EPAC: FRANK - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139504
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Inner core forming? We need an ASCAT to verify.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972022 07/26/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 47 54 58 64 68 76 82 86 84 80 75 71
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 47 54 58 64 68 76 82 86 84 80 75 71
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 45 49 53 60 70 77 77 70 61 52
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 15 20 19 16 24 17 16 11 11 10 7 13 9 13 8 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 2 -3 0 2 1 0 -2 0 0 0 2 2 2
SHEAR DIR 66 54 57 53 47 50 48 44 12 5 25 47 67 74 96 103 60
SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.3 28.8 28.7 28.0 26.8 25.8 24.4 23.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 155 151 149 150 149 153 157 158 152 151 144 131 121 108 103
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1
700-500 MB RH 79 76 73 71 69 70 68 69 72 74 71 72 71 70 69 60 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 15 16 20 22 25 24 24 22 22
850 MB ENV VOR 33 14 8 14 17 22 13 26 34 41 46 36 41 32 42 45 73
200 MB DIV 99 59 12 8 50 77 68 45 70 89 121 111 125 34 42 9 9
700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -6 -5 -3 1 -3 3 0 3
LAND (KM) 584 640 698 723 751 801 865 905 994 1095 1086 1064 1036 981 968 1091 1274
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 10 8 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 8 12 14
HEAT CONTENT 25 26 30 31 27 19 16 20 20 19 21 17 9 2 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 35. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 12. 11. 8. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 24. 28. 34. 38. 46. 52. 56. 54. 50. 45. 41.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 100.2
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 07/26/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.15 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -3.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.4% 13.1% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0%
Logistic: 3.4% 17.4% 5.8% 3.3% 1.5% 3.6% 10.3% 28.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 9.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
Consensus: 3.3% 14.3% 6.9% 5.1% 0.7% 1.3% 3.4% 13.5%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 8.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 07/26/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972022 07/26/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 47 54 58 64 68 76 82 86 84 80 75 71
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 47 54 58 64 68 76 82 86 84 80 75 71
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 45 49 53 60 70 77 77 70 61 52
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 15 20 19 16 24 17 16 11 11 10 7 13 9 13 8 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 2 -3 0 2 1 0 -2 0 0 0 2 2 2
SHEAR DIR 66 54 57 53 47 50 48 44 12 5 25 47 67 74 96 103 60
SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.3 28.8 28.7 28.0 26.8 25.8 24.4 23.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 155 151 149 150 149 153 157 158 152 151 144 131 121 108 103
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1
700-500 MB RH 79 76 73 71 69 70 68 69 72 74 71 72 71 70 69 60 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 15 16 20 22 25 24 24 22 22
850 MB ENV VOR 33 14 8 14 17 22 13 26 34 41 46 36 41 32 42 45 73
200 MB DIV 99 59 12 8 50 77 68 45 70 89 121 111 125 34 42 9 9
700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -6 -5 -3 1 -3 3 0 3
LAND (KM) 584 640 698 723 751 801 865 905 994 1095 1086 1064 1036 981 968 1091 1274
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 10 8 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 8 12 14
HEAT CONTENT 25 26 30 31 27 19 16 20 20 19 21 17 9 2 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 35. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 12. 11. 8. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 24. 28. 34. 38. 46. 52. 56. 54. 50. 45. 41.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 100.2
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 07/26/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.15 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -3.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.4% 13.1% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0%
Logistic: 3.4% 17.4% 5.8% 3.3% 1.5% 3.6% 10.3% 28.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 9.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
Consensus: 3.3% 14.3% 6.9% 5.1% 0.7% 1.3% 3.4% 13.5%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 8.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 07/26/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
This is going to be a problem. Like shear so bad fully exposed LLC problem. Afterwards the upper level environment gets much better tbf but the short term isn’t pretty.
0 likes
-
Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3419
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716216123485585469/1001325657441194064/IMG_0799.png
This is going to be a problem. Like shear so bad fully exposed LLC problem. Afterwards the upper level environment gets much better tbf but the short term isn’t pretty.
Wow, yeah I agree. If it were in that white ring to the north, then it would have a much easier time strengthening, but that blue wall of shear seems to be a near-term hurdle. Let's see how future Frank fares against that
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
-
Sciencerocks
- Category 5
- Posts: 7294
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
-
ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4620
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 101.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 11.4N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 11.8N 103.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 12.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 12.2N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 12.5N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 12.8N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 13.3N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 101.8W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 11.4N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 11.8N 103.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 12.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 12.2N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 12.5N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 12.8N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 13.3N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
0 likes
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139504
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Conventional satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated
with the low pressure area south of southern Mexico has continued
to increase and become better organized. An earlier SSMIS
microwave overpass revealed an improved low-level structure,
although most of the deep convection was located over the western
portion of the system due to moderate easterly shear. A couple of
scatterometer overpasses between 0330 and 0500 UTC showed that the
circulation had become much better defined and the system had peak
winds around 30 kt. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB
have also increased to T2.0, and based on all the above data,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seven-E. The
initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, in agreement with both the
ASCAT data and the subjective Dvorak estimates.
