ATL: IAN - Models

[FLpanhandle91]

Landfall right over Mexico Beach lesss than 4 years after Michael.

[Stormcenter]

Canadian and ICON both put 98L in the central
GOM this run.

[sma10]

West shift this run.

It’s actually an east shift from Destin on the 18z to Panama City this run

Yes bit of an eastward shift in terms of landfall. But still so early ... the GEFS is madness with an enormous spread out at 5 days

[skyline385]

Such an insane amount of shear in the Gulf close to its landfall

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1572447747235803137

[cheezyWXguy]

Its getting eroded again, look at all the precipitation being pulled out through Florida. Its going to weaken before landfall again.

https://i.imgur.com/ofToPZD.png

What is the mechanism imparting shear on it as it approaches the northern gulf? I don’t see another trough, it looks like largely zonal flow to me.

Not sure myself but I think the precipitation is being pulled by the front created by this trough digging in

https://i.imgur.com/eBz84pN.png

That must be it, 2m temps in the SE US look fairly cool. Hopefully this remains the case, but I worry about trusting pattern depictions 10 days out. Honestly I’m concerned either way, there really isn’t a good scenario here, outside of a recurve east of the US, which doesn’t seem likely. Wherever this ends up, the surge potential is the star of the show, regardless of what the ultimate max winds are at landfall

[ConvergenceZone]

slightly off topic, but where is the one storm 2k member who was always posting model runs. I think it name started with an "A" but I can't be sure...But he was infamous for posting model runs.... I don't think I've seen him at all this season.

[skyline385]

What is the mechanism imparting shear on it as it approaches the northern gulf? I don’t see another trough, it looks like largely zonal flow to me.

Not sure myself but I think the precipitation is being pulled by the front created by this trough digging in

https://i.imgur.com/eBz84pN.png

That must be it, 2m temps in the SE US look fairly cool. Hopefully this remains the case, but I worry about trusting pattern depictions 10 days out. Honestly I’m concerned either way, there really isn’t a good scenario here, outside of a recurve east of the US, which doesn’t seem likely. Wherever this ends up, the surge potential is the star of the show, regardless of what the ultimate max winds are at landfall

Yea the surge from in would be pretty devastating. You can kinda see the impact its large size has here (the waves obviously wont translate to the same height inland)

[redingtonbeach]

Yea the surge from in would be pretty devastating. You can kinda see the impact its large size has here (the waves obviously wont translate to the same height inland)

https://i.imgur.com/n8og88z.png

Skyline, where did you pull that image from at TropicalTidbits. Dang if I can find the model. Tku!

[Cpv17]

slightly off topic, but where is the one storm 2k member who was always posting model runs. I think it name started with an "A" but I can't be sure...But he was infamous for posting model runs.... I don't think I've seen him at all this season.

Aric Dunn? Not sure where he went. Probably not who you’re talking about though.

[DestinHurricane]

slightly off topic, but where is the one storm 2k member who was always posting model runs. I think it name started with an "A" but I can't be sure...But he was infamous for posting model runs.... I don't think I've seen him at all this season.

Aric Dunn? Not sure where he went. Probably not who you’re talking about though.

Aric is very active in the discord

[AtlanticWind]

Euro further north at 120 hours, near Jamaica

[AtlanticWind]

Possibly , S Florida hit on this run.....

Not sure though

[Cpv17]

Possibly , S Florida hit on this run.....

Not sure though

Possibly a Charley path.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro with a S Fla strike going right across state

[hurricaneCW]

Possibly , S Florida hit on this run.....

Not sure though

Possibly a Charley path.

I think that's more likely given widespread troughiness over eastern US. How quickly it organizes will be key as well.

[somethingfunny]

00z ICON over the western tip of Cuba.

[Jelmergraaff]

GFS is going for it again, passing right in between Cuba and the Yucatan.

[SFLcane]

Euro going across South Florida now.

[JtSmarts]

Euro also hooks back into NC at the end of the run.