ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/J06H5Mqh/98L.gif

That sure "looks" like it wants to run right into SA

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572225309465878531?s=20&t=wZST3CvhenOxhvetKd_Ziw

That is quite impressive to the point i could see a special TWO issued by the NHC.

[Blown Away]

Thinking Matthew would be a good analog. I do think this area may get a little farther W than Matthew.

[sma10]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1572225309465878531?s=20&t=wZST3CvhenOxhvetKd_Ziw

That is quite impressive to the point i could see a special TWO issued by the NHC.

Possibly. Given it's location, if it starts organizing they might debate a PTC

[MGC]

98L need to start gaining latitude to remove itself from the influence of South America. This is going to be one to watch for us along the Gulf Coast......MGC

[SFLcane]

Are those some 30kt wind barbs i see? Classification is not far away.

[MississippiWx]

Are those some 30kt wind barbs i see? Classification is not far away.

https://i.postimg.cc/63JYRJ6R/gfs.png

Has a good ways to go from a structural standpoint. Just a wave-for now.

[SFLcane]

Are those some 30kt wind barbs i see? Classification is not far away.

https://i.postimg.cc/63JYRJ6R/gfs.png

Has a good ways to go from a structural standpoint. Just a wave-for now.

That's not far from closing off its pretty close actually. I could easily see a potential TC advisory issued for the islands.

[Subtrop]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1055 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands, and on newly
formed Tropical Depression Eight, located over the north-central
Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Updated: Satellite data indicate that the tropical wave located
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has become better
organized this morning. Additional development is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Interests in the
Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system
as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands
beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Blown Away]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1055 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands, and on newly
formed Tropical Depression Eight, located over the north-central
Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Updated: Satellite data indicate that the tropical wave located
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has become better
organized this morning. Additional development is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Interests in the
Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system
as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands
beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Wow, not use to seeing this happen in between normal updates.

[aspen]

I think we need to address the possibility of a Bonnie repeat. 98L could be so far south that proximity to South America prevents development for days, and it doesn’t develop until it’s in the SW Caribbean. But it seems further ahead than Bonnie was at this location, so it might avoid similar troubles.

[MississippiWx]

NHC trying to raise awareness for the islands with this update. GFS may be on to something.

[galaxy401]

Boy the Atlantic really woke up the last couple days.

[Deshaunrob17]

Had a feeling 10% in 2 days was too low when I saw satellite presentation and stacked vorticity levels

[FLpanhandle91]

I'm heading out the door to get some early preparations done here in the Destin area. The entire Gulf is anomonously warm right now and with highs forecasted to be in the upper 80s to low 90s over the next 10 days, I don't think that'll change by the time 98L works its way into the Gulf. We've had one front push through so far this season and it didn't do much.

[skyline385]

Wow 40/70 from nothing in just 24 hours.


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[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricaneman]

Unless something unforeseen happens this will probably be Hermine and probably within the next 48 to 72 hrs based on presentation

[jfk08c]

Unless something unforeseen happens this will probably be Hermine and probably within the next 48 to 72 hrs based on presentation

What happened to Gaston?

[Jelmergraaff]

Unless something unforeseen happens this will probably be Hermine and probably within the next 48 to 72 hrs based on presentation

What happened to Gaston?

That's probably going to be for TD Eight (according to the NHC already in 12h).