Moderate easterly shear is forecast to plague the system over the
next 24 to 48 hours, however most of the intensity guidance
suggests gradual strengthening will occur during that time. The
official forecast follows suit and calls for the depression to
become a tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the
shear is expected to abate while the system is over SSTs of 28-29C
and within a moist low- to mid-level environment. Those conditions
favor a faster rate of strengthening, and this is reflected in the
NHC forecast which shows the system becoming a hurricane in about 72
hours. The intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA
and IVCN consensus aids and is also supported by the global model
guidance which depicts more significant deepening in 2-3 days.
The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. The
cyclone is expected to continue westward for the next few days while
it is steered by a subtropical ridge that extends westward from
northern Mexico. After that time, the GFS and ECMWF models develop
a slight weakness in the ridge off the coast of Baja California
which allows the system to turn west-northwestward. The UKMET
depicts a stronger ridge and a more westward track than the
remainder of the guidance and its ensemble mean. As a result, the
official forecast is closer to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models,
and a bit north and east of the TVCE multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 11.4N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 11.8N 103.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 12.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 12.2N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 12.5N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 12.8N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 13.3N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Conventional satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated
with the low pressure area south of southern Mexico has continued
to increase and become better organized. An earlier SSMIS
microwave overpass revealed an improved low-level structure,
although most of the deep convection was located over the western
portion of the system due to moderate easterly shear. A couple of
scatterometer overpasses between 0330 and 0500 UTC showed that the
circulation had become much better defined and the system had peak
winds around 30 kt. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB
have also increased to T2.0, and based on all the above data,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seven-E. The
initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, in agreement with both the
ASCAT data and the subjective Dvorak estimates.
Moderate easterly shear is forecast to plague the system over the
next 24 to 48 hours, however most of the intensity guidance
suggests gradual strengthening will occur during that time. The
official forecast follows suit and calls for the depression to
become a tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the
shear is expected to abate while the system is over SSTs of 28-29C
and within a moist low- to mid-level environment. Those conditions
favor a faster rate of strengthening, and this is reflected in the
NHC forecast which shows the system becoming a hurricane in about 72
hours. The intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA
and IVCN consensus aids and is also supported by the global model
guidance which depicts more significant deepening in 2-3 days.
The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. The
cyclone is expected to continue westward for the next few days while
it is steered by a subtropical ridge that extends westward from
northern Mexico. After that time, the GFS and ECMWF models develop
a slight weakness in the ridge off the coast of Baja California
which allows the system to turn west-northwestward. The UKMET
depicts a stronger ridge and a more westward track than the
remainder of the guidance and its ensemble mean. As a result, the
official forecast is closer to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models,
and a bit north and east of the TVCE multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 11.4N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 11.8N 103.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 12.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 12.2N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 12.5N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 12.8N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 13.3N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 17.5N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression
TXPZ28 KNES 261207
TCSENP
A. 07E (NONAME)
B. 26/1130Z
C. 11.5N
D. 102.1W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...AN LLCC WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES UNDERNEATH
THE LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 1.5 AND PT
IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
26/1032Z 11.5N 102.1W SSMIS
TCSENP
A. 07E (NONAME)
B. 26/1130Z
C. 11.5N
D. 102.1W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...AN LLCC WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES UNDERNEATH
THE LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 1.5 AND PT
IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
26/1032Z 11.5N 102.1W SSMIS
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139504
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: SEVEN-E - Tropical Depression
Hello Frank.
EP, 07, 2022072612, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1020W, 35, 1004, TS
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139504
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANK...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 102.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 102.4 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Satellite imagery this morning depicts a sheared bursting pattern
associated with the tropical cyclone. An overnight convective burst
obscured the low-level circulation center, but first-light visible
imagery now shows the vortex mostly exposed east of the colder
convective cloud tops. This structure can also be seen from the last
couple SSMIS microwave passes near the center and is characteristic
of environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) diagnosed between 15-20
knots from the northeast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35-kt and T2.0/30-kt respectively, while the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was at T2.5/35-kt. The initial
intensity has been raised to 35-kt this advisory, upgrading the
tropical depression to tropical storm Frank.
