ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Teban54
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2061 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:41 am

kevin wrote:Recon fixes from the last few flights for reference. Over the last 5 hours Ian has deepened at an average rate of almost 2 mb/hr. Even if Ian just stays on its current intensification rate and doesn't RI even faster this could be enough to get it down to 940 mb before its Cuba landfall.

Sep 26
10:11z = 978.7 mb
07:18z = 983.6 mb
05:22z = 987.9 mb
00:53z = 988.5 mb

Sep 25
22:32z = 989.0 mb
10:45z = 999.4 mb

VDM has 983 mb with 6 kts wind, so it might not actually be at 978.7 yet. I recall that the NOAA planes have a low bias for pressure.
Strangely I don't see a center drop, but 3 SE eyewall drops.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2062 Postby Jr0d » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:48 am

Might be my location bias but it seems like Ian is going NNE to almost due north over the past hour or two.

For my impacts in Key West, where this makes land fall in Cuba is crucial. Our impact wll be minimal if Ian is west of the Isle of Youth. Also of concern is when it starts going NNE. The current forecast shows this happening after Cuba, obviously if it starts jogging eadt of North sooner that is bad news for everyone south of Tampa(and possibly good news for Tampa as landfall south of the bay will minimize the surge.

I have a lot to do today. Hopefully no surprises.

This time tomorrow morning is going to be interesting.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2063 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:56 am

One critical thing I notice is that timing will be critical for the Tampa Bay area. There may be a brief period on Thursday when Ian's forward speed slows to 4-5 mph. That occurs as Ian is about 30 miles offshore. If Ian moves more quickly, then it may move farther east, with landfall shifting just south of Tampa before the stall or slow-down. That's what the ICON is indicating. Those of you in Tampa want Ian to move more slowly so that it is blocked offshore and not allowed to move inland south of Tampa.

Checking recon, the plane found no hurricane force wind in the NW or SE quadrants.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2064 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:00 am

:eek:

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2065 Postby StPeteMike » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:03 am

weeniepatrol wrote::eek:

https://imgur.com/oVMk65s

That blowup on the SE quadrant is always a great indicator that Ian is about to RI.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2066 Postby skillz305 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:03 am

That was definitely a due North jog
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2067 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:04 am

aspen wrote:It’s remarkable how quickly Ian turned itself around. 24 hours ago, it was nothing more than a cluster of tiny spotty convection.


We have to let these things play out before jumping to conclusions. Just like the slow start to the season.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2068 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:04 am

We are now to point to watch any little trend in the short term that it could affect track of Ian as it nears the FL Peninsula over the next few days.
Weird how dry the SE quadrant is, looks better on satellite this morning than on radar.

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2069 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:07 am

NDG wrote:We are now to point to watch any little trend in the short term that it could affect track of Ian as it nears the FL Peninsula over the next few days.
Weird how dry the SE quadrant is, looks better on satellite this morning than on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/wpQ4dIS.gif


That might not be the best quality radar.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2070 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:07 am

Ian still looks like it’s struggling with some dry air intrusions. The convection is pulsing and mostly in two giant lobes around the center. That’s not a sign of a really healthy hurricane. It won’t take much for Ian to RI, but I expect only modest intensification until the CDO is established fully.
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ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2071 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:09 am

RI behavior in eyewall...


Little curls diving in to eyewall are a sign of rapid intensification...


This track is nerve-wrecking for us...Could easily still do a Charley...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2072 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:16 am

Morning! It’s definitely wobble-watching time here in northeastern Palm Beach County. Direct hit is highly unlikely, but any jogging/wobbling east of the forecast track now means worse weather later. I’m curious if the NHC will put TS watches up for Lake O and/or parts of the east coast later today.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2073 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:16 am

I just woke up, and WOW! I knew that Ian was going to do this! :eek:
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2074 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:17 am

Iceresistance wrote:I just woke up, and WOW! I knew that Ian was going to do this! :eek:

I just woke up because my dog wanted to go out...
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2075 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:19 am

Outer bands from hurricane Ivan are starting to bring rain and storms to the Florida keys

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2076 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:20 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I just woke up, and WOW! I knew that Ian was going to do this! :eek:

I just woke up because my dog wanted to go out...


Lol, I woke up earlier (Midnight, again at 4 AM, and at 5:30 AM) because my mind would not stop going crazy over Ian.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2077 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:20 am

16 hours and 30 mph later...

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2078 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:20 am

If there's such a thing as a 'perfect shrimp' this is it.

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2079 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:21 am

toad strangler wrote:
NDG wrote:We are now to point to watch any little trend in the short term that it could affect track of Ian as it nears the FL Peninsula over the next few days.
Weird how dry the SE quadrant is, looks better on satellite this morning than on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/wpQ4dIS.gif


That might not be the best quality radar.


It is good quality, Ian is very close to the radar site, just 50 miles, their airport is reporting fair weather. That's definitely a dry slot circulating really close to its eye.

Image
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2080 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:22 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:Morning! It’s definitely wobble-watching time here in northeastern Palm Beach County. Direct hit is highly unlikely, but any jogging/wobbling east of the forecast track now means worse weather later. I’m curious if the NHC will put TS watches up for Lake O and/or parts of the east coast later today.


They probably will at 5pm if there’s no west shifts today. My local forecast is showing TS conditions possible tonight through Thursday night. Probably won’t see sustained TS winds but it will be raining and squally all week on and off.
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