ATL: EARL - Models

[sma10]

The 12z Euro basically agrees with the 12z UK in that a very weakened 91L is tracking further west. Indeed, the UK is even more to the SW, around the Exhumas at 168 hrs. The tradeoff of course for this more threatening track is a much more benign system

[tolakram]

Full 12Z run.

[Blown Away]

12z HMON... Finishes heading almost due W last few frames as a Cat 1/2 hurricane, decent SW shift.

[Blown Away]

12z


18z

A few strays in the mix now.

[BobHarlem]

18z gfs recurves 9i1L similarly to 12z, however it's slower by about 18 hours.

[Blown Away]

18z gfs recurves 9i1L similarly to 12z, however it's slower by about 18 hours.

That’s a big difference between 2 runs. Not sure if slower means recurving earlier or if further delays allow more W movement.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET is a little SSE of the 12Z, but it weakens it at hour 24 and doesn't bring it back like it did on the 12Z:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 50.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2022 0 15.1N 50.0W 1008 26
1200UTC 31.08.2022 12 15.3N 50.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 01.09.2022 24 CEASED TRACKING

[ElectricStorm]

0z HWRF quite a bit more aggressive than 18z so far, 979mb valid 12z 9/2 compared to 1009mb at the same timeframe on the 18z run.

0z HMON also much more aggressive than 18z as well, 989mb valid 18z 9/2 compared to 1005mb on the 18z run.

[aspen]

0z HWRF quite a bit more aggressive than 18z so far, 979mb valid 12z 9/2 compared to 1009mb at the same timeframe on the 18z run.

0z HMON also much more aggressive than 18z as well, 989mb valid 18z 9/2 compared to 1005mb on the 18z run.

Both have moved development much earlier — about 36-39 hours out on September 1st — and end with a 950s major hurricane. That is a massive shift from their much more conservative runs over the last few days, showing development on 9/3 and ending with anything from a weak TS to a weak C1, not a major.

[aspen]

All global models show a rather sharp recurve to the east of Bermuda, quite a shift from just a few days ago. The GFS shows by far the quickest and sharpest recurve; the other models slow 91L down near the Bahamas for a bit before heading off to the NE.

[aspen]

HWRF is still overkill and is initializing 91L as a much more organized system than it actually is due to that convective blow up last night.

Looks like 91L could deal with some upwelling problems at around 5-6 days out, because the HWRF and other models show it slowing down significantly as the steering currents weaker and shift.

[Kingarabian]

Big change on the 12z CMC compared to the last 5 runs. Model has it north of PR for quite a while. Trough has trouble picking it up. Will probably lift NE eventually.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS makes this a 950s MB hurricane before bombing out at 929 MB bomb cyclone.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the models are going to move west. 91L was supposed to pulled slightly in a more northerly direction by an ULL, but that has not happened and 91L is moving underneath of it now without much of any northward pull. I want to see how the next runs initialize this.

[ElectricStorm]

12z HWRF has this becoming a TS tonight and a hurricane by tomorrow night. Yeah not sure about that one

12z HMON has it slowly getting organized over the next few days. Seems more reasonable to me, I do think this will become a hurricane, but probably not in the next 36-40 hours like HWRF shows.

It is starting to look pretty good though, if it keeps this up we could have a TD or TS pretty soon

[aspen]

12z HWRF has this becoming a TS tonight and a hurricane by tomorrow night. Yeah not sure about that one

12z HMON has it slowly getting organized over the next few days. Seems more reasonable to me, I do think this will become a hurricane, but probably not in the next 36-40 hours like HWRF shows.

It is starting to look pretty good though, if it keeps this up we could have a TD or TS pretty soon

The HWRF has probably been fooled by last night’s convective blow up. It thought that was the system becoming a TD (it wasn’t), and now it thinks 91L is far more organized and convectively active than it actually is. I’m expecting the HWRF to backtrack on its aggressive solutions and eventually show something closer to the HMON.

[aspen]

Yes HWRF, a 120 kt Cat 4 on Sunday would be entertaining. No that’s not gonna happen.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET is either totally out to lunch (likely) or else 91L could possibly become a legit concern for the CONUS.

First, here's the text output showing "ceased tracking" at hour 84 while then moving WNW just NE of the Leewards (nothing remarkable here):

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 51.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2022 0 15.2N 51.1W 1009 24
0000UTC 01.09.2022 12 16.2N 51.5W 1009 22
1200UTC 01.09.2022 24 17.1N 53.2W 1008 25
0000UTC 02.09.2022 36 17.5N 55.3W 1008 23
1200UTC 02.09.2022 48 17.8N 57.5W 1009 26
0000UTC 03.09.2022 60 18.1N 59.8W 1009 26
1200UTC 03.09.2022 72 19.1N 61.6W 1010 28
0000UTC 04.09.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

But this is where it gets interesting. The model keeps it as a trackable surface low that then moves only a little N of due between 72 and 144 hours. That gets the low to a position that is well SW of dynamic model consensus near 21.7N, 75.5 W (just north of E Cuba) then moving due west: look between the "A" and the "L" of pivotal on the lower right corner. Again, it is likely way out to lunch but I'm posting it for the record just in case:

[sma10]

The 12Z UKMET is either totally out to lunch (likely) or else 91L could possibly become a legit concern for the CONUS.

First, here's the text output showing "ceased tracking" at hour 84 while then moving WNW just NE of the Leewards (nothing remarkable here):

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 51.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2022 0 15.2N 51.1W 1009 24
0000UTC 01.09.2022 12 16.2N 51.5W 1009 22
1200UTC 01.09.2022 24 17.1N 53.2W 1008 25
0000UTC 02.09.2022 36 17.5N 55.3W 1008 23
1200UTC 02.09.2022 48 17.8N 57.5W 1009 26
0000UTC 03.09.2022 60 18.1N 59.8W 1009 26
1200UTC 03.09.2022 72 19.1N 61.6W 1010 28
0000UTC 04.09.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING

But this is where it gets interesting. The model keeps it as a trackable surface low that then moves only a little N of due between 72 and 144 hours. That gets the low to a position that is well SW of dynamic model consensus near 21.7N, 75.5 W (just north of E Cuba) then moving due west: look between the "A" and the "L" of pivotal on the lower right corner. Again, it is likely way out to lunch but I'm posting it for the record just in case:

https://i.imgur.com/0wXVvKs.png

Larry, I would consider it as an outlier solution, slightly less inflammatory than out to lunch

I think this is because the UK is just giving us an alternative solution - what happens if 91L just does not develop at all for the next several days? Is it likely - no. But it has been as equally consistent as the powerfully developed version that the GFS has shown

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile, the 12z ECMWF finishes 240 hours drifting just NE of Bahamas...

Sametime, the 12z GFS is @1800 miles NE of ECMWF at 240 hours...