Northeasterly VWS between 15-20 kt is expected to continue over the
next 48 hours, and will likely limit significant intensification in
the short-term as the shear promotes misalignment between the
low-level and mid-level centers. The latest intensity forecast only
shows slow intensification in the short-term. Afterwards, this shear
is expected to decrease, while the storm will remain over warm
sea-surface temperatures near 29C through 96 hours. However, the
current shear may also help broaden Frank's wind field as convection
is favored outside of the radius of maximum wind, as suggested by
the latest ECMWF run. These structural changes could limit more
robust intensification later in the forecast despite the more
favorable environment. For now, the latest NHC forecast still peaks
Frank as a category 1 hurricane towards end of the forecast period.
This forecast is on the lower end of the intensity guidance
envelope, close to the LGEM model, and is somewhat lower than the
consensus aids HCCA and IVCN.
The tropical storm is moving generally westward at 280/9-kt. The
track guidance is in fairly good agreement that this motion and
heading will continue as a mid-level ridge extends westward to the
north of Frank over the next 2-3 days. Towards the end of the
forecast, the ridge overhead will begin to gradually weaken, and
will likely allow a larger Frank to begin gaining more latitude. One
complicating factor in the track forecast is the possibility of some
weak binary interaction with another low-level circulation located
to Frank's northwest, where the net interaction may help impart a
bit more northerly heading to Frank's track between 72-96 hours. For
now, the track forecast continues to favor a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF forecast (GFEX) and is quite close to the previous forecast
track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 11.6N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 11.9N 104.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 12.2N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 12.6N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 12.9N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 13.6N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 15.0N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 17.5N 119.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANK...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 102.4W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 102.4 West. Frank is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022
Satellite imagery this morning depicts a sheared bursting pattern
associated with the tropical cyclone. An overnight convective burst
obscured the low-level circulation center, but first-light visible
imagery now shows the vortex mostly exposed east of the colder
convective cloud tops. This structure can also be seen from the last
couple SSMIS microwave passes near the center and is characteristic
of environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) diagnosed between 15-20
knots from the northeast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35-kt and T2.0/30-kt respectively, while the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was at T2.5/35-kt. The initial
intensity has been raised to 35-kt this advisory, upgrading the
tropical depression to tropical storm Frank.
Northeasterly VWS between 15-20 kt is expected to continue over the
next 48 hours, and will likely limit significant intensification in
the short-term as the shear promotes misalignment between the
low-level and mid-level centers. The latest intensity forecast only
shows slow intensification in the short-term. Afterwards, this shear
is expected to decrease, while the storm will remain over warm
sea-surface temperatures near 29C through 96 hours. However, the
current shear may also help broaden Frank's wind field as convection
is favored outside of the radius of maximum wind, as suggested by
the latest ECMWF run. These structural changes could limit more
robust intensification later in the forecast despite the more
favorable environment. For now, the latest NHC forecast still peaks
Frank as a category 1 hurricane towards end of the forecast period.
This forecast is on the lower end of the intensity guidance
envelope, close to the LGEM model, and is somewhat lower than the
consensus aids HCCA and IVCN.
The tropical storm is moving generally westward at 280/9-kt. The
track guidance is in fairly good agreement that this motion and
heading will continue as a mid-level ridge extends westward to the
north of Frank over the next 2-3 days. Towards the end of the
forecast, the ridge overhead will begin to gradually weaken, and
will likely allow a larger Frank to begin gaining more latitude. One
complicating factor in the track forecast is the possibility of some
weak binary interaction with another low-level circulation located
to Frank's northwest, where the net interaction may help impart a
bit more northerly heading to Frank's track between 72-96 hours. For
now, the track forecast continues to favor a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF forecast (GFEX) and is quite close to the previous forecast
track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 11.6N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 11.9N 104.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 12.1N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 12.2N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 12.6N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 12.9N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 13.6N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 15.0N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 17.5N 119.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm
Exposed this morning.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Help support Storm2K!
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
Sciencerocks
- Category 5
- Posts: 7294
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
-
InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm
They are being conservative after the Estelle bust. Justly so. However the system is still a sign of an active epac nearing august. Hmm.
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm
TXPZ28 KNES 261810
TCSENP
A. 07E (FRANK)
B. 26/1730Z
C. 11.6N
D. 102.8W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...A CIRCULARLY DEFINED LLCC LOCATED NEAR THE SMALL
OVERCAST. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWN
TCSENP
A. 07E (FRANK)
B. 26/1730Z
C. 11.6N
D. 102.8W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...A CIRCULARLY DEFINED LLCC LOCATED NEAR THE SMALL
OVERCAST. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS 2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWN
0 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm
`EP, 07, 2022072618, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1030W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 50, 60, 1012, 180, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011, `
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests