EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

[InfernoFlameCat]

The micro imagery passes have been pretty good. No one ever points it out when it is good, only when it’s bad lol. Anyhow, it’s nice getting quicker updates on the core of the storm.

[skyline385]

ADT with weakening flag ON

[KirbyDude25]

ADT with weakening flag ON

Not sure why, the storm's still strengthening, or at the very least maintaining. It sometimes seems like it just randomly applies that flag whenever it pleases (though there are situations where the flag makes sense)

[skyline385]

ADT with weakening flag ON

Not sure why, the storm's still strengthening, or at the very least maintaining. It sometimes seems like it just randomly applies that flag whenever it pleases (though there are situations where the flag makes sense)

Well the hurricane models predicted some temporary weakening and the microwave pass showed some degradation of the core so maybe ADT isn't completely wrong here

[KirbyDude25]

ADT with weakening flag ON

Not sure why, the storm's still strengthening, or at the very least maintaining. It sometimes seems like it just randomly applies that flag whenever it pleases (though there are situations where the flag makes sense)

Well the hurricane models predicting some temporary weakening and the microwave pass showed some degradation of the core so maybe ADT isn't completely wrong here

Ah, ok. How long is this weakening expected to last? Also, those models' initializations were weaker than the storm's current state and seemed to persist for something like 12-18 hours, which is not predicted by the NHC.

[skyline385]

Not sure why, the storm's still strengthening, or at the very least maintaining. It sometimes seems like it just randomly applies that flag whenever it pleases (though there are situations where the flag makes sense)

Well the hurricane models predicting some temporary weakening and the microwave pass showed some degradation of the core so maybe ADT isn't completely wrong here

Ah, ok. How long is this weakening expected to last? Also, those models' initializations were weaker than the storm's current state and seemed to persist for something like 12-18 hours, which is not predicted by the NHC.

HWRF had it fluctuating in intensity for 24-30 hours from initialization so they are most likely off as well.

[cycloneye]

For the record as it was not posted.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 99.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES



Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Agatha is rapidly intensifying. Recent conventional and microwave
satellite data have shown that the storm's convective structure has
significantly improved overnight and this morning. Overnight
microwave imagery indicated that a low to mid-level eye had formed
and more recent 1109 and 1206 UTC SSMIS overpasses revealed that
the inner-core structure has continued to improve. Subjective
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 77 and 65 kt,
respectively, while objective Dvorak estimates have increased to
near 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been set
at 75 kt.

The environment ahead of Agatha is expected to remain favorable
for further intensification. The hurricane is currently over SSTs
of around 30C, within low shear, and embedded in a moist low- to
mid-level atmosphere. As a result, continued steady to rapid
strengthening is predicted during the next 12-24 hours after which
time the hurricane's intensity is likely to level off due to a
possible eyewall cycle and/or interaction with land. The updated
NHC intensity forecast is notably higher than the previous advisory
due to the higher initial intensity and likelihood of continued
rapid strengthening today. The new intensity forecast brings Agatha
to near major hurricane strength before landfall in southern Mexico
and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. After landfall
Agatha should rapidly weaken as it moves over the mountains terrain
of southern Mexico.

Agatha has been meandering this morning, but the longer term initial
motion estimate is 345/2 kt. The hurricane should turn northward
this afternoon, and then begin to move on a faster northeastward
motion tonight and Monday as it becomes embedded in southwesterly
flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over northern Mexico and a
mid- to upper-level ridge to its east. On the foreast track, Agatha
is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico tonight, and
move onshore on Monday. The latest track guidance is once again
slower than before, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. The new NHC track remains near the middle of the
guidance envelope, close to the various consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large
and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha
makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.1N 99.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 98.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.9N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 16.6N 95.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 01/0000Z 17.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Astromanía]

Josh Morgerman is in Puerto Escondido

[skyline385]

Hurricane models still showing it struggling for the next 12-15 hours, atleast Recon is off and we will find out soon.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I don’t trust models. When predicting the intensity of a mature tropical cyclone, they have no idea whatsoever on what the storm is going to do.

