ATL: NICOLE - Models

[gatorcane]

HAFS:

[Category5Kaiju]

HAFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/BbTc8Myg/hafs-ref-17-L-fh3-69.gif

My lord, Nicole really gets her act together near the Bahamas all into Florida.

[Spacecoast]

HAFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/BbTc8Myg/hafs-ref-17-L-fh3-69.gif

That is a major shift south from the 12z, (which was a huge NE outlier)

[Blown Away]

0zhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221108/dea8a38bf10b85d1f3a112941db7c8da.jpg


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18z GFS, EURO, and HWRF all shift S into PBC and the 00z Early TVCN shifts N to Stuart?? Maybe NHC moving GFS & Euro to the bench for Ukmet & Icon??

I’d love to see UKmet and ICON get center stage….

Lol, Cane5 you’ve expressed your fondness of the Icon & Ukmet and yes Icon did well with Ian. For me so many years of stubborn Icon & Ukmet tracks that ultimately cave to Euro/GFS, many many more examples than an Icon Ian victory.

[cane5]

18z GFS, EURO, and HWRF all shift S into PBC and the 00z Early TVCN shifts N to Stuart?? Maybe NHC moving GFS & Euro to the bench for Ukmet & Icon??

I’d love to see UKmet and ICON get center stage….

You got me I am really new to this as far as anything I know but the euro and the GFS. watch ICON lay an egg on this one.

[Coolcruiseman]

00z looks to have crept a little north?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_00z.png

[eastcoastFL]

00z looks to have crept a little north?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_00z.png

The new track just came out it’s a little north coming in around Port St. Lucie now.

[caneseddy]

00Z GFS comes in holding serve with landfall around WPB

[BobHarlem]

0z icon, tad south of 18z into Vero Beach, gets back into the Gulf n of Spring hill and stays out there a bit longer than the 18z, before landfall in the Big Bend.

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs coming in 5mb stronger than 18z as of the 27 hour mark. Init was 1000mb vs 998mb in the advisory (and whatever recon finds tonight), for what its worth.

[BobHarlem]

0z gfs stronger this time, clips in through WPB, gaining strength at landfall, (next frame after this one has 983mb inland, lake Okeechobee?) then exits into the gulf around spring hill and heads up towards St. Marks.

[Blown Away]

0z gfs stronger this time, clips in through WPB, gaining strength at landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/sadTS42.png

[Blown Away]

00z CMC… Landfall near Ft Pierce

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: This is even more of a northern outlier with landfall Cape Canaveral vs slightly south of CC on 12Z run. 0Z is about 20 miles north of 12Z landfall and is slightly stronger. This track is 30+ miles further north than all 31 0Z GEFS members!

This initialized at 26.9N, 70.7W. The NHC actual position then was 26.7N, 70.8W. So, it initialized ~15 miles NNE of actual, which is not too far off.

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 70.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.11.2022 0 26.9N 70.7W 1001 36
1200UTC 08.11.2022 12 27.7N 72.2W 1000 38
0000UTC 09.11.2022 24 27.0N 74.3W 998 42
1200UTC 09.11.2022 36 26.9N 76.1W 997 43
0000UTC 10.11.2022 48 27.3N 78.3W 995 47
1200UTC 10.11.2022 60 28.8N 81.3W 993 42
0000UTC 11.11.2022 72 29.9N 83.4W 995 32
1200UTC 11.11.2022 84 32.3N 83.7W 1000 29
0000UTC 12.11.2022 96 37.6N 79.7W 996 33
1200UTC 12.11.2022 108 43.8N 72.7W 984 40
0000UTC 13.11.2022 120 47.8N 61.5W 979 52
1200UTC 13.11.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

[AdamFirst]

00z HWRF into Port Saint Lucie. 976mb, very ominous looking structure.

[LarryWx]

Based on the 24 hour maps, my best guess is that the 0Z Euro is landfalling slightly north of the 18Z. Will see what 6 hour maps show in a bit.

Edit: Confirmed. It looks close to Ft. Pierce.

[cane5]

So based on these latest runs the greater Miami area safe to say dodges a bullit again. Irma was not very impactful. Our last impactful Hurricane was Wilma and before that Andrew one of the most devastating Hurricanes in history but that was a long time ago. For anything else we had 3 Hurricanes in a row in the 60’s Donna, Cleo and Betsey. All in all in my 67 years as a native we have defied the greater odds.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z HAFS, 971mb into the Treasure Coast.


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[SouthFLTropics]

06z GFS, landfall Jupiter, 979mb… think that may be the strongest landfall from the GFS yet.


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[AxaltaRacing24]

06z GFS, landfall Jupiter, 979mb… think that may be the strongest landfall from the GFS yet.


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IDK how to feel about the GFS and Euro being this far south. Are the ICON and others onto something this time? Seems like they could be?