EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

[kevin]

Convection attempting to wrap around the eye. The eye hasn't cleared yet on visible or IR though. Kinda difficult to estimate its current intensity. I wouldn't be surprised if recon finds 90-95kt winds similar to BT, but at the same time I also wouldn't be shocked if winds are as low as 75 kt. It reminds me a bit of Delta, which also looked like a mess while actually being a formidable hurricane.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I recognize the storm shape. I’m expecting a big burst of convection on the east side that will wrap around the north and then the eye will come out. This sounds crazy but that’s what I think is going to happen shortly. I have seen other storms look like that such as Sam before forming an eye. Sam did this during an ERC though while this has yet to have one. My reasoning behind this is Agatha will attempt to close off the eyewall and this is how they generally accomplish it, a big burst of convection over the weak spot(eastern eyewall) that levels out and then the eye clears out.

[Yellow Evan]

They’ll find less than 90 knots if I had to guess. Would have kept this at Category 1 for continuity.

The NHC isn't upgrading it (still at 80 knots for Advisory 7A). I agree with you that it's a good call not to edit the advisory. We'll see what the recon gets and what call the NHC makes at 5 PM Eastern

ATCF has this at 90 knots though.

[Yellow Evan]

Okay this is going places.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Also, there is some decent mid level shear impacting the system. I mean it really could limit the storm if it doesnt decrease soon. It is north westerly shear.

[skyline385]

I recognize the storm shape. I’m expecting a big burst of convection on the east side that will wrap around the north and then the eye will come out. This sounds crazy but that’s what I think is going to happen shortly. I have seen other storms look like that such as Sam before forming an eye. Sam did this during an ERC though while this has yet to have one. My reasoning behind this is Agatha will attempt to close off the eyewall and this is how they generally accomplish it, a big burst of convection over the weak spot(eastern eyewall) that levels out and then the eye clears out.

Agree with you, this structure kinda reminds me of storms like Irma and Maria. All the convection blob is near the CDO and there aren't any long bands holding it back.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a pinhole eye? We will find out very soon with Recon.

[zzh]

pinhole eye

[DorkyMcDorkface]

That is one small core:

[skyline385]

Maybe a pinhole eye? We will find out very soon with Recon.

https://i.imgur.com/9rhwmCy.jpg

Recon might get very lucky with this one if there is a pinhole eye forming

[cycloneye]

Plane has reached the Pacific so very shortly we will know what Agatha has.

[skyline385]

Recon just dropped to 3167m

[InfernoFlameCat]

This could be anywhere from 80 knots to 110 knots. Impossible to tell with such a small core. The recon is coming at a great time.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Eye is clearing out. Wicked fast hot towers are rotating around it.

[kevin]

I'm not the first one to mention it, but this is giving me pinhole vibes. Difficult to tell though until the eye has fully cleared. I'm very interested to see what recon finds, they might arrive at precisely the right moment.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Eye clearing out on visible now! WOW! We could see a monster forming!

[skyline385]

Eye is clearing out. Wicked fast hot towers are rotating around it.

If that is indeed the eye, it is for sure looking like a pinhole one. Its been a while since we had this perfect of a recon timing...

[KirbyDude25]

Eye is clearing out. Wicked fast hot towers are rotating around it.

If that is indeed the eye, it is for sure looking like a pinhole one. Its been a while since we had this perfect of a recon timing...

If that's the case, seems like the delay was actually kind of useful

[Yellow Evan]

This is definitely a pinhole lmao. Now I suspect it will be an unstable pinhole that ERC’s before reaching full intensity but nevertheless a pinhole.

[skyline385]

Recon transmitting SFMR now