ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

I would be amazed if recon finds anything that warrants an upgrade. This is just an open wave with limited storm activity for now.

However data from the recon may improve the computer model output .

[hipshot]

I would be amazed if recon finds anything that warrants an upgrade. This is just an open wave with limited storm activity for now.

However data from the recon may improve the computer model output .

I'm seeing replicated pages as "new pages" on this board. This happened in the past as well.
Is there something goofy going on with this website.

[Javlin]

I would be amazed if recon finds anything that warrants an upgrade. This is just an open wave with limited storm activity for now.

However data from the recon may improve the computer model output .

I'm seeing replicated pages as "new pages" on this board. This happened in the past as well.
Is there something goofy going on with this website.

Is sometimes mods cleaning out debris that has no content to the subject matter?

[cycloneye]

I would be amazed if recon finds anything that warrants an upgrade. This is just an open wave with limited storm activity for now.

However data from the recon may improve the computer model output .

I'm seeing replicated pages as "new pages" on this board. This happened in the past as well.
Is there something goofy going on with this website.

Is sometimes mods cleaning out debris that has no content to the subject matter?

Bingo to that.

[cycloneye]

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea have changed little in
organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the
eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over the
central Caribbean Sea this weekend. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the
Windward Islands tonight, and northern Venezuela, northeastern
Colombia, and the ABC island chain during the next couple of days.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently surveying
the system, and data from this mission will be assimilated into
tonight's forecast models.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Hurrilurker]

I must not have been paying close attention, I didn't know they would be sending recon in already. I'm also kind of surprised they didn't cancel. It just seems kind of soon.

I imagine there's still useful science to be had during early formation though. But yeah, doesn't look like much right now.

[tolakram]

I must not have been paying close attention, I didn't know they would be sending recon in already. I'm also kind of surprised they didn't cancel. It just seems kind of soon.

I imagine there's still useful science to be had during early formation though. But yeah, doesn't look like much right now.

Will be input into the models. Recon is always valuable.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2022092200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 628W, 30, 1007, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982022.dat

[Blown Away]

I must not have been paying close attention, I didn't know they would be sending recon in already. I'm also kind of surprised they didn't cancel. It just seems kind of soon.

I imagine there's still useful science to be had during early formation though. But yeah, doesn't look like much right now.

Will be input into the models. Recon is always valuable.

https://i.imgur.com/ZzhTZ0p.png

Usually the buildup of recon data in the next model run is anticlimactic. Models are not showing their biases for some reason which is very unusual and have huge spreads. I’m thinking recon will provide valuable data that will have big impacts on the next few model runs. JMHO

[ronjon]

Hard to believe this patch of clouds is predicted to be major hurricane in the GOM down the road. Looks like NHC overestimated percentage chances in 48 hrs. Looks like maybe 4-5 days this would develop and take off.

[Jr0d]

I imagine there's still useful science to be had during early formation though. But yeah, doesn't look like much right now.

Will be input into the models. Recon is always valuable.

https://i.imgur.com/ZzhTZ0p.png

Usually the buildup of recon data in the next model run is anticlimactic. Models are not showing their biases for some reason which is very unusual and have huge spreads. I’m thinking recon will provide valuable data that will have big impacts on the next few model runs. JMHO

At this point upper air data and increased weather baloon launches would be most beneficial... though its too early to fir extra weather balloons for a cluster of disorganized showers.b

[Poonwalker]

Hard to believe this patch of clouds is predicted to be major hurricane in the GOM down the road. Looks like NHC overestimated percentage chances in 48 hrs. Looks like maybe 4-5 days this would develop and take off.

North easterly shear doesn’t let up for 4 days. Sunday it might start getting its act together.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/1572768753192169475

[Aric Dunn]

It is too bad recon cant fly any closer to the coast. Although convection is confined mostly inland the llc(initial phase of it) is riding along the coast. slowly the shear is giving way to more divergent flow..... with that said, it will still be sheared but it wont stop it from developing and deepening slowly over the next few days.

You can see the overall circulation envelope has become more defined. However, the system is approaching the weakness from Fiona that will allow it to gain latitude overnight before the ridging builds back in. Once further over water it wont have much of an issue producing convection( displaced a little)

[AnnularCane]

Seems almost hard to believe anything can come from that. Right now it just looks like regular convection over South America.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger?

[hurricane2025]

 https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1572784100188254209

[sponger]

Going to be an exciting week. The intensity estimates are garbage as this will be an environment ripe for rapid intensification. Someone is getting hurt next week unless some shear or other unseen dampener can be found. I will be topping off my preps this week, not next.

[hcane27]

I am thinking the NHC drops it to 60-70 and this ultimately ends up in Nicaragua as a minimal system at best.

[Hammy]

Did the recon data go into the 00z or 06z model?

[NotSparta]

Did the recon data go into the 00z or 06z model?

Yes, the 00z cycle should have the recon data