ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Excellent agreement between GFS & EC as far as track through day 6. However, GFS is 40mb lower than EC for central pressure. GFS just can't help itself.

I'd argue it's the other way around

[skyline385]

Excellent agreement between GFS & EC as far as track through day 6. However, GFS is 40mb lower than EC for central pressure. GFS just can't help itself.

The Euro has been much more bullish on this than the GFS.

Yea but it seems to be back tracking a bit

 https://twitter.com/wxpatel/status/1564354399786483713





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[Teban54]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1564367423008022528

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like there is convection actually firing over the center. If that continues it will aid development.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located about 875 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this
system is expected over the next several days and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is
forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at
5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward
Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Blown Away]

NHC 8pm update they did adjust the “X” SW.

[cycloneye]

Moving slowly west.

AL, 91, 2022083000, , BEST, 0, 147N, 478W, 30, 1007, DB

[Blown Away]

Latest. NHC says 14.7N/47.8W, not seeing much there anymore. Earlier there was an elongated COC from NE to SW. Low level clouds moving towards the SE blob and convection building.

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/gkJdTytY/goes16-ir-91-L-202208292305.gif [/url]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/25jP1CpC/goes16-vis-swir-91-L-202208292305.gif [/url]

Latest. NHC says 14.7N/47.8W, not seeing much there anymore. Earlier there was an elongated COC from NE to SW. Low level clouds moving towards the SE blob and convection building.

This could really mess up the models and forecasters if that is the case, since most predicted the NE portion would win out.

[DestinHurricane]

So are we team SW blob or team NE blob? I think the SW is taking over.
Go South Blob!

[Teban54]

So are we team SW blob or team NE blob? I think the SW is taking over.
Go South Blob!

This is giving me Isaias flashbacks.

[Hammy]

Show the satellite of this to someone without lat/lon or land for context and most would think it's somewhere in the Pacific

[Category5Kaiju]

Show the satellite of this to someone without lat/lon or land for context and most would think it's somewhere in the Pacific

The Atlantic is evolving into the WPAC

[ScottNAtlanta]

The more concentrated vorticity is nearer to the southern blob, but still stretched out

[IsabelaWeather]

Getting a lot more convection now, looks like DMAX is helping it a lot. Hopefully the new convection near the center of vorticity will help to tighten up the circ.

[ElectricStorm]

Still moving due west very slowly

91L INVEST 220830 0600 14.7N 48.0W ATL 25 1007

[Teban54]

Convection lighting up towards the center:

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.