ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/4DdYvao.png

While there seems to be confidence that intensification is likely as it reaches the bahamas there seems to be less confidence in where Nicole makes landfall. It would be a good time at some point today to check the ICON model since it’s my opinion it is very accurate on where Nicole will make landfall.

Yes, please someone explain where to find the ICON model as I think I’m trusting it more than most at this point. Not to say I won’t look at others, but I’m just doing my own little “science experiment” with it, if you will.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 10706&fh=6

[eastcoastFL]

Nicole is located between the northern edge of the cutoff UL Low and the bottom of the UL trough.
This places Nicole in a minimum 355K PV.
Of all the places to be, this is the best spot for intensification.

I’m seeing 25-30 kts of shear and an abundance of dry air over Florida and the western Bahamas. Will this inhibit strengthening as it approaches the peninsula or do we expect the area to become more conducive on approach?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1589590764396638210

[GCANE]

Watching models carefully on the interaction of a low developing over the Great Lakes end of the week and Nicole running up the coast.
Phasing of the two would be a very bad thing.

[GCANE]

Nicole is located between the northern edge of the cutoff UL Low and the bottom of the UL trough.
This places Nicole in a minimum 355K PV.
Of all the places to be, this is the best spot for intensification.

I’m seeing 25-30 kts of shear and an abundance of dry air over Florida and the western Bahamas. Will this inhibit strengthening as it approaches the peninsula or do we expect the area to become more conducive on approach?

On the 10th, models have 20+ knts of shear
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 061800.png

Of course, that inhibits intensification of a TC. Also, no really solid anti-cyclone is forecast to be over Nicole on approach.
However, it'll be in the Gulf Stream and any large towers that may fire would kick shear out of the way.
A more higher shear environment would lead to a higher chance of tornadoes.
A particularly important point is that GFS is forecasting Nicole entraining high CAPE air on approach with the NW flank being particularly vulnerable for tornadoes.
TS's and STS's many times can be tornado generators.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1589597412632711170

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AlanSevere/status/1589598045624471553

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 17, 2022110712, , BEST, 0, 259N, 691W, 40, 1002, SS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal172022.dat

[Coolcruiseman]

The biggest impacts whether Nicole becomes a hurricane or not will be north of the center of Nicole, widespread 20'+ foot waves will be a big problem for many coastal communities especially in Volusia County.

https://i.imgur.com/lTpkczA.png

That has been highlighted for the last few days for Brevard County as well by NWS Melbourne.

[Blown Away]

Looks like an NW to SE elongated COC…

[NDG]

Nicole is located between the northern edge of the cutoff UL Low and the bottom of the UL trough.
This places Nicole in a minimum 355K PV.
Of all the places to be, this is the best spot for intensification.

I’m seeing 25-30 kts of shear and an abundance of dry air over Florida and the western Bahamas. Will this inhibit strengthening as it approaches the peninsula or do we expect the area to become more conducive on approach?

Models are persistent in that it will become more conducive for strengthening over the NW Bahamas into southern FL.

[HurricaneBelle]

Definitely becoming more of a concern on the west coast - I was without power for two days in Pinellas away from the coast despite Ian only sideswiping us. NHC's wind probabilities have Tampa at 43% for TS winds, the highest for any non-East coast location.

[GCANE]

Lots of overshooting tops bubbling away right where recon tags it at 25.92N 69.13W
Looks like it found its sweet spot between the UL cutoff low and UL trough.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1589606651430330368

[Nimbus]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Px9wWzbF/goes16-vis-swir-17-L-202211071137.gif [/url]

Looks like an NW to SE elongated COC…

Maybe NHC will answer my question from earlier about a southern warm core center at 11AM.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneCity/status/1589615151161876480

[GCANE]

Latest GFS shows an extreme, off-the-scale, large area of vorticity on approach to the east FL coast.
Area north of the CoC maybe particularly vulnerable to tornadoes due to frictional effects of the land (boundary layer) to the north quad's winds.

[skillz305]

Vero Beach, FL here. Work (boat production) hasn’t said a peep about this storm. Waiting to see if we have to work Wednesday or Thursday (usually off Fridays since we work 10 hour days). So much confusion at work as of now. But it’s coming, right? Even if a moderate TS.

[robbielyn]

Vero Beach, FL here. Work (boat production) hasn’t said a peep about this storm. Waiting to see if we have to work Wednesday or Thursday (usually off Fridays since we work 10 hour days). So much confusion at work as of now. But it’s coming, right? Even if a moderate TS.

They may send u hm early but if it’s not a hurricane you probably will still hv to come in depending on how bad it is. if u lose electricity then i’m sure ur going to be sent home