ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

They’ll probably put warnings up for the center of the state in the morning if things don’t change

The NHC graphic just show the warnings for the coastal zones, it is up to the individual NWS offices to issue the products (obviously consulting with each other and the NHC) for the inland zones (which typically correspond to counties or portions of counties)... currently quite a bit of inland Florida is in some type of tropical storm/hurricane watch/warning

[ConvergenceZone]

Here is an in-depth question for anyone that knows the answer. So when the national hurricane center plots what path they think it will take, do the just take an average of the latest model runs? or if not, what would make them lean towards one model more than other? Just wonder what their thought process is.

They usually try to mirror the TVCN, which is a consensus of major model and has very good verifiability after the fact.

oh okay, make sense thank you

[Abdullah]

Fort Lauderdale TS Force Wind Speed Probabilities just rose above 50% for the first time

[JtSmarts]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1574598664345067525

[eastcoastFL]

They’ll probably put warnings up for the center of the state in the morning if things don’t change

The NHC graphic just show the warnings for the coastal zones, it is up to the individual NWS offices to issue the products (obviously consulting with each other and the NHC) for the inland zones (which typically correspond to counties or portions of counties)... currently quite a bit of inland Florida is in some type of tropical storm/hurricane watch/warning

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tbw.png

Thanks, do you have a link to that? I don’t know what all the different colors are.

[Poonwalker]

I wouldn't put all your eggs in that particular basket just yet.

It’s not just the point but the angle as it exits and the influence of the trough at that distance created. Unless that trough is much deeper the models handled that similarly both the Euro and Gfs.

Looks like the wobble, wobbled right back. Maybe an illusion?

Maybe but Iam using the radar loop which shows pretty consistent track so far. We shall see. Iam hoping this thing stays well offshore because the shear can then kill it.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a clear bend back more towards the NNW motion. which will take it over the western tip. will be just left of 11p track in a hour or two.

[wx98]

Definitely a clear bend back more towards the NNW motion. which will take it over the western tip. will be just left of 11p track in a hour or two.

https://i.ibb.co/0BV3sfx/ezgif-com-gif-maker-58.gif

It's likely gonna turn due north within the next 2-3 hours. If it doesn't, the latest model runs will all be off.

[Meteorcane]

They’ll probably put warnings up for the center of the state in the morning if things don’t change

The NHC graphic just show the warnings for the coastal zones, it is up to the individual NWS offices to issue the products (obviously consulting with each other and the NHC) for the inland zones (which typically correspond to counties or portions of counties)... currently quite a bit of inland Florida is in some type of tropical storm/hurricane watch/warning

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tbw.png

Thanks, do you have a link to that? I don’t know what all the different colors are.

For the Tampa Bay area office (TBW) centric map go to https://weather.gov/tbw and it will have the legend... for other forecast area centric maps replace "tbw" in the url with the office's identifier (Mfl for miami, Mlb for melbourne etc).

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1574595184804757505

[caneman]

Definitely a clear bend back more towards the NNW motion. which will take it over the western tip. will be just left of 11p track in a hour or two.

https://i.ibb.co/0BV3sfx/ezgif-com-gif-maker-58.gif

It's likely gonna turn due north within the next 2-3 hours. If it doesn't, the latest model runs will all be off.

The Euro is off already. It had it at 83 on the North Cuba coast and it's already at 83.4

[Hammy]

Looks like intensification has halted for the time being, most recent pass is up 1mb

[NDG]

Definitely a clear bend back more towards the NNW motion. which will take it over the western tip. will be just left of 11p track in a hour or two.

https://i.ibb.co/0BV3sfx/ezgif-com-gif-maker-58.gif

18z Euro showed it nicely dancing around the Isle of Youth then head straight north after passing to the west of the Island, then a hint of NNE after that.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Definitely a clear bend back more towards the NNW motion. which will take it over the western tip. will be just left of 11p track in a hour or two.

https://i.ibb.co/0BV3sfx/ezgif-com-gif-maker-58.gif

It's likely gonna turn due north within the next 2-3 hours. If it doesn't, the latest model runs will all be off.

The Euro is off already. It had it at 83 on the North Cuba coast and it's already at 83.4

No. The 18z Euro had it at 83.7

[caneman]

It's likely gonna turn due north within the next 2-3 hours. If it doesn't, the latest model runs will all be off.

The Euro is off already. It had it at 83 on the North Cuba coast and it's already at 83.4

No. The 18z Euro had it at 83.7

Maybe I was looking at an old image. I didn't see a time stamp on it. Edit... I don't think so there is a link on the models page and it shows 18z

[Meteorcane]

As many of your are astutely noting, the Tropical storm force wind probs are creeping up over portions of SE Fl (particularly further north) these are one of the key parameters the local NWS office (and NHC obviously) use in deciding whether to issue tropical products for a county/portion of a county (i.e. a forecast zone). There isn't a hard threshold for any of the products although when they get 40-50%+ it does often result in a warning. My guess is that if the 00Z runs keep a landfall south of Tampa/eastward motion across the Peninsula post landfall we could see some warnings for Palm Beach and maybe Broward.

[Coolcruiseman]

The "tropical storm conditions possible" for Thursday has now updated by the local NWS office to "Hurricane conditions possible" here.

Guess it could get interesting here on the Space Coast.

[eastcoastFL]

Okeechobee county schools will be closed Wednesday

[NDG]

Definitely a clear bend back more towards the NNW motion. which will take it over the western tip. will be just left of 11p track in a hour or two.

https://i.ibb.co/0BV3sfx/ezgif-com-gif-maker-58.gif

It's likely gonna turn due north within the next 2-3 hours. If it doesn't, the latest model runs will all be off.

The Euro is off already. It had it at 83 on the North Cuba coast and it's already at 83.4

18z Euro is doing fine, has it on the spot per the latest recon fix.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon should find some decent pressure falls this pass with a closed donut of convection like that.