12,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 120, 195N, 1200W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, BJR, 290, 12,
EP, 06, 2022071512, 03, OFCL, 120, 195N, 1200W, 70, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, BJR, 290, 12,

[Kingarabian]

Tricky shear forecast. Let's see what it can do.

[cycloneye]

This could be another major cane for EPAC in 2022.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very
conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system
will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C
SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer
northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening,
and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential
for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h).

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

This could be another major cane for EPAC in 2022.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very
conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system
will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C
SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer
northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening,
and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential
for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h).

Depending on local factors, this could easily be a problem actually.

[cycloneye]

This could be another major cane for EPAC in 2022.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very
conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system
will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C
SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer
northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening,
and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential
for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h).

Depending on local factors, this could easily be a problem actually.

What you mean by local factors?

[Yellow Evan]

This could be another major cane for EPAC in 2022.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very
conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system
will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C
SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer
northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening,
and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential
for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h).

Depending on local factors, this could easily be a problem actually.

GFS for days has gone off and on on how much of a problem it will pose. I probably wouldn’t have gone beyond 75 knots for peak yet though if the vortex is strong enough to fend off the shear it certainly could bust low.

[Kingarabian]

This could be another major cane for EPAC in 2022.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very
conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system
will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C
SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer
northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening,
and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential
for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h).

Depending on local factors, this could easily be a problem actually.

What you mean by local factors?

Core structure, DMIN/DMAX timing, dry air intrusion.