ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

FYI=Two planes are flying now. Who volunteers to post the data in the recon thread?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1574489876334100489

[hipshot]

radar and sat def show WNW to NW short term motion while it has been deepening( normal cyclonic loops). NW/NNW show resume though. looks like it will pass west of the forecast point and probably just go over the very tip of Cuba. Pretty flat and narrow. wont cause much of any issues for it.

If it does pass over the very western tip of Cuba or through the straits, it seems like it is going to take longer to make the turn to the northeast and
on in to mid-Florida. There seems like a possibility that IAN could just truck on north to the mid-gulf coast or maybe somewhat east of there. Any
chance of that happening? I'm just a lurker thinking out loud.

[GCANE]

It may be approaching strengthening shear but 200mb vorticity is well in the clear.
Likely will tilt Ian but not punch it flat.
High CAPE values in the GoM could be a factor in allowing Ian to push shear out of its path especially if some strong, long duration towers fire off.

[Texashawk]

I gotta say, that’s the finest Cat 1 storm I’ve ever seen. Presents like a Cat 3+ on visible!

[wxman57]

Hey i’m 50 miles north of tampa near coast with mandatory evac effective 9am tomorrow. does that mean i have to leave by 9 or can i wait longer as long as it’s not too late. like afternoon sometime. i’m not sure how the law applies

You won't see much weather there until during the day on Thursday. Squalls could arrive Wednesday night. You can leave whenever you want.

[cycloneye]

Very organized and ready to do the RI.

[SouthernBreeze]

I won’t wait till it’s too late. my friend telling me i need to leave at 9 and there will be no weather yet so i’m like wait a few hours. i will obey the law but not sure if i hv to leave at 9

Technically, there is no "law". I rode out Michael in a mandatory evacuation zone in Zone A.

Doesn't mandatory essentially mean you can't return once you've left/roads will be closed at a certain point?

Most likely you won't get to come back to your home until Govt officials let you come back. Why I've never evacuated

[Blown Away]

Going to be real close E eyewall brush for Island of Youth.
@20.3N/83.3W NNW?

[Homie J]

I gotta say, that’s the finest Cat 1 storm I’ve ever seen. Presents like a Cat 3+ on visible!

Not sure any Cat 3+ doesn't have at least somewhat clear eye. Doesn't have much if any of an eye yet on visible.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Starting to look like there are concentric circles near the center. I think when the eye does clear, it will be a bit larger than people are expecting.

[jdjaguar]

Just looked at precipitation rates and it appears NE Florida is in for 10-15 inches.

[TallyTracker]

radar and sat def show WNW to NW short term motion while it has been deepening( normal cyclonic loops). NW/NNW show resume though. looks like it will pass west of the forecast point and probably just go over the very tip of Cuba. Pretty flat and narrow. wont cause much of any issues for it.

If it does pass over the very western tip of Cuba or through the straits, it seems like it is going to take longer to make the turn to the northeast and
on in to mid-Florida. There seems like a possibility that IAN could just truck on north to the mid-gulf coast or maybe somewhat east of there. Any
chance of that happening? I'm just a lurker thinking out loud.

Yes that is the secondary path that Ian may take. Seems like the models are starting to agree more on a path toward Tampa, but many of the models ensembles still take Ian on a more direct route toward the FL Panhandle.

[ObsessedMiami]

Pretty good bands of downpours moving across SFL today. Flood watch already

[Iceresistance]

ADT now up to T#4.4

In line with the NHC intensity estimate on the Advisory.

[GCANE]

Line of hot towers firing now. Looks to be the strongest so far.

[galaxy401]

Category 2 now. Special advisory was just posted.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow! Cat 2.

[Jelmergraaff]

Wow! Cat 2.

100 mph and 972 mb as of 5 PM EDT.

[Category5Kaiju]

Strengthening quite well as expected. Wouldn't be surprised to see Cat 3 in the later evening hours and by tomorrow morning possibly low end Cat 4.