ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheHurricaneGod]

[Teban54]

Surprised to see both winds and pressure lower than NHC estimate.

My guess is winds haven't caught up with the pressure yet, especially given the hiccups with eyewall(s) this afternoon.

It's also possible that stronger winds exist in other quads.

[skillz305]

The strange early ERC looks to have completed you can see the old eye rotating around in there. the outer eyewall is contracting and eyewall is becoming stronger and more circular. RI is fully under way.


https://i.ibb.co/CnNLPkn/ezgif-com-gif-maker-53.gif

Do you think it's a wobble N or ?

[Nimbus]

Stay safe my Florida peeps, especially those in the Tampa area which looks to be facing a catastrophic storm surge setup.

Ian just tracking half a degree further west and Tampa bay would be out of the eyewall winds.

[johngaltfla]

Stay safe my Florida peeps, especially those in the Tampa area which looks to be facing a catastrophic storm surge setup.

Thanks EJ. This is one of those storms which is going to terrify everyone here for at least 48 hours. Not going to be a fun two days.

[Aric Dunn]

The strange early ERC looks to have completed you can see the old eye rotating around in there. the outer eyewall is contracting and eyewall is becoming stronger and more circular. RI is fully under way.


https://i.ibb.co/CnNLPkn/ezgif-com-gif-maker-53.gif

Do you think it's a wobble N or ?

Yeah just wobbling around. they do this when they deepen rapidly.

[emeraldislenc]

It always amazes me how a few always question the NHC. In the end the NHC got it right about the intensity or maybe even underestimated the intensity. The pros at the NHC do a great job! Hats off to them'

[Chemmers]

Basically means if you don't evacuate emergency personnel are not going to put their lives in danger to help you when it hits the fan

I won’t wait till it’s too late. my friend telling me i need to leave at 9 and there will be no weather yet so i’m like wait a few hours. i will obey the law but not sure if i hv to leave at 9

If you are planning to wait for the weather that will be too late to evacuate

Remember since it might be so slow moving like you might be in it for 24 hours

[NDG]

11 mb drop in just 5.5 hour is pretty impressive.

[aspen]

What’s been going on with NOAA recon data as of late? Usually they don’t have the same communication issues as the AF planes, but they’ve occasionally been spotty with Fiona and now Ian.

Also I am eating my words about Ian’s Cat 2 intensity.

[Nimbus]

The strange early ERC looks to have completed you can see the old eye rotating around in there. the outer eyewall is contracting and eyewall is becoming stronger and more circular. RI is fully under way.


https://i.ibb.co/CnNLPkn/ezgif-com-gif-maker-53.gif

Do you think it's a wobble N or ?

Yeah just wobbling around. they do this when they deepen rapidly.[/quote]

How far west is Ian going to track before he turns due north?
-85W doesn't seem as likely now with the consensus.

[ConvergenceZone]

Surprised to see both winds and pressure lower than NHC estimate.

but don't the winds usually take awhile to catch up to the pressure? and I don't think that the NHC was forecasting IAN to hit 120 MPH until tomorrow morning, and that's only 20 MPH from here...

[Aric Dunn]

Do you think it's a wobble N or ?

Yeah just wobbling around. they do this when they deepen rapidly.

How far west is Ian going to track before he turns due north?
-85W doesn't seem as likely now with the consensus.[/quote]

NHC track is probably about right. forecasting wobbles is near impossible. Once they are happening you can determine about when they will stop. but looks like it should pass over the flat part of western cuba as it turns north.

[cycloneye]

Breaking news= NOAA= 967 mbs.

666
URNT12 KWBC 262242
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022
A. 26/22:03:32Z
B. 20.35 deg N 083.28 deg W
C. 700 MB 2824 m
D. 967 mb
E. 280 deg 14 kt
F. SPIRAL BAND
G. NA
H. 61 kt
I. 323 deg 25 nm 21:57:32Z
J. 045 deg 61 kt
K. 324 deg 29 nm 21:56:28Z
L. 80 kt
M. 129 deg 17 nm 22:08:40Z
N. 221 deg 87 kt
O. 133 deg 20 nm 22:09:41Z
P. 11 C / 3081 m
Q. 17 C / 3085 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 1345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA3 1709A IAN OB 09
MAX FL WIND 87 KT 133 / 20 NM 22:09:41Z

[NDG]

Eye drop supports 966 mb and the 87 kt FL winds + 80 kt SFMR is at least good enough for 80 kt. Probably also supports 85 kt due to undersampling.

I am sure the AF recon will find stronger winds in the NE eyewall than in the SE eyewall that the NOAA recon sampled.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy just reported a spiral band eye character.
1st time I have seen that.

[d3v123]

I’m very close to pulling the trigger on evacuating. I’m not in an evacuation zone, but this just doesn’t look like something I wanna put my family through if worst case scenario happens here in the Tampa area

[sweetpea]

Miss Piggy just reported a spiral band eye character.
1st time I have seen that.

What does that mean? First time I ever heard that.

[skyline385]

Brown actually got into quite a bit of intense discussion with Webb earlier regarding the wobbles. Short story, these are random wobbles and dont really effect the forecast as even the official locations from recon could be 0.1-0.3° off.

 https://twitter.com/DBrownie23/status/1574472067935662080

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/reid_lt/status/1574521582009073664




Trough is further south than Model's indicated. Expect more East shifts