ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looks like no shift east in the track

[FLpanhandle91]

small shift east

https://i.imgur.com/GXcXMxj.png

This is still the 8PM cone.

[verruckt]

small shift east

https://i.imgur.com/GXcXMxj.png

That's still the 8pm

[ElectricStorm]

small shift east

https://i.imgur.com/GXcXMxj.png

That's advisory 15A it hasn't updated yet

[eastcoastFL]

I wouldn't put all your eggs in that particular basket just yet.

It’s not just the point but the angle as it exits and the influence of the trough at that distance created, timing included. Unless that trough is much deeper the models handled that similarly both the Euro and Gfs.

The last euro run the trough looked much deeper and it dug much further south. I don’t know if they’ll shift the track either way but i wouldn’t count on much movement west. Not a lot to support that at the moment.

East again…

Ian continues its north-northwestward trek at about 340/11 kt. The
hurricane is expected to move north-northwestward to northward
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so,
along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. After around
36 hours, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, since there is
considerable divergence of the track models in the 2-3 day
time frame. The guidance also shows considerable slowing of the
forward speed, due to a weakening of the steering currents, when
Ian approaches the west coast of Florida. This slower forward
motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The official
track forecast is adjusted just slightly east of the previous NHC
prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aid, TVCN.

[galaxy401]

Ian looking like a bonafide hurricane now. Here's hoping that crossing Cuba will disrupt him long enough to struggle restrengthening like Gustav did.

[eastcoastFL]

small shift east

https://i.imgur.com/GXcXMxj.png

That's advisory 15A it hasn't updated yet

It just updated. They shifted slightly east

[eastcoastFL]

small shift east

https://i.imgur.com/GXcXMxj.png

This is still the 8PM cone.

The graphic didn’t update but the discussion says slightly east

[johngaltfla]

Still looking bad from Sarasota through the Tampa Bay area. Surge is going to be a major problem. See y'all at 0500. Buckle up fellow Florida Man(s).

[ConvergenceZone]

Here is an in-depth question for anyone that knows the answer. So when the national hurricane center plots what path they think it will take, do the just take an average of the latest model runs? or if not, what would make them lean towards one model more than other? Just wonder what their thought process is.

[NDG]

Forecast track right over Pinellas County now.

[gatorcane]

So a tiny shift east but not much

[Coolcruiseman]

Notice NHC also doesn't take it all the way to 84W, That could have potential implications for a further east track perhaps?

[eastcoastFL]

They’ll probably put warnings up for the center of the state in the morning if things don’t change

[johngaltfla]

Forecast track right over Pinellas County now.

A nightmare for everyone from Venice north into the Bay. This could be one of the most expensive modern hurricanes ever in terms of damage considering the population density and newly built up areas it covers. Let's hope more dry air enters into the picture near the Florida coast but I'm not holding my breath.

[eastcoastFL]

So a tiny shift east but not much

They didn’t fully bite on the latest euro shift. Probably want to see what the overnight models have to say and make any significant adjustments at 5am. It’s going to be a long night at the NHC dealing with this thing and making decisions on warnings. Lots of schools have been holding back on cancellations so far. Our kids school called and said school is on tomorrow but stressed that things could change quickly and we’re not expecting much impacts here.

[MGC]

That track forecast and slow motion will be brutal for the Tampa area.....MGC

[HockeyTx82]

Did it shift East?

[wx98]

Here is an in-depth question for anyone that knows the answer. So when the national hurricane center plots what path they think it will take, do the just take an average of the latest model runs? or if not, what would make them lean towards one model more than other? Just wonder what their thought process is.

They usually try to mirror the TVCN, which is a consensus of major model and has very good verifiability after the fact.

[FLpanhandle91]

Yikes...