[KirbyDude25]

Advisory 7A just released, 978mb/80kt

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
100 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 99.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 99.0 West. Agatha is drifting
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected later today, with a motion toward the
northeast continuing through Monday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico
later today and tonight and make landfall there on Monday.

Agatha has continued to strengthen. Maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours and Agatha
is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the
coast of southern Mexico on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning tonight or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the
center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

Mexican states of VeraCruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[skyline385]

TXPZ21 KNES 291221
TCSENP

A. 01E (AGATHA)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 14.0N

D. 99.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...A LLCC THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN B RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0. THE
MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A RAPILDY STRENTHENING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/0712Z 14.0N 99.2W GMI
29/0838Z 13.9N 99.1W AMSR2


...HOSLEY

Looks like they corrected this to T5.0 sometime ago

TXPZ21 KNES 291714
TCSENP
CCA

A. 01E (AGATHA)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 14.0N

D. 99.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI/AMSR2/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR PT, FT, CI, AND BASIS OF FT. A LLCC EMBEDDED
WITHIN B RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.0. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT
IS 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE 6-HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 5.0, ALLOWING THE
BREAKING OF ALL CONSTRAINTS. THE 1109Z AND THE 1206Z SSMIS MW IMAGES,
WHICH BOTH SHOWED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE, ALLOW FOR GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
THE CENTER POSITION AND THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/0712Z 14.0N 99.2W GMI
29/0838Z 13.9N 99.1W AMSR2
29/1109Z 14.0N 99.1W SSMIS


...HOSLEY

[CrazyC83]

I know that storms in that part of the EPAC tend to be quite unpredictable. Water is already quite warm, but the high terrain isn't far away. That terrain may be why the models struggle with it.

[cycloneye]

A. 01E (AGATHA)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 14.1N

D. 99.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...A LLCC THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN B RESULTS IN A DT OF
5.0. THE MET IS 4.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT
INTENSITY. THE PT IS 5.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN CENTER POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1206Z 14.0N 99.1W SSMIS
29/1340Z 14.0N 99.0W SSMIS


...HOSLEY

[skyline385]

I know that storms in that part of the EPAC tend to be quite unpredictable. Water is already quite warm, but the high terrain isn't far away. That terrain may be why the models struggle with it.

That could be possible but both Hurricane models have it RI'in tomorrow when its closer to land...

[Astromanía]

I know that storms in that part of the EPAC tend to be quite unpredictable. Water is already quite warm, but the high terrain isn't far away. That terrain may be why the models struggle with it.

That high terrain didn't prevent hurricane Rick to make landfall at peak intensity last season as a category 2 in Guerrero, we know land interaction is a factor that derives weakening but it's not always the case, we need to watch this closely

[KirbyDude25]

I know that storms in that part of the EPAC tend to be quite unpredictable. Water is already quite warm, but the high terrain isn't far away. That terrain may be why the models struggle with it.

That high terrain didn't prevent hurricane Rick to make landfall at peak intensity last season as a category 2 in Guerrero, we know land interaction is a factor that derives weakening but it's not always the case, we need to watch this closely

And besides, it's still over 150 miles away from land. Usually when land interaction is mentioned, it's either right under the center or very close to it

[cycloneye]

18z BT at 90KT Will plane find more than 90KT?

EP, 01, 2022052918, , BEST, 0, 142N, 990W, 90, 970, HU

[Yellow Evan]

They’ll find less than 90 knots if I had to guess. Would have kept this at Category 1 for continuity.

[KirbyDude25]

They’ll find less than 90 knots if I had to guess. Would have kept this at Category 1 for continuity.

The NHC isn't upgrading it (still at 80 knots for Advisory 7A). I agree with you that it's a good call not to edit the advisory. We'll see what the recon gets and what call the NHC makes at 5 PM Eastern