EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

No eye yet but it will appear soon.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ21 KNES 291221
TCSENP

A. 01E (AGATHA)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 14.0N

D. 99.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...A LLCC THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN B RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0. THE
MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A RAPILDY STRENTHENING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/0712Z 14.0N 99.2W GMI
29/0838Z 13.9N 99.1W AMSR2


...HOSLEY

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 70kt.

EP, 01, 2022052912, , BEST, 0, 140N, 992W, 70, 985, HU

[ouragans]

I would not be surprised if Recon finds Agatha close to MH intensity. 1st invest, 1st cyclone, 1st NS, 1st hurricane, why not 1st MH?

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

Updated 12z BT up to 75kt.

EP, 01, 2022052912, , BEST, 0, 140N, 991W, 75, 981, HU

[aspen]

I would not be surprised if Recon finds Agatha close to MH intensity. 1st invest, 1st cyclone, 1st NS, 1st hurricane, why not 1st MH?

When does today’s recon flight arrive?

[kevin]

06z HWRF had Agatha at 991mb/59kt at this time and 06z HMON had it at 994mb/60kt. Clearly the BT 981mb/75kt (which is also in line with ADT) shows that Agatha is developing quicker than the hurricane models expected. If so I'm wondering whether the ceiling for Agatha could also be higher. Will be interesting to see what recon finds, they should arrive today at 1730z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM AGATHA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 29/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0101E AGATHA
C. 29/1300Z
D. 14.1N 98.5W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 30/1530Z
B. AFXXX 0201E AGATHA
C. 30/1100Z
D. 15.3N 97.1W
E. 30/1500Z TO 30/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[ouragans]

I would not be surprised if Recon finds Agatha close to MH intensity. 1st invest, 1st cyclone, 1st NS, 1st hurricane, why not 1st MH?

When does today’s recon flight arrive?

1730z. It was supposed to be in the air at 13z, but with that delay, updates will be for 21z advisory

Envoyé de mon SM-G950F en utilisant Tapatalk

[kevin]

IR loop of Agatha:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Wow...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at the zoomed out true color, it looks like this threw out a big gravity wave. Does anyone know what causes those to happen?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[ouragans]

 https://twitter.com/ben108472/status/1530909519068340224

[ElectricStorm]

I think there's some potential for this to become a major honestly. No eye yet but we'll probably get one sometime pretty soon. Doesn't seem to be moving much right now so it will definitely have enough time if it can take advantage.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think there's some potential for this to become a major honestly. No eye yet but we'll probably get one sometime pretty soon. Doesn't seem to be moving much right now so it will definitely have enough time if it can take advantage.

I have been expecting it to reach major status. Might even be the strongest EPAC storm of the year.

[skyline385]

06z HWRF had Agatha at 991mb/59kt at this time and 06z HMON had it at 994mb/60kt. Clearly the BT 981mb/75kt (which is also in line with ADT) shows that Agatha is developing quicker than the hurricane models expected. If so I'm wondering whether the ceiling for Agatha could also be higher. Will be interesting to see what recon finds, they should arrive today at 1730z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM AGATHA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 29/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0101E AGATHA
C. 29/1300Z
D. 14.1N 98.5W
E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 30/1530Z
B. AFXXX 0201E AGATHA
C. 30/1100Z
D. 15.3N 97.1W
E. 30/1500Z TO 30/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

HWRF initialised at 66 kts but had it temporarily weaken from shear, something NHC also talked about in the discussion. Same for HMON. If it doesn't weaken like the hurricane models predicted then yea the ceiling is going to be much higher.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2021]

 https://twitter.com/____crf/status/1530932331879481349

[skyline385]

Looks like it's trying to clear an eye with how the central tower is rotating

[Sciencerocks]