ATL: IAN - Models

[SFLcane]

Gfs AGAIN shifts eastward a few more shifts it’s gonna ridge the westcoast of Florida.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nam 3km is the ultimate troll. I wonder if it will ever be close to verifying. Its usually a 100mb or so too deep

[Torgo]

Nam 3km is the ultimate troll. I wonder if it will ever be close to verifying. Its usually a 100mb or so too deep

It wasn't far off with Harvey.

[toad strangler]

Nam 3km is the ultimate troll. I wonder if it will ever be close to verifying. Its usually a 100mb or so too deep

It wasn't far off with Harvey.

Blind Squirrel / Nut

[hohnywx]

Any of you all want a good laugh check out the NAM 3 KM 18Z

https://i.imgur.com/3pQhdGN.png

Over under on this one?

Only a 100mb drop in six hours.

[kevin]

Nam 3km is the ultimate troll. I wonder if it will ever be close to verifying. Its usually a 100mb or so too deep

Ah yes leave it to NAM to get this to *checks notes* 865 mb

[Michele B]

Beyond just the wind, that would be an absolutely insane rain event for the Tampa Bay area.

Anything up river is just going to compound the flooding of the Peace River going on now.

[SFLcane]

Should pull the Tcvn consensus again east for the 00z models

[SFLcane]

GEFS trending eastward some members suggesting it could ride up the coast.

[Nimbus]

Recon found the position maybe half a degree east of the 18Z GFS 6 hour forecast position but GFS was forecasting 1000 mb and recon found 989. See what that does in the next model run.
Edit to add:

Does anyone have the “Beta and Advection Models” BAMD BAMM BAMS?
Deeper storm may track differently south of Cuba?

[shah83]

Strong system will go north a bit more and bounce west against stiffer part of the high that will guide it around--as opposed to a weaker system more straightforward NW.

[Frank P]

Nam 3km is the ultimate troll. I wonder if it will ever be close to verifying. Its usually a 100mb or so too deep

Ah yes leave it to NAM to get this to *checks notes* 865 mb

https://i.imgur.com/hIq8D60.png

Well I’m not a believer in the NAM per se, but I posted the 18z NAM at h60 and it didn’t look anything like yours. I got mine from Pivotal, which overall is basically consistent with most of the eastern model runs..

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF running, already too weak

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nam 3km is the ultimate troll. I wonder if it will ever be close to verifying. Its usually a 100mb or so too deep

Ah yes leave it to NAM to get this to *checks notes* 865 mb

https://i.imgur.com/hIq8D60.png

Well I’m not a believer in the NAM per se, but I posted the 18z NAM at h60 and it didn’t look anything like yours. I got mine from Pivotal, which overall is basically consistent with most of the eastern model runs..
https://i.ibb.co/0r13dYz/65-A4-E82-E-CDB4-4-CC3-B5-C7-C263-C0-C61-E03.jpg

The nam 3km is what we are talking about. It is a convectional allowing model as opposed to the regional nam model. Its used for tornadoes and severe weather predictions.

[SFLcane]

[cane5]

Misses the trough again and gets stuck under the high pressure building behind it. GFS just wants it to miss the escape route each time but it's feeling the tug more and more each run

You have essentially a squeeze play where the high pressure to the west and the high in the atlantic coupled with a digging trough in the middle is absolutely making these model runs easy to call it a Florida storm but there is no storm yet in the classic sense so any model has to be less in play at least for the next 24 hours.That is a amateurs opinion.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Trend, which will be very similar to the GFS