ATL: NICOLE - Models

[tolakram]

18Z Euro running

[cane5]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fRmSzfHT/hwrf-mslp-wind-17-L-fh0-93.gif [/url]

18z HWRF… 88 mph at landfall near WPB…

That would put me right in the northern eye wall. The late night runs will be interesting, I wonder how much the models change when this thing makes it’s transition to tropical. Or if they change at all?

I agree your whistling in the dark until we get a closed circulation and it has made that Southwest turn. We will know a lot more tommorrow but that’s the fun of this we don’t know everything….yet

[tolakram]

Euro humidity

[tolakram]

[eastcoastFL]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fRmSzfHT/hwrf-mslp-wind-17-L-fh0-93.gif [/url]

18z HWRF… 88 mph at landfall near WPB…

That would put me right in the northern eye wall. The late night runs will be interesting, I wonder how much the models change when this thing makes it’s transition to tropical. Or if they change at all?

I agree your whistling in the dark until we get a closed circulation and it has made that Southwest turn. We will know a lot more tommorrow but that’s the fun of this we don’t know everything….yet

I guess there are not a lot of November storms to compare to and even less since models entered the game. Is there any analog where we can look and see how models did with a storm before it transitioned from subtropical to tropical. That would be pretty cool data to look at if it exists.

[tolakram]

Further south

[sponger]

Euro still weak into Northern Palm Peach.

[N2FSU]

0z


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[tolakram]

[eastcoastFL]

Intensity guidance. Most stay as a high end TS.

[AutoPenalti]

Did guidance shift north? I’m literally squinting and can’t tell.

[tolakram]

Don't look to Euro for intensity, that's not its strong point.

...IAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


EURO 24 hours out


Euro 48 hours out


No two storms are alike, but since these are fresh here's a reminder of the Euro intensity errors. This is why the HWRF always gets intensity closer than the globals, even though it's still bad.

[Blown Away]

Euro still weak into Northern Palm Peach.

Just an example, Lisa 85 mph, 990 mb.

Euro says Nicole 993 mb at WPB.

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

0zhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221108/dea8a38bf10b85d1f3a112941db7c8da.jpg


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18z GFS, EURO, and HWRF all shift S into PBC and the 00z Early TVCN shifts N to Stuart?? Maybe NHC moving GFS & Euro to the bench for Ukmet & Icon??

[gatorcane]

0zhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221108/dea8a38bf10b85d1f3a112941db7c8da.jpg


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18z GFS, EURO, and HWRF all shift S into PBC and the 00z Early TVCN shifts N to Stuart?? Maybe NHC moving GFS & Euro to the bench for Ukmet & Icon??

Doesn’t make sense. Typically a blend of the GFS and Euro is usually a good bet and they are way south of Stuart.

[DESTRUCTION5]

0zhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221108/dea8a38bf10b85d1f3a112941db7c8da.jpg

I don't think the 18z model suite is ingested into the 00z tcvn. Think it's one run behind.

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18z GFS, EURO, and HWRF all shift S into PBC and the 00z Early TVCN shifts N to Stuart?? Maybe NHC moving GFS & Euro to the bench for Ukmet & Icon??

Doesn’t make sense. Typically a blend of the GFS and Euro is usually a good bet and they are way south of Stuart.

[AxaltaRacing24]

0zhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221108/dea8a38bf10b85d1f3a112941db7c8da.jpg


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18z GFS, EURO, and HWRF all shift S into PBC and the 00z Early TVCN shifts N to Stuart?? Maybe NHC moving GFS & Euro to the bench for Ukmet & Icon??

Doesn’t make sense. Typically a blend of the GFS and Euro is usually a good bet and they are way south of Stuart.

The TVCN is being skewed by the “weaker” models taking it more north. Not saying they’ll definitely be wrong, but that’s the current situation.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM Palm Beach County:

[cane5]

0zhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221108/dea8a38bf10b85d1f3a112941db7c8da.jpg


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18z GFS, EURO, and HWRF all shift S into PBC and the 00z Early TVCN shifts N to Stuart?? Maybe NHC moving GFS & Euro to the bench for Ukmet & Icon??

I’d love to see UKmet and ICON get center stage….