ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like a tropical cyclone. That organization was incredible.

[underthwx]

Nearest radar is 200 miles SE, so it's looking at 20,000-25,000 feet above the surface. Jet to the north will be digging south by Thursday, pushing whatever is in the BoC south and into Mexico. There is always a natural vortex that sets up after a front moves into the Gulf. Air rushes south from Texas, down the east coast of Mexico and spins in the BoC. Tropical wave that was Julia helping convection.

Yes Xman, it's impressive how it flared up, but from what I have read about fronts digging south to the gulf, and based on your information, this system will unfortunately provide more headaches for our friends in Mexico, looks like Brownsville will see some rainfall perhaos?....This is an excerpt from NWS Brownsville 6:16 am discussion...."One of the main reasons for lower rain chances is the fact models
are now developing a slightly stronger surface low in the Bay of
Campeche. In fact, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives the
low a 40% chance of developing within the next 48 hours. As the
surface low consolidates, it will keep most of the moisture to our
south, thus shutting off the moisture transport to the north. This
is further exemplified by forecast precipitable water values (PWATs)
now forecast to remain between 1.5" to 1.8", which is down even more
than the previous runs which had PWATs nearing 2" along the coast.
That said, there remains a slight chance for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm along the coastal counties today with slightly better
rain chances over the Gulf waters."...what a difference a day makes, as far as Mother Nature is concerned...

[Iceresistance]

Well, that escalated really quickly.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/41634549.gif

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like a tropical cyclone. That organization was incredible.

I will only feel safe to give an opinion on 93L when the recon enters it. I also think this system is very similar to PTC 04L in August (atleast for now): When many people here thought it had a well-defined LLC and could already be a TS, the recon showed that it didn't have any circulation at least decent within that whole system.
We must be careful with these things too.

[underthwx]

Looks like a tropical cyclone. That organization was incredible.

I will only feel safe to give an opinion on 93L when the recon enters it. I also think this system is very similar to PTC 04L in August (atleast for now): When many people here thought it had a well-defined LLC and could already be a TS, the recon showed that it didn't have any circulation at least decent within that whole system.
We must be careful with these things too.

I agree that any system should be watched, it's the smart thing to do, I personally feel rest assured, that whatever comes from this, will not be an issue for the coastline of the US, based on numerous local and various NWS discussions up and down the Gulf coast from the tip of Florida, to the tip of Texas, no alarm bells are ringing, and as Xman has eluded to, no need for concern for the US coast, however, it appears that our neighbors in Mexico, may be seeing some effects unfortunately, let's hope it just washes out, enough already for this season....

[aspen]

Models are showing a pretty good UL environment until late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, when the front dives down into the southern Gulf. Perhaps we could see a rapid spin up in the next 36 hours.

[ChrisH-UK]

93L is bubbling away with good convection.

[GCANE]

BoC buoy is showing an increase in surface wind speed which is helping to drive more of the high CAPE air into the system.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

[PTrackerLA]

Hoping this system can enhance our rain chances tomorrow. I think we're at 35 days with no rain in south LA...

[Category5Kaiju]

93L is bubbling away with good convection.

https://i.imgur.com/L2qfNhP.png

I can tell you that that is better looking than PTC 4, right off the bat

[Aric Dunn]

almost certainly a TD/TS now. Models showing a weak trough/low getting trapped. and deeper TS would have a good shot of lifting N/NNE.

[zzzh]

Again, like I said in the 04L thread, IR can sometime be very misleading. We need recon/ascat to confirm if it's a TD or not.

[Aric Dunn]

[aspen]

Again, like I said in the 04L thread, IR can sometime be very misleading. We need recon/ascat to confirm if it's a TD or not.

That guarantees we’re never getting a good ASCAT pass of this. Hopefully recon heads out today.

[zzzh]

Per the microwave, the center is near the coast of Mexico. Convection is sheared to the north/northeast. I don't think it's a TD

[tropicwatch]

Again, like I said in the 04L thread, IR can sometime be very misleading. We need recon/ascat to confirm if it's a TD or not.

AF HH is on the way.

[Aric Dunn]

Per the microwave, the center is near the coast of Mexico. Convection is sheared to the north/northeast. I don't think it's a TD

there may be a small eddy down near the coast. That part of the coast often produces one daily. but the extent of the low level flow and expanse and depth of the convection and microwave indicated a likely LLC north away from the coast probably not perfectly under the MLC just yet but likely wont take long to get pulled under convection.

[underthwx]

Again, like I said in the 04L thread, IR can sometime be very misleading. We need recon/ascat to confirm if it's a TD or not.

That guarantees we’re never getting a good ASCAT pass of this. Hopefully recon heads out today.

Yeah Aspen, I'm thinkin recon flying out there is a good bet today, based on 93Ls appearance on satellite, gotta check out a system that looks like 93L does...we shall see tho...

[ElectricStorm]

I'm leaning towards no TD for now, although we're about to find out via recon soon. I think it will develop but not sure it's there yet, most of the convection seems displaced to the north.

[GCANE]

Looks like 93L's 700mb vort is breaking off from the vort south of the IoT
Same with 500mb vort.