ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I bet we will see between 100 and 120 MPH by later tonight...It's looking better and better

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/EzlEEYx.gif

Close brush for Isla of Youth...

I know its IR eye candy but that doesn't look to have much of a W component at this time.

Yah it looks NNW at best

[bohai]

So if we get a stall offshore Tampa area due to the trough not picking it up and leaving it sitting there with no steering, what are successive days showing? I remember Elena (was living in Mobile at the time) was making a beeline towards Mobile, turned and headed toward Cedar Kay FL, then reversed and paralleled the Gulf Coast and finally made landfall on the Mississippi Gulf coast.

[SconnieCane]

Question; given how sensitive the impacts will be to slight E/W variations in track...did the passage of N. Gulf storms like Michael or Ivan cause any piling of water/surge into Tampa Bay just from onshore flow on their right side, or were they far enough away?

[psyclone]

Question; given how sensitive the impacts will be to slight E/W variations in track...did the passage of N. Gulf storms like Michael or Ivan cause any piling of water/surge into Tampa Bay just from onshore flow on their right side, or were they far enough away?

They both produced high tides that caused minor coastal flooding. Ivan flooded the sponge docks in tarpon springs. Michael produced probably 3' or so of water rise in upper tampa bay. Tropical storm ETA produced more than both of those far away biggies. it is easy to get water to rise around here

[skillz305]

Anyone with knowledge have any implications of Ian already turning NNW? Is this relative to maybe Ian being more easterly?

[blueskies]

Hello to stpetemike and everyone at Storm2k. I would really appreciate some updated advice on evacuating from St Petersburg.

My original plan was to evacuate to a hotel in a part of St Petersburg that is in a non-evacuation zone based on Pinellas county maps.

I am worried if that will be sufficient based on current storm predictions. Plan B is to go to Plant City. Just called to confirm reservation
(Hampton Inn on Thonotonassa Rd.) and front desk read a statement that in event city issues evacuation order, hotel will close.

Also was able to get a reservation, but just for one night, at another Hotel (IHG) in Plant City and this front desk said that, "This is central Florida and we never evacuate."

Will a non-evacuation zone in St Petersburg be safe if we can get above first floor? (5 story hotel).

I didn't think Plant City was near water. Is there really a likelihood of an evacuation order there?

Would north Tampa be safer even in a small one story house?

I have an older relative in bad health, hard to go very far.

Thank you for any advice

[GCANE]

Looks like last recon fix has Ian 7 miles east of forecast track.
Watching if just a wobble or beginning of a trend.

[TallyTracker]

Noticing a lot of traffic jams starting to pile up in the Tampa area particularly on I-4 eastbound.

[Nimbus]

Anyone with knowledge have any implications of Ian already turning NNW? Is this relative to maybe Ian being more easterly?

Looked like it is approaching the -83W longitude near 20N as forecast.
Isle of youth is near -83W and if it follows the 12Z Euro track it may stay west of -83 in the gulf.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Noticing a lot of traffic jams starting to pile up in the Tampa area particularly on I-4 eastbound.

I can promise you that's not related to the hurricane. I-4 east near Celebration always clogs every single day.

[skyline385]

I don’t remember seeing the last VDM fix shared here but it’s C11 now so the large eye has melded with the inner one.




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[Iceresistance]

Noticing a lot of traffic jams starting to pile up in the Tampa area particularly on I-4 eastbound.

I can promise you that's not related to the hurricane. I-4 east near Celebration always clogs every single day.

What is unusual is that it's occurring at 2 PM EDT instead of the normal rush hour times

[TallyTracker]

Hello to stpetemike and everyone at Storm2k. I would really appreciate some updated advice on evacuating from St Petersburg.

My original plan was to evacuate to a hotel in a part of St Petersburg that is in a non-evacuation zone based on Pinellas county maps.

I am worried if that will be sufficient based on current storm predictions. Plan B is to go to Plant City. Just called to confirm reservation
(Hampton Inn on Thonotonassa Rd.) and front desk read a statement that in event city issues evacuation order, hotel will close.

Also was able to get a reservation, but just for one night, at another Hotel (IHG) in Plant City and this front desk said that, "This is central Florida and we never evacuate."

Will a non-evacuation zone in St Petersburg be safe if we can get above first floor? (5 story hotel).

I didn't think Plant City was near water. Is there really a likelihood of an evacuation order there?

Would north Tampa be safer even in a small one story house?

I have an older relative in bad health, hard to go very far.

Thank you for any advice

I lived in Plant City for 10 years (Branch Forbes exit). There’s no risk of storm surge there. Wind can be a problem from a tree standpoint. Fresh water flooding may be an issue in some low areas. I know a few flooded during Irma. The Hampton Inn at Thonotosassa Rd should be good from a flooding standpoint but you may lose power.

Not a pro, but with the surge forecasts, I’d plan to at least get out of Pinellas County until the water subsided. You don’t want to be stuck there if the surge is high and damages most of the roads in and out of the county. Power will likely be out for a while too.

[Nimbus]

Noticing a lot of traffic jams starting to pile up in the Tampa area particularly on I-4 eastbound.

Running out of gas at some of the stations as well, I was lucky to find generator fuel this morning.
But Walmart had Loctite PL to glue down the shingles with broken glue strips so that is done.
Have plywood and spring locks to board up tomorrow but would prefer to just do two sides of the house if Ian stays offshore.

[TallyTracker]

Noticing a lot of traffic jams starting to pile up in the Tampa area particularly on I-4 eastbound.

I can promise you that's not related to the hurricane. I-4 east near Celebration always clogs every single day.

Yeah that looked normal. It’s the red areas near I-75 and the yellow slow downs beginning near Plant City. That’s not normal for a Monday afternoon before rush hour.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Noticing a lot of traffic jams starting to pile up in the Tampa area particularly on I-4 eastbound.

I can promise you that's not related to the hurricane. I-4 east near Celebration always clogs every single day.

What is unusual is that it's occurring at 2 PM EDT instead of the normal rush hour times

Oh no, I promise you that is very normal any time of day. I've been stuck at that spot near I-4 even at 3am once.

Noticing a lot of traffic jams starting to pile up in the Tampa area particularly on I-4 eastbound.

I can promise you that's not related to the hurricane. I-4 east near Celebration always clogs every single day.

Yeah that looked normal. It’s the red areas near I-75 and the yellow slow downs beginning near Plant City. That’s not normal for a Monday afternoon before rush hour.

I have lived in Plant City for nearly 15 years and I can also promise you that is normal for any time of day. I've seen it even on Sunday afternoons. People drive like madmen there.

[caneman]

Noticing a lot of traffic jams starting to pile up in the Tampa area particularly on I-4 eastbound.

I can promise you that's not related to the hurricane. I-4 east near Celebration always clogs every single day.

I can promise you some of it is. I know of people evacuating already. And there is already a mandatory level 1 Evac in Tampa now and recommended level 2

[StormPyrate]

Pinellas mandatory evac for Zone A at 6, tomorrow morning for zones B and C

[caneman]

Noticing a lot of traffic jams starting to pile up in the Tampa area particularly on I-4 eastbound.

I can promise you that's not related to the hurricane. I-4 east near Celebration always clogs every single day.

Yeah that looked normal. It’s the red areas near I-75 and the yellow slow downs beginning near Plant City. That’s not normal for a Monday afternoon before rush hour.

You are correct and there are some mandatory evacs already. I know of some people who are leaving now.