ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

And to think just a few hours ago there were still heavy debates about whether there was a LLC

Going back even further, there was talk this would never get in the GoM.
Sorry, had to get that out of my system.
I'm fine now.

Someone pointed out this morning that it was a separate system not part of Julia but I think it was her mid level that made it into the Gulf

I posted back in the Julia thread, before she made landfall, that it'll open up to a 700mb wave and the tip will work itself into the BoC.
That is exactly what happened.

[GCANE]

Tons of lightning in that new tower

[boca]

I just hope it stays away from Florida.

[Iceresistance]

I just hope it stays away from Florida.

The Cold Front will keep it away and shove it west to southwest.

[Aric Dunn]

Def the beginnings of a proto eyewall. intensity forecast might want to be increased....

[aspen]

This reminds me of Marco, with a tiny core compared to a single massive band stretching from N to ESE. That could put a limit on Karl for some amount of time in the next 18-24 hours before shear kicks in.

[GCANE]

Def the beginnings of a proto eyewall. intensity forecast might want to be increased....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc22/ATL/14L.KARL/ssmis/91rgb/20221012.0055.f17.91pct91h91v.14L.KARL.35kts.1006mb.20.2N.94.8W.070pc.jpg

And track adjusted

[tropicwatch]

It does appear that the shear is retreating northward.

[Aric Dunn]

The center has made the connection that huge outer band. convection start pop again over llc.

[GCANE]

This will start getting a tug to the NE when surface pressure gets below 1000mb.
The lower the pressure goes, the more the tug to the NE.

[GCANE]

The center has made the connection that huge outer band. convection start pop again over llc.

The steroid IV just got jabbed into an artery

[cheezyWXguy]

The center has made the connection that huge outer band. convection start pop again over llc.

The steroid IV just got jabbed into an artery

Yep that band has been inching closer since it formed around sunset. If it were stationary and removed from the core, it would compete with core, but it’s not

[ThunderForce]

Here's the new 10 PM forecast discussion from the NHC:

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Bursts of deep convection have continued to develop this evening
near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Data from the
earlier reconnaissance mission into Karl showed that the circulation
was elongated along a south-southeast to north-northwest axis with
at least a couple of swirls that are likely rotating around the
mean center. The plane did not find flight-level or SFMR winds any
stronger than what was reported before the release of the previous
advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt,
which is slightly above the latest Dvorak satellite estimates. The
next reconnaissance mission into Karl is scheduled for Wednesday
morning.

Karl is moving north-northwestward or 330/5 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. After that time,
a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of
Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank
of that anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to turn southwestward
Wednesday night. This motion should then bring the cyclone near the
coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. The latest
dynamical model guidance depicts a sharper turn Wednesday night and
the official forecast was adjusted southward, and a bit faster than
the previous forecast at 36 h and beyond. This southward
adjustment required the government of Mexico to extend the Tropical
Storm Watch southward to Roca Partida. The new NHC track forecast
is close to the simple consensus aids and is also in good
agreement with the ECMWF model.

Karl is currently located within an environment of generally light
southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This
should allow some strengthening tonight or on Wednesday. After that
time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level
relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before
landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to
the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate in around
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 20.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 21.0N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 21.4N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 21.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 19.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z 19.1N 97.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like it’s gonna take some time to get that moisture into the core after all

[ElectricStorm]

Weird looking system. I think it will be tough for it to get above 45kts. That massive band to the east probably isn't helping. Hopefully the rainfall/flooding isn't too bad in Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

looks the llc may be getting pulled to that convection.. interesting.

[Teban54]

That massive band is really stripping away all the convection from the center.

[mantis83]

I just hope it stays away from Florida.

don't worry, the florida force field will keep it at bay!

[cheezyWXguy]

That massive band is really stripping away all the convection from the center.
https://i.postimg.cc/MTk30rhd/goes16-ir-14-L-202210120212.gif

Think it’s starting to recover now, slowly. New burst immediately south of the center

[Sciencerocks]