ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

But cat 2 starts at 96 mph.

That's knot relevant.

95 knots at flight level is not enough for a Cat 2 once is reduced for surface wind estimates, which equal around 90-95 mph at the surface.

What’s the reduction here? If it’s 0.9, that’s 85.5kt

[Iceresistance]

Just technical FYI - "cooling" is the word you're looking for, as the darker reds represent colder cloud tops.

Its actually west of that. Its the blue now turning white

That looks like another dry slot to me

Did the Dry Slot per chance eroded the outer eyewall that tried to form?

[sbcc]

Rain across south Florida getting more and more persistent.


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

what radar site is this please?

It's a composite of multiple sites in Florida on the South West Florida Water Management District website.

Edited to add https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[chaser1]

What does that mean? First time I ever heard that.

Very unusual.
Anybody have a clue?

It's had a spiral character since the very start, and so far has not closed off an eyewall. Levi Cowan discussed this in his video. This is apparently something not common, but it happens.

Sounds paratactically "tornadic" in design. Rather then a cohesive vertical wall or core, it sounds like a result of unusually rapid updrafts perhaps??? This would seem like a very Morpheus condition conducive to very rapid deepening but also very rapid weakening as well because of the lack of a well established inner core that might otherwise wind down more steadily.

[ElectricStorm]

But cat 2 starts at 96 mph.

That's knot relevant.

95 knots at flight level is not enough for a Cat 2 once is reduced for surface wind estimates, which equal around 90-95 mph at the surface.

I've always thought it was a 0.9 reduction, which would support 85kts. Either way, it's clear from SFMR and the eyewall drops that the winds are not quite mixing all the way down yet

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

AF301

Eye Character: Open in the west
Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
Inner Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
Outer Eye Diameter: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)

[NDG]

Everyone go to the Model Thread, 18z Euro coming out way to the right of previous runs.

Edit: Based on radar and recon, Ian has been moving almost due north the last couple of hours.

[crimi481]

Naples to Sarasota - based on the stronger trough -front.

[MGC]

972mb at 5pm advisory, 966mb at 7:21 VDM. Pressure dropping around 2+ mb/hr. (if my math is correct). Ian should continue to deepen until landfall in Cuba. Lets see if Cuba disrupts Ian's inner core tonight......MGC

[Blown Away]

Since 5pm .5 North .1 West, almost due N.

[Iceresistance]

AF301

Eye Character: Open in the west
Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
Inner Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
Outer Eye Diameter: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)

Never heard of Concentric before.

[CronkPSU]

Everyone go to the Model Thread, 18z Euro coming out way to the right of previous runs.

Edit: Based on radar and recon, Ian has been moving almost due north the last couple of hours.

I KNOW no two storms are alike and each system is completely different with different setups but how can one not be thinking of Charley after seeing that and UKMET???

[Keldeo1997]

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the NOAA plane is already done, that was a pretty short mission. AF plane still in there though

[GCANE]

Recon fix is about 40 miles east of forecast track,'
A real trend

[jlauderdal]

4 towers in each quad... next phase of RI appears to be underway.. eye much less ragged.

Good example here why wobbles matter

[wx98]

AF301

Eye Character: Open in the west
Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
Inner Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
Outer Eye Diameter: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)

Never heard of Concentric before.

This is a very common term and it usually comes up with each hurricane.

[wx98]

Looks like the NOAA plane is already done, that was a pretty short mission. AF plane still in there though

They're always short. I sometimes wonder why they even waste their time. All the AF planes get 4-5 passes in this range.

[skillz305]

The EURO model 18z just shows ian pulling thru central florida. oh god.