ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Hello there little Eye friend giving it first wink at us..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Do my eyes deceive me or did the track shift East on the NHC graphic for the 8 pm update when compared to the 5 pm?

They don't update the track at the 8PM update. Next track update will be at the 11 PM EST update.

The track doesn't update at 8pm, but the CoC is riding along the eastern edge of the 5pm cone per the latest advisory.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Thats a big eye popping out.

[ElectricStorm]

963 extrap this pass

[Teban54]

Extrap 963.0. Ian is deepening again.

IR also looks like it's trying to clear an eye. I really really want to believe it (from a meteorological perspective, not impact - prayers to everyone in its path), but after a day of seeing all kinds of weird evolutions with Ian's eye, I don't know what to believe anymore.

[SFLcane]

Might want to check out the models thread.

[wx98]

963 extrap. 2 mb lower than last pass

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Organization is definitely on the upswing. CDO is considerably more symmetrical. A banding eye is evident. Cat 3 is possible before midnight should this continue.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Now that Ian has fully developed its eyewall, it should be go time.

[Coolcruiseman]

Do my eyes deceive me or did the track shift East on the NHC graphic for the 8 pm update when compared to the 5 pm?

They don't update the track at the 8PM update. Next track update will be at the 11 PM EST update.

No track update, but they do update the position. Notice the little tail turned E, that represents the 8pm position being E of the 5pm track.

Thanks. I had missed looking at the 5 pm graphic which shifted from 11 am.

[GCANE]

Rain rate increasing as well,
Up to about 45 mm/hr.
Latent heating steadily warming the core.

[ElectricStorm]

Winds in the NW quad are much better than the last mission, wind field continues to improve

[bcargile]

Too bad this is going to hit the best cigar tobacco fields in the world.

If there’s any good news, I expect the tobacco harvests are complete by now…

[InfernoFlameCat]

The inner eyewall will not give up. More convection is popping in the eye.

[GCANE]

Too bad this is going to hit the best cigar tobacco fields in the world.

If there’s any good news, I expect the tobacco harvests are complete by now…

Thank God. I'll take another double shot of rum to celebrate.

[aspen]

Pressure continues to fall despite the ongoing eyewall struggle. Drop of 964/21 supports 961-963 mbar.

[otowntiger]

RI has not started it appears to me. Seems to be in a steady state by looking at IR imagery and those underwhelming wind barbs indicating a cat 1 strength storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Wobbling a little more to the left..

[sponger]

Pinar Del Rio gets tagged a lot

Western Cuba has got to be one of the most hit places in the basin.

I am going to light up a Cohiba and have a double shot of rum as a gesture of sympathy

You really are a sweet generous person! I will do the same in solidarity for our Cuban neighbors!