CFLHurricane wrote:I don’t buy the sudden turn north next Tuesday the GFS, NAVGEM, and ICON are showing. I agree OTS is the likeliest outcome but the turn is just too tidy a solution.
I tend to agree for the following reason. If we were to take the Fiona's vertical structural integrity as a "status quo", and then magically place the storm just north of P.R. or the Rock, then sure it would likely begin to recurve. On the other hand though, if one were to project near-term weakening due to less favorable conditions exacerbated by GA land interaction then it would seem less reasonable that a vigorous MLC would still exist. A far more shallow system or even a remnant sharp wave would likely continue to progress generally towards the west or WNW. The EURO ensembles that SFLcane posted about an hour ago clearly shows members with stronger solutions recurving around 70-75W. The faster and weaker members depict a weaker and distinctly more westward track. I think Fiona will have weakened to a TW or even an open wave before reaching Puerto Rico's longitude. Further interaction with "the Rock" would then seem to prevent any opportunity for re-development at that time. That would suggest continued motion with the overall lower level flow at least unless regeneration a little further west were to then occur.
