ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[jaguars_22]

So there is no way this is coming to Texas? But you better start building an ark according to euro!!!

[Iceresistance]

Big outflow boundary ejecting from Yucatán but there is a good circulation to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/0uC3k7H.gif

Also appears to be moving ENE

I see no evidence of this moving ENE… maybe WNW.. but ENE?

Yes on the WNW, I got the directional movement wrong

[Stormcenter]

I believe 99L will move further north than
anticipated by the NHC.

[jaguars_22]

Stormcenter I agree but from the looks of it something is tugging it almost due west? Models are showing it getting pulled that direction before moving north some??

[ChrisH-UK]

What has happened to 99L?



Here's an IR loop

[Stormcenter]

Well it’s over land. Let’s see what happens when
it gets in the Gulf.

What has happened to 99L?

https://i.imgur.com/mxB0T1m.png

Here's an IR loop

https://imgur.com/N92sgRC

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1560391428831838213

[lrak]

Not sure what meridional vorticity is, but IMO 99L looks like a go. My amateur eyes see a mid level for sure and a weak surface level spin about to exit into the BOC.

[Nimbus]

Last surface observation showed a 1010 mb surface pressure as this made landfall on the east side of the Yucatan.
That would blow up fairly quickly over the BOC with the light southern shear if its still 1010 mb.
There should be publicly available observations on the west coast or buoys if you can find them.
GFS and GEM models make this appear dissipated but I think there may still be a surface low headed into the BOC.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a tropical
wave located over southeastern Mexico that is expected to emerge
into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow morning. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves northwestward over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday or Saturday. However, by
Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over
northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Flynn/Papin

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2022081900, , BEST, 0, 182N, 910W, 20, 1009, DB

[wxman57]

Nope, not coming to Texas. Building ridge over TX by Saturday with strong northerly wind shear along the coast. Just another weak low. GFS has it inland in about 24 hours. EC more like Saturday afternoon. Only question is whether the NHC will call it a TD before it's inland (or after?).

[Stormcenter]

I hear what the “models” are saying about no Texas
for 99L but we know how reliable (wink wink) those models can be sometimes.

[wxman57]

I hear what the “models” are saying about no Texas
for 99L but we know how reliable (wink wink) those models can be sometimes.

When every single global and mesoscale model, including all ensemble members, is saying "no" to Texas, you kind of have to believe it's not coming to Texas.

[wx98]

The season has been so slow that I believe wishful thinking has infiltrated this thread.

[Stormcenter]

Yeah I must reluctantly agree…..I really just like
to get some rain out of this somehow.

I hear what the “models” are saying about no Texas
for 99L but we know how reliable (wink wink) those models can be sometimes.

When every single global and mesoscale model, including all ensemble members, is saying "no" to Texas, you kind of have to believe it's not coming to Texas.

[SoupBone]

Yeah I must reluctantly agree…..I really just like
to get some rain out of this somehow.

I hear what the “models” are saying about no Texas
for 99L but we know how reliable (wink wink) those models can be sometimes.

When every single global and mesoscale model, including all ensemble members, is saying "no" to Texas, you kind of have to believe it's not coming to Texas.

If you're in Texas, you likely will from the front that's passing through and stalling.

[Tailgater33]

Looking at low level WV imagery, elongated center is still on shore but will start exploding very soon. Might be classified with the. Recon tomorrow

[Cpv17]

Not sure how there’s a ridge building into Texas this weekend with all the rain chances. I see a stalled out front washing out leaving a weakness over